ILoveWinter Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 54 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: The Delmarva has been a magnet all season long except for the one storm that targeted Florida with the heaviest snow (never thought I'd ever say that). Patterns tend to be sticky, it’ll snow where it’s been snowing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 The 12z GGEM shows > 10" snow in Norfolk and 1.5" for NYC. Since 1895, there have been 11 snowstorms that brought 10" or more snow to Norfolk. Eight (73%) had < 1" in New York City. The three (27%) with 1" or more, all had 6" or more. The most recent such storm was the Boxing Day Blizzard of 2010. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 12 minutes ago, nycsnow said: Ukie looks like it woulda been nice if it kept going Image Euro's a moderate hit favoring the coast Cmc gfs scrapers Icon big hit Ukie moderate to big hit it appears 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Euro's a moderate hit favoring the coast Cmc gfs scrapers Icon big hit Ukie moderate to big hit it appears I like the fact that the GFS has not been showing a 2 feet Blizzard here yet - should be following the ensembles now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: you are believing this at a week away ? No. I'm just illustrating that the range of possible outcomes is very large using Norfolk as an example. 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 8 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Euro's a moderate hit favoring the coast Cmc gfs scrapers Icon big hit Ukie moderate to big hit it appears Just keep it within a workable distance. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 IMO should be considering the 250mb jet stream which on last nights GFS was just north and over us which means there is room for the surface LP to move north - also shouldn't be taking these OP runs surface LP locations at face value right now....... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 if the EPS has even a clue with this kind of look I think we're in for a significant event 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 23 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Euro's a moderate hit favoring the coast Cmc gfs scrapers Icon big hit Ukie moderate to big hit it appears seems like most guidance is suggesting the surface LP will make it to this LAT and the only question is how close to the coast will it be which will be determined by a number of factors but a negatively tilted trough would help ......... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 22 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: IMO should be considering the 250mb jet stream which on last nights GFS was just north and over us which means there is room for the surface LP to move north - also shouldn't be taking these OP runs surface LP locations at face value right now....... I'm just hoping we don't get this firehose of S/W's that act as a kicker, destructive interference or confluence to suppress it south. That's what ruined it in Jan but in a fast Pacific pattern like this it becomes a lot more likely. If this storm has some space to itself w/o interference it can round the corner. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 45 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Euro's a moderate hit favoring the coast Cmc gfs scrapers Icon big hit Ukie moderate to big hit it appears Thanks for the briefing. Yay! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Some brutal cold out in the Midwest today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 48 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Just keep it within a workable distance. just review some of the threads from the big storms here such as Boxing Day 2010 and the Jan 23rd 2016 storm and so on and see how close we were to figuring it out along with the guidance a week away...we weren't close to a final solution that far out 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 hour ago, psv88 said: Snow eating fog The sun will eat it a lot faster if it comes out now. You'll have an icy cover left tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, NorthShoreWx said: The sun will eat it a lot faster if it comes out now. You'll have an icy cover left tomorrow morning. The sun is awesome though, it makes everything much brighter. If it was sunny and cold it wouldn't melt quickly though, it's the higher dewpoints that are the problem. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 39 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: seems like most guidance is suggesting the surface LP will make it to this LAT and the only question is how close to the coast will it be which will be determined by a number of factors but a negatively tilted trough would help ......... the low pressure only has to make it to the latitude of ACY before it gets shoved due east, a lot of our HECS only made it as far north as ACY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: The sun is awesome though, it makes everything much brighter. If it was sunny and cold it wouldn't melt quickly though, it's the higher dewpoints that are the problem. yep the high dews are eating the pack here-down to about 3 inches 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 12 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: just review some of the threads from the big storms here such as Boxing Day 2010 and the Jan 23rd 2016 storm and so on and see how close we were to figuring it out along with the guidance a week away...we weren't close to a final solution that far out Even Boxing day was a miss 2 days out and Jan 2016, the northern fringe was very much up in the air until go time. The Euro was consistently too far south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: The 12z GGEM shows > 10" snow in Norfolk and 1.5" for NYC. Since 1895, there have been 11 snowstorms that brought 10" or more snow to Norfolk. Eight (73%) had < 1" in New York City. The three (27%) with 1" or more, all had 6" or more. The most recent such storm was the Boxing Day Blizzard of 2010. February 1983 and February 1989 are both on this list, Don? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: The sun is awesome though, it makes everything much brighter. If it was sunny and cold it wouldn't melt quickly though, it's the higher dewpoints that are the problem. I was referring to today's weather. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: February 1983 and February 1989 are both on this list, Don? Doubt Norfolk got 10 in 83 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Chaos to Clarity: Snowstorm Caboose Could be the Big One! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 30 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: February 1983 and February 1989 are both on this list, Don? February 1989 is on the list; February 1983 is not. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 I think the 12z EPS looks excellent for late next week. I couldn't really draw it up much better at this stage unless I wanted to risk mixing with a direct hit. I guess you could ask for slightly longer duration if you were really greedy. But it has high end potential, only modest (for this time range) spread, and lots of good hits among the individuals. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 5 minutes ago, eduggs said: I think the 12z EPS looks excellent for late next week. I couldn't really draw it up much better at this stage unless I wanted to risk mixing with a direct hit. I guess you could ask for slightly longer duration if you were really greedy. But it has high end potential, only modest (for this time range) spread, and lots of good hits among the individuals. 24 hour duration is long enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 36 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Doubt Norfolk got 10 in 83 It didn't. It got 1.1" in 1983. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: It didn't. It got 1.1" in 1983. wow and that was supposed to be one of our most extensive heavy snow events. January 2016 didn't either Don? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: wow and that was supposed to be one of our most extensive heavy snow events. January 2016 didn't either Don? AC on south doesn't do well with benchmark tracks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: AC on south doesn't do well with benchmark tracks The trick for us to stay all snow on HECS is for the storm to make a sharp east turn once it reaches the latitude of ACY. If it gets any farther north it usually mixes or changes over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 48 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said: Chaos to Clarity: Snowstorm Caboose Could be the Big One! Snowstorm Caboose is a new one. Phase 8 induced snowstorm Caboose. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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