EastonSN+ Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Heights over western N/A are the challenge. This situation leading and during the 20th needs that component to improve, otherwise this will be another modeling challenge over the week with both spatial-temporal aspect, and just spacial synoptic interference issues. It's a bit frustrating because from what I am seeing, the basal hemisphere is a little less compressed ( less is definitely better! ). You can see in the 00z 500 mb height cinema of all three, Euro/CMC/GFS, how the SPV fragment really tries to tuck into the S/stream, but because the flow geometry lacks that meridian restoring ( better ridge west --> constructive depth feedback in the east), the situation ends up stretched looking with the triggered cyclone escaping ENE in the CMC/GFS. The only real difference between the Euro and these misses is the Euro actually gets the thread through the needle's eye on 00z stab. But again ... the flow overall is -d(gradient), and so if a ridge were to materialize over the west, that whole downstream situation would be slower/more proficiency compared to these bottle rocket smear troughs of the last month Good analysis from Tip. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 fwiw: The basics so far in rainfall essentially the first 12 days of the month...heading for monthly 3.5-4"...pretty good for the GEFS way back around 1/31 (seen in Pivotal) Also added the 240 hr BOM snowfall. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 As usual click for clarity... so for Feb about 30" so far in the Adirondacks and attached for I84 and NYC metro. Not bad... our Long Islanders northward hopefully continue relatively happy with Feb snow. Am pretty sure our ne PA/NNJ folks will catch up. Have a day...back at 530P. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Gefs mjo stalls in 8 while euro mjo goes into 1. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 There's a LOT of hype by the social media cowboy click weather enthusiasts for next week. Good lord! If all of their weeks out predictions came true I'd be sitting on 70 inches this season. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 What is the EURO AI showing for 2/20? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 10 minutes ago, snowman19 said: What is the EURO AI showing for 2/20? Close miss offshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 34 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gefs mjo stalls in 8 while euro mjo goes into 1. Both are too close for the circle of death during the 20th of feb 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 37 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said: There's a LOT of hype by the social media cowboy click weather enthusiasts for next week. Good lord! If all of their weeks out predictions came true I'd be sitting on 70 inches this season. Social Media is the "Wild West" of forecasting. Anyone can put up an account and forecast. Many do. No verification is provided. Thus, there's no forecasting accountability. Moreover, the existing model is engagement-based and hype draws engagement. If one is looking for a major to blockbuster snowstorm, Cluster 2 is what one wants to see. It's that cluster that has seen storms bring significant to major snowfalls from Washington, DC to Boston during the second half of February. Below is the composite for KU snowstorms from February 8-29 (1950-2024): All the storms were Category 4 storms on the NESIS scale with only the February 2006 storm being a Category 3. Key Themes: 1. Cluster 2 and the more expansive timeframe both feature a deep trough in the vicinity of the Gulf of Alaska/off the Pacific Northwest and one over northeastern North America. 2. Cluster 2 and the more expansive timeframe also have a trough in the southern Plains. Synoptic details, whether one is looking for surface features or 500 mb vorticity, are really not reliable beyond 3 days (and sometimes fewer days). Thus, posted snowfall maps from 7-8 days out are really not very useful. Ensembles are more skillful. The ensembles suggest that the potential for snow exists for next week somewhere in the Middle Atlantic and/or southern New England regions. Pattern differences, including differences from the Clusters shown above, and the differences among the individual ensemble members suggest that it is far too soon to know whether there will be a moderate, significant, or major snowstorm, much less where the heaviest snows would fall were such a storm to materialize. Acknowledging the uncertainty and highlighting the limits of what is currently known does not generate excitement/engagement on Social Media. That reality, even as it is good forecasting practice, is exploited by those who hype without accountability. Finally, I'd like to see less ridging out in the Pacific Northwest region. With the shorter wave lengths, the kind of ridging that can work well in January can lead to more suppressed solutions during the second half of February. 4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 26 minutes ago, snowman19 said: What is the EURO AI showing for 2/20? Here are the maps: 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 3 hours ago, Ji said: What are you doing here? Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Well I often bounce around to various forums when there's a potential threat thst we both are tracking.. I guess it would've been better to quote it and put it in our forum, but...does it matter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 @donsutherland1 don….what do you mean by social media forecasting is the Wild West? 2 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 minutes ago, Ji said: @donsutherland1 don….what do you mean by social media forecasting is the Wild West? If tik tok was right I’d be at 250” by now this year 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: Was what we had in 08-09, 09-10, 10-11, 13- 14, 14-15, also a response to the low points in snowfall in 06-07, 07-08 and 11-12? All the past 6 year snowfall period slumps across our local stations occurred in a colder era. So it was easier to achieve near to above 50” snowfall to break the droughts. But we haven’t been cold enough since the 15-16 super El Niño for such high snowfall totals in NYC. Even this winter being colder than the last several have run into p-type issues near the coast. So combined with the less favorable tracks and not having enough cold ahead of the storms will be challenging to get enough cold next 3 winters and an active BM storm track to reach 50” near NYC. Remember even in 20-21 NYC couldn’t make it to 50” due to mixing issues and warmth around some of the storm tracks. In a colder climate that would have been an easy 50” year. So the next 3 winters will decide if the 6 year slump through 23-24 will become a 10 year one when this season ends and becomes the 7th year in the series. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: If tik tok was right I’d be at 250” by now this year And yet it still draws in millions of clicks and views, no matter the topic/truth/scenario. Our society has both a social media and sensationalism addiction. Many people seem to thrive off of "extremes" and drama. No wonder we are such an easily manipulated and controlable species. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 i don't like the lack of a sharp western ridge with the 20th storm 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 the euro looks suspicious with such an amped up coastal despite a system over the west 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: LOL I raised this topic a dozen times in the subform looking for anybody to opine. You are the only one to acknowledge that it was ever spoken like it was some kind of voodoo, or the answer is too dangerous for us to know. I keep saying the Indian Ocean is rising in temperatures so we should see an increase in phases 1 and 2 which in the heart of Winter are very cold phases. This is likely why January was so frigid because it was a high amplitude phase 1 and phase 2. That's Indian ocean temperatures. That being said we thought the Indonesian high water temps would lead to a semi-permanent 456 phases however that has not been the case at all this winter. @LibertyBell lol still waiting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Actually liking this weekend for a light to moderate thump more than the 20th (closer and no suppression risk). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Icon is a big hit for the 20th 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 As soon as I hear "kicker" I'm out. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 21 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Icon is a big hit for the 20th Yea would be huge for nyc Long Island if it kept running 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 55 minutes ago, forkyfork said: the euro looks suspicious with such an amped up coastal despite a system over the west Literally every time over the last several winters that we’ve had a “kicker” out west instead of a stout +PNA ridge, it hasn’t ended well here 4 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 3 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Literally every time over the last several winters that we’ve had a “kicker” out west instead of a stout +PNA ridge, it hasn’t ended well here It's a week away. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 ICON, EC, GFS, and ~ 25% of ensemble members have offered snowstorm solutions over the past 2 days for late next week. There is clearly some inter-model support here. Very tenuous with the PV evolution though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Gfs gets moderate snow up to central nj this run. Also a full day earlier than the icon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 55 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: @LibertyBell lol still waiting. I remember there was some discussion about this but it was awhile back, maybe even a year or two ago. I would suggest looking for keywords IO and IOD and Maritime Continent. The funny thing is that there are people reading this thread who participated in that discussion but they haven't responded. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Gfs earlier and looks like garbage 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Amazing hit on the GFS for the Delmarva. What a winter for them. Let's see if it holds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Gfs gets moderate snow up to central nj this run. Also a full day earlier than the icon Our great ones always start out this way, crawling up the coast. Reminds me of Feb 83, Jan 96, PD2, Jan 2016. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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