Allsnow Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 11 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: and we're in the JP now-you want the GFS to be S and E at this range CMC has what you’re looking for 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Lock it in k thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Perfect GFS run but 8 days out. Peaked too early . 0z ICON was heading in a similar direction. Obviously key to get the PV lobe to split off and dive far enough south and west to give room for a ridge near the coast. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 4 hours ago, SRRTA22 said: I haven't seen snow piles this big in a long time! This winter has had a nice wintry feel. '20-'21 had the big February and there were some good winters, bigger storms, in the late 2010s but this has been the most consistent winter with cold and snowcover, albeit not deep snowcover, in about a decade since my favorite winter '13-'14. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said: This winter has had a nice wintry feel. '20-'21 had the big February and there were some good winters, bigger storms, in the late 2010s but this has been the most consistent winter with cold and snowcover, albeit not deep snowcover, in about a decade since my favorite winter '13-'14. 14-15 was a superior winter down here to 13-14 (too many mixed events) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: @Bluewave @DonSutherland1 Seeing a lot of hype on Twitter about the MJO going into phase 1 at the tail end of this month and how that supports a very cold and snowy east. Am I missing something? Here is the composite for MJO phase 1/-ENSO/February: @EastonSN+ Yes, this is a La Niña (-ENSO) It's not a slam dunk either way. Some of the lagged composites have some cold that gives way to milder conditions. There are MJO cases (amplitude 1.0 or above) that have gone both ways. With wave lengths shortening and the seasonal transition getting underway, I'd be especially cautious about making firm conclusions (warm or cold) this far out, especially as MJO forecast skill also drops off markedly beyond 10-14 days. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 This may be the first winter in NYC with 20 days of 1” snowcover and no days of 4” snowcover if we can’t put together a 4”+ event before the season ends. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, bluewave said: This may be the first winter in NYC with 20 days of 1” snowcover and no days of 4” snowcover if we can’t put together a 4”+ event before the season ends. is it also the coldest winter with no 4 inch events? If we do somehow get one major snowstorm just before the season ends 2008-09 will be a great analog for this winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: is it also the coldest winter with no 4 inch events? It’s the lowest seasonal snowfall through 2-12 in over 30 years with an average temperature so far under 35.0°. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 35 minutes ago, Allsnow said: CMC has what you’re looking for A storm during the time-frame has been consistently showing up in models for days. Fairly good model to model and run to run consistency for a long-term threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 February 10th Season update (Ending FEB 10TH) I started working on this Monday so it doesn't include last night. 2 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Euro is late, late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just now, Monmouth_County_Jacpot said: Euro is late, late. Yeah it may not run today. They put out an announcement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 12 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Yeah it may not run today. They put out an announcement Not good for us weather nerds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 hours ago, Brian5671 said: and we're in the JP now-you want the GFS to be S and E at this range GEFS are SE of OP 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 32 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Not good for us weather nerds. it will still run tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 It's hard to tell if the UKMET would turn the corner, but I like where it's at for the end of the run. Big time threat there. Statistically we're probably looking at a hit 1 time in 5 here. A big hit maybe something like 1 in 8. Major snowstorms are uncommon and still more likely than not to miss even with favorable synoptic features in place. The evolution of the elongating PV will determine the outcome. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 hours ago, Monmouth_County_Jacpot said: Ensembles had over 30” for this week didn’t pan out that way Ensembles had 11.5 for a Central Park and they ended up with 5.5 so far. The 360 hours from that ensemble run includes this coming up weekend so if Central Park gets another 2 inches will be at 7.5 which is not far from what the ensembles were showing of 11.5. So not that far off from the ensembles. The problem was a couple of op runs were insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Ensembles had 11.5 for a Central Park and they ended up with 5.5 so far. The 360 hours from that ensemble run includes this coming up weekend so if Central Park gets another 2 inches will be at 7.5 which is not far from what the ensembles were showing of 11.5. So not that far off from the ensembles. The problem was a couple of op runs were insane. You are aware that the GEFS is run every 6 hours right? And therefore the mean total snowfall at 10:1 also changes every 6 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just now, eduggs said: You are aware that the GEFS is run every 6 hours right? And therefore the mean total snowfall at 10:1 also changes every 6 hours... My point was the largest snowfall output on the ensembles was 11.5 for Central Park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 hour ago, The 4 Seasons said: February 10th Season update (Ending FEB 10TH) I started working on this Monday so it doesn't include last night. So NY of my childhood! Always jealous of the friends in Yorktown living in Queens 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 8 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: My point was the largest snowfall output on the ensembles was 11.5 for Central Park. I believe the EPS and GEPS 10-day (240hr) mean total snow got into the 13-15" range for the metro for a few runs. Can't confirm the highest GEFS total for NYC, but some areas were over a foot for run total (384 hr). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Too much of a cold bias in our area for the EPS snow mean in early February as the mixing line usually verifies further north with gradient patterns. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 40 minutes ago, bluewave said: Too much of a cold bias in our area for the EPS snow mean in early February as the mixing line usually verifies further north with gradient patterns. In reality if Central Park gets 2 inches this weekend they will be at 7.5. that's not horrible compared to the ensemble. The gefs at 11.5 this has 12 but that's only a half inch difference. Nobody would have cared if it ended up at 15.5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Rip Euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: In reality if Central Park gets 2 inches this weekend they will be at 7.5. that's not horrible compared to the ensemble. The gefs at 11.5 this has 12 but that's only a half inch difference. Nobody would have cared if it ended up at 15.5. Still too high but better than some of the OP GFS runs. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 52 minutes ago, bluewave said: Too much of a cold bias in our area for the EPS snow mean in early February as the mixing line usually verifies further north with gradient patterns. OT but did you move to CT recently? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 24 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: In reality if Central Park gets 2 inches this weekend they will be at 7.5. that's not horrible compared to the ensemble. The gefs at 11.5 this has 12 but that's only a half inch difference. Nobody would have cared if it ended up at 15.5. I think it's smart to cut amounts in half. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Too much of a cold bias in our area for the EPS snow mean in early February as the mixing line usually verifies further north with gradient patterns. Huh? DCA just had 6-8 last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 6 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Huh? DCA just had 6-8 last night Maybe it wasn't a gradient pattern for them but it is for us because we have an ocean to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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