February 2025

[SACRUS]

 

Closing in on 3 inches of precip liquid

 

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Records:

Highs:
 

EWR: 66 (1960)
NYC: 65 (2009)
LGA: 63 (2009)
JFK: 62 (2009)

 

Low:

 

EWR: -1 (1979)
NYC: -2 (1899)
LGA: 2 (1979)
JFK: 3 (1962)

Historical:

1895: The low temperature was 11 degrees below zero at Moline, Illinois, marking the last of 16 consecutive days on which the low temperature was at or below zero. During the first 11 days of February, Moline's highest temperature was only 13 degrees above zero. Their current average high temperature for early February is in the lower 30s.

1899 - Perhaps the greatest of all arctic outbreaks commenced on this date. The temperature plunged to 61 degrees below zero in Montana. At the same time a "Great Eastern Blizzard" left a blanket of snow from Georgia to New Hampshire. The state of Virginia took the brunt of the storm, with snowfall totals averaging 30 to 40 inches. (David Ludlum)

1983 - The Middle Atlantic Coast States and southern New England were in the midst of a major snowstorm. In Pennsylvania, the storm produced 21 inches at Philadelphia, 24 inches at Harrisburg, and 25 inches at Allentown, establishing record 24 hour totals and single storm totals for those locations. New York City received 22 inches of snow, and 35 inches was reported at Glen Gary, located in the Blue Ridge Mountains of West Virginia. Windsor Locks CT received a record 19 inches of snow in 12 hours. The storm resulted in forty-six deaths, thirty-three of which occurred when a freighter capsized and sank off the Maryland/Virginia coast. Heavy snow was reported from northeastern Georgia to eastern Maine. (10th-12th) (Storm Data) (The Weather Channel)

 

1983: Called the "Megalopolitan blockbuster snowstorm," this major snowstorm impacted the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. Snowfall up to 25 inches fell at Allentown, Pennsylvania. Snowfall amount of 35 inches occurred in parts of the Blue Ridge Mountains of West Virginia at Glen Cary. Windsor Locks, Connecticut, recorded a record 19 inches in 12 hours. A ship sunk off the Virginia/Maryland coast, killing 33. There were 46 total storm-related fatalities. New 24-hour snowfall records were set in Philadelphia, Harrisburg, Allentown, Pennsylvania, and Hartford, Connecticut. Five inches of snow in one hour was recorded at Allentown and Hartford. 

1987 - Denver, CO, reported only their third occurrence of record of a thunderstorm in February. Ten cities in the north central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Huron SD reported February temperatures averaging 19 degrees above normal. Williston ND reported readings averaging 24 degrees above normal for the month. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Bitter cold air gripped the north central U.S. Morning lows of 35 degrees below zero at Aberdeen SD, Bismarck ND and International Falls MN were records for the date. Bemidji MN was, officially, the cold spot in the nation with a low of 39 degrees below zero, however, a reading of 42 degrees below zero was reported at Gettysburg SD. In the Northern High Plains Region, Baker MT warmed from 27 degrees below zero to 40 above. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - While much of the continental U.S. enjoyed sunshine and seasonable temperatures, a strong weather system over the Hawaiian Islands deluged Honolulu with 2.5 inches of rain. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - A winter storm produced up to ten inches of snow in Vermont, and up to nine inches of snow in Aroostook County of northeastern Maine. A three day snowstorm began to overspread Oregon, and the winter storm produced 29 inches of snow at Bennett Pass. Mild weather continued in the central U.S. La Crosse WI reported a record forty-seven consecutive days with temperatures above normal. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2004 - North Dakota Governor John Hoeven declares a snow emergency as winds gusting over 70 mph along with heavy snow produces low visibilities and drifts up to 20 feet in northwestern North Dakota. Amtrak train service is interrupted in the region. The Weather Doctor

2006 - Snowfall records fell in Philadelphia and Allentown, Pennsylvania, Bridgeport and Hartford, Connecticut, Newark, New Jersey, and Worchester and Boston, Massachusetts. The highest total reported was 30.2 inches at Fairfield, CT. New York City set a record one-day snowfall record of 26.9 inches in Central Park.

 

 

 

1899 - Perhaps the greatest of all arctic outbreaks commenced on this date. The temperature plunged to 61 degrees below zero in Montana. At the same time a "Great Eastern Blizzard" left a blanket of snow from Georgia to New Hampshire. The state of Virginia took the brunt of the storm, with snowfall totals averaging 30 to 40 inches. (David Ludlum)

1983 - The Middle Atlantic Coast States and southern New England were in the midst of a major snowstorm. In Pennsylvania, the storm produced 21 inches at Philadelphia, 24 inches at Harrisburg, and 25 inches at Allentown, establishing record 24 hour totals and single storm totals for those locations. New York City received 22 inches of snow, and 35 inches was reported at Glen Gary, located in the Blue Ridge Mountains of West Virginia. Windsor Locks CT received a record 19 inches of snow in 12 hours. The storm resulted in forty-six deaths, thirty-three of which occurred when a freighter capsized and sank off the Maryland/Virginia coast. Heavy snow was reported from northeastern Georgia to eastern Maine. (10th-12th) (Storm Data) (The Weather Channel)

 

1983: Called the "Megalopolitan blockbuster snowstorm," this major snowstorm impacted the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. Snowfall up to 25 inches fell at Allentown, Pennsylvania. Snowfall amount of 35 inches occurred in parts of the Blue Ridge Mountains of West Virginia at Glen Cary. Windsor Locks, Connecticut, recorded a record 19 inches in 12 hours. A ship sunk off the Virginia/Maryland coast, killing 33. There were 46 total storm-related fatalities. New 24-hour snowfall records were set in Philadelphia, Harrisburg, Allentown, Pennsylvania, and Hartford, Connecticut. Five inches of snow in one hour was recorded at Allentown and Hartford. 

 

wow 5 inches of snow per hour and it happened on the anniversary of the great 1899 historic blizzard!!

[Violentweatherfan]

43 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

those systems came from manitoba 

Weren’t they called Manitoba Maulers 

[Stormlover74]

Gfs is 2 to 3 Saturday,  more north, before the changeover/precip shuts off

[forkyfork]

11 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said:

Weren’t they called Manitoba Maulers 

yes

[forkyfork]

i think people have forgotten about them because we don't get them anymore

[LibertyBell]

Just now, forkyfork said:

i think people have forgotten about them because we don't get them anymore

The Saskatchewan Screamers were even better.

[LibertyBell]

17 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

1899 - Perhaps the greatest of all arctic outbreaks commenced on this date. The temperature plunged to 61 degrees below zero in Montana. At the same time a "Great Eastern Blizzard" left a blanket of snow from Georgia to New Hampshire. The state of Virginia took the brunt of the storm, with snowfall totals averaging 30 to 40 inches. (David Ludlum)

1983 - The Middle Atlantic Coast States and southern New England were in the midst of a major snowstorm. In Pennsylvania, the storm produced 21 inches at Philadelphia, 24 inches at Harrisburg, and 25 inches at Allentown, establishing record 24 hour totals and single storm totals for those locations. New York City received 22 inches of snow, and 35 inches was reported at Glen Gary, located in the Blue Ridge Mountains of West Virginia. Windsor Locks CT received a record 19 inches of snow in 12 hours. The storm resulted in forty-six deaths, thirty-three of which occurred when a freighter capsized and sank off the Maryland/Virginia coast. Heavy snow was reported from northeastern Georgia to eastern Maine. (10th-12th) (Storm Data) (The Weather Channel)

 

1983: Called the "Megalopolitan blockbuster snowstorm," this major snowstorm impacted the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. Snowfall up to 25 inches fell at Allentown, Pennsylvania. Snowfall amount of 35 inches occurred in parts of the Blue Ridge Mountains of West Virginia at Glen Cary. Windsor Locks, Connecticut, recorded a record 19 inches in 12 hours. A ship sunk off the Virginia/Maryland coast, killing 33. There were 46 total storm-related fatalities. New 24-hour snowfall records were set in Philadelphia, Harrisburg, Allentown, Pennsylvania, and Hartford, Connecticut. Five inches of snow in one hour was recorded at Allentown and Hartford. 

 

wow 5 inches of snow per hour and it happened on the anniversary of the great 1899 historic blizzard!!

In Pennsylvania, the storm produced 21 inches at Philadelphia, 24 inches at Harrisburg, and 25 inches at Allentown, establishing record 24 hour totals and single storm totals for those locations. New York City received 22 inches of snow, and 35 inches was reported at Glen Gary, located in the Blue Ridge Mountains of West Virginia. Windsor Locks CT received a record 19 inches of snow in 12 hours. 

 

the 22 inch total must be from JFK

[cleetussnow]

Sunday cuts through western NY again so that ever so brief trend east is concluded, if there was any doubt.

[Stormlover74]

Just now, cleetussnow said:

Sunday cuts through buffalo again so that ever so brief trend east is concluded, if there was any doubt.

Yeah we're not getting that one. Front end Saturday is our best hope

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yeah we're not getting that one. Front end Saturday is our best hope

whats with all these lows every day? it used to take a week for the atmosphere to recharge between storms.

 

[SACRUS]

14 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

In Pennsylvania, the storm produced 21 inches at Philadelphia, 24 inches at Harrisburg, and 25 inches at Allentown, establishing record 24 hour totals and single storm totals for those locations. New York City received 22 inches of snow, and 35 inches was reported at Glen Gary, located in the Blue Ridge Mountains of West Virginia. Windsor Locks CT received a record 19 inches of snow in 12 hours. 

 

the 22 inch total must be from JFK

21.7 at JFK
17.6 at NYC
22 at LGA
16.1 at EWR

183 Reb 11-12

[weatherpruf]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

over 20-24 inches here, this was THE SNOWSTORM of my childhood!!

I had just turned 20. Already going bald. Oddly, women seemed to like that. Go figure. Guess I looked older.

[EastonSN+]

Lol would be fitting for Ocean City Maryland to get hit again.

Like a magnet.

[EastonSN+]

If I'm not mistaken I think the rule was that a negative AO benefits the Middle Atlantic in the Southeast while the nao benefits us. This would make sense as the nao never really went negative but the AO is going greatly negative hence why the Mid-Atlantic is benefiting. Kind of cut and dry.

[donsutherland1]

For reference, clusters for New York City's 6" or greater snowstorms during the second half of February since 1950:

With shortening wave lengths, it is perhaps not surprising that the biggest storms have featured a deep trough extending from just off Pacific Northwest into the Gulf of Alaska.

[MANDA]

4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

For reference, clusters for New York City's 6" or greater snowstorms during the second half of February since 1950:

With shortening wave lengths, it is perhaps not surprising that the biggest storms have featured a deep trough extending from just off Pacific Northwest into the Gulf of Alaska.

Great stuff.  Thanks.

[LibertyBell]

22 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

For reference, clusters for New York City's 6" or greater snowstorms during the second half of February since 1950:

With shortening wave lengths, it is perhaps not surprising that the biggest storms have featured a deep trough extending from just off Pacific Northwest into the Gulf of Alaska.

How do we do with an extremely negative AO but positive NAO Don?

[LibertyBell]

People talk about types of storms that have become rare, the following type of storm seems to have become extinct

 

https://thestarryeye.typepad.com/weather/2014/11/each-winters-snowstorms-1970-2014.html

 

Jan. 10-12, 1954 - Light snow fell for 39 hours, beginning mid-afternoon on 1/10 and ending in the pre-dawn hours of 1/12.  A total of 8.4" piled up, with 2.2" falling on the 10th, 5.4" accumulating on the 11th, and 0.8" falling on the 12th.  This was the biggest snowfall in five years. 

 

The only two cases of similar storms to a long duration storms like that in my lifetime were these two:

 

Jan. 13, 1982 - A late afternoon/nighttime snowstorm that dumped 5.8" on NYC was the same winter system that affected Washington, DC earlier in the afternoon when an Air Florida jet crashed into the Potomac River minutes after takeoff, killing 78.  The following day an additional 3.5" of snow fell from an "Alberta clipper" that moved through in the evening hours.

 

Feb. 26, 1991 - A surprise snowstorm dumped 8.9" of wet snow, the biggest accumulation in eight years (since 17.6" buried the City on Feb. 11-12, 1983 ).  Because the temperature was just above freezing for much of the day the snow didn't accumulate much on the streets or sidewalks.  This was the winter's third snowfall of five inches or more.

 

 

 

These snowstorms all lasted 36 hours or more.

 

 

 

[TheClimateChanger]

4 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

1983:

 

Impressive, and coming in a very strong El Nino winter, similar to the January 2016 snow storm.

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Impressive, and coming in a very strong El Nino winter, similar to the January 2016 snow storm.

Thats what I compare it too, both were over 20 inches here and a paper written a few years ago indicated the 30 inches plus here in January 2016 was influenced by climate change.

[donsutherland1]

34 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

How do we do with an extremely negative AO but positive NAO Don?

There are no cases during the timeframe where the AO was at or below -1 while the NAO was positive.

[bluewave]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

whats with all these lows every day? it used to take a week for the atmosphere to recharge between storms.

 

This is the extremely fast and active Pacific Jet loaded with individual shortwaves.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

This the extremely fast and active Pacific Jet loaded with individual shortwaves.

Normally we have high pressure come down and push fronts to the south but this hasn't been happening this month.

[bluewave]

13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Normally we have high pressure come down and push fronts to the south but this hasn't been happening this month.

The Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet has been unusually fast across the Western Into the Central US so far this month. Pretty much the opposite of what you want to see for a KU event. If this was an El Niño with a STJ a little further south, then we would probably be looking at a 30” February with the blocking. But past La Ninas usually had the Northern Stream weaken with this type blocking. This fast Northern Stream flow leaves more room for cutters, huggers, and suppressed Southern Stream storm track solutions. So we’ll need to see some relaxation of this jet before the blocking fades later this month in order to get at least one heavy snowfall event closer to the coast.

 

 

 

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Lol would be fitting for Ocean City Maryland to get hit again.

Like a magnet.

That’s the risk next week right there, suppression/OTS. Just based on the 500mb, I don’t think next week is a cutter risk

[LibertyBell]

33 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet has been unusually fast across the Western Into the Central US so far this month. Pretty much the opposite of what you want to see for a KU event. If this was an El Niño with a STJ a little further south, then we would probably be looking at a 30” February with the blocking. But past La Ninas usually had the Northern Stream weaken with this type blocking. This fast Northern Stream flow leaves more room for cutters, huggers, and suppressed Southern Stream storm track solutions. So we’ll need to see some relaxation of this jet before the blocking fades later this month in order to get at least one heavy snowfall event closer to the coast.

 

 

 

If we had this kind of blocking during last year's el nino do you think we would have had much more snowfall, Chris?

 

[donsutherland1]

As of 4:40 pm, it was snowing moderately in Washington, DC and lightly in Baltimore. Flurries had just moved into Philadelphia and Atlantic City. The first snow will reach New York City early tonight.

Light snow is likely in New York City and its nearby suburbs into tomorrow. A general 1"-3" snowfall is likely in New York City and nearby suburbs by the time the snow ends on Wednesday. The south shore of Long Island could pick up 2"-4" of snow. The highest amounts will be south of the City. Amounts will rapidly fall off in the Hudson Valley.

Washington, DC will likely see 4"-8" of snow. If Washington reaches 6" or more, that would be its second 6" or above snowstorm this winter for the first time since Winter 2013-2014.

Another system will follow closely behind. This system will likely bring another light snowfall followed by a fairly quick changeover to sleet and then rain on Thursday. Little or no accumulation is likely in New York City.

After mid-month, a period of much below normal temperatures is likely. A generally colder outcome appears more likely than not during the second half of February. Precipitation will likely be near or somewhat above normal.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around February 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.10°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.72°C. La Niña conditions are underway and will likely persist into the start of spring.

The SOI was +5.04 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.782 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 86% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 32.7° (3.2° below normal).

 

[EastonSN+]

Cold and dry.....

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

Cold and dry.....

I have a feeling tonight's snowfall will be our last decent snowfall for awhile.