Franklin0529 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 26 minutes ago, MJO812 said: What's it showing for Tuesday -wed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 35 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Both models are dicey for the coast. Luckily we have a week to go and 2 events before that. That Tuesday event will be a hit (even if a moderate one), nevermind about the late next week event right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 The CMC storm cutting into PA probably is never going to happen. I'd be more worried about misses south late next week than being too far NW. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I think a lot of people would be happy if we get 3-4 2-4 inch events, every little bit adds up. I think the experience, perception, and details matter. Overperformers can be remembered fondly for years, even if it's just a few inches. And accumulating snow showers the day after a plowable event vastly improves the enjoyment over an event that changes to rain. Four (4) inch events in 10 days would be celebrated. On the other hand, three (2) inch events when people have been salivating about 20-30" 15-day totals might not be fully appreciated. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 For the moment the fear is 1st wave south and 2nd wave north. The dream is two major hits that bleed into each other and extend from Tue to Sat. Individuals ensembles eem to include both scenarios. There will be many adjustments in the days to come, but today seemed like a small step down in magnitude (for next week only). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 The Euro is nice for Tuesday. A nice solid 6 inch snowstorm. I think most of us would sign for that. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 There is no punting to the next event after Valentines Day (VD), at least not clearly marked out to me. We have to get what we can by then and I keep Don's stats in mind when discussing expectations. From what I can tell the snow action primarily shifts to the I84 corridor northward after VD and so I wont' say it's now or never this winter because the pattern suggests more opportunities will emerge the last week of Feb into early March but I'm not confident that we'll be in as good a position as we are now--- and now it's thread the needle. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 2 hours ago, wdrag said: There is no punting to the next event after Valentines Day (VD), at least not clearly marked out to me. We have to get what we can by then and I keep Don's stats in mind when discussing expectations. From what I can tell the snow action primarily shifts to the I84 corridor northward after VD and so I wont' say it's now or never this winter because the pattern suggests more opportunities will emerge the last week of Feb into early March but I'm not confident that we'll be in as good a position as we are now--- and now it's thread the needle. Yeah, the period around the 11-12th may be the best chance for someone in the OKX forecast zones to record a 12”+ total. Statistically February 1 through 15th has featured the highest concentration of 12”+ max events in the OKX forecast zones during the winter since 2010. But the positioning of the gradient and storm track will be key. Roughly 2 week snowfall periods for the 2010's and number of 12"+ snowstorms Oct 29-Nov 15.....3 Nov 16-Nov 30....0 Dec 1- Dec 15.....0 Dec 16-Dec 31....3 Jan1-Jan 15.......4 Jan16-Jan 31.....5 Feb 1-Feb 15.....6 Feb 16-Feb 28...1 Mar 1- Mar 15....6 Mar 16-Mar 31...1 Apr 1-Apr 16.....0 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Just now, bluewave said: Yeah, the period around the 11-12th may be the best chance for someone in the OKX forecast zones to record a 12”+ total. Statistically February 1 through 15th has featured the highest concentration of 12”+ max events in the OKX forecast zones. But the positioning of the gradient and storm track will be key. Roughly 2 week snowfall periods for the 2010's and number of 12"+ snowstorms Oct 29-Nov 15.....3 Nov 16-Nov 30....0 Dec 1- Dec 15.....0 Dec 16-Dec 31....3 Jan1-Jan 15.......4 Jan16-Jan 31.....5 Feb 1-Feb 15.....6 Feb 16-Feb 28...1 Mar 1- Mar 15....6 Mar 16-Mar 31...1 Apr 1-Apr 16.....0 Chris I thought it was more like February 5-20 for double digit snowfall totals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 1 minute ago, bluewave said: Yeah, the period around the 11-12th may be the best chance for someone in the OKX forecast zones to record a 12”+ total. Statistically February 1 through 15th has featured the highest concentration of 12”+ max events in the OKX forecast zones. But the positioning of the gradient and storm track will be key. Roughly 2 week snowfall periods for the 2010's and number of 12"+ snowstorms Oct 29-Nov 15.....3 Nov 16-Nov 30....0 Dec 1- Dec 15.....0 Dec 16-Dec 31....3 Jan1-Jan 15.......4 Jan16-Jan 31.....5 Feb 1-Feb 15.....6 Feb 16-Feb 28...1 Mar 1- Mar 15....6 Mar 16-Mar 31...1 Apr 1-Apr 16.....0 Second peak March 1-15? That can't be new york city, since nowhere in the city has there been a double digit snowfall in March since 1993, which changed to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Just now, LibertyBell said: Chris I thought it was more like February 5-20 for double digit snowfall totals? The 1st half of February has been much more productive since 2010. Individual events and the highest snowfall totals 2022 Jan 28-29….Islip….24.7 2021 Jan 31-Feb 2....Blomingdale, NJ.....26.1 2020 Dec 16-17 East Tremont, NY....12.4 2019 Mar 3-4...Monroe, CT....12.0 2018 Nov 15....Mount Hope, NY.......18.3 Mar 21-22...Patchogue, NY......20.1 Mar 13...Southampton,NY.....18.3 Mar 8....New Farfield, CT..........26.8 Mar 2...Monroe, NY.................14.0 Jan 4...Islip, NY.......................15.8 2017 Mar 14...Montgomery, NY.......23.5 Feb 9...Selden, NY...................16.0 Jan 7...Orient, NY....................12.5 2016 Feb 5...Setauket, NY................12.0 Jan 23..JFK,NY.........................30.5 2015 Feb 2..New Faifield, CT............12.0 Jan 26-27....Orient,NY.............28.5 2014 Feb 13-14...Roselle, NJ............16.7 Jan 21-22....Centerreach,NY....14.0 Jan 2-3......Lindenhurst, NY.....12.5 2013 Mar 8....Harriman,NY..............15.0 Feb 8....Upton, NY..................30.9 2012 Nov 7-8.....Monroe, CT..........13.5 Jan 21......North Haven, CT....12.0 2011 Oct 29.....Harriman, NY.........16.0 Jan 26-27...NYC................... 19.0 Jan 11-12.......Meriden, CT....29.0 2010 Feb 25-26...Mount Hope, NY...27.5 Dec 26........Elizabeth, NJ........31.8 Feb. 10.....Sound Beach, NY....16.2 2009 Dec 19-20....Upton, NY..........26.3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Just now, bluewave said: The 1st half of February has been much more productive since 2010. Individual events and the highest snowfall totals 2022 Jan 28-29….Islip….24.7 2021 Jan 31-Feb 2....Blomingdale, NJ.....26.1 2020 Dec 16-17 East Tremont, NY....12.4 2019 Mar 3-4...Monroe, CT....12.0 2018 Nov 15....Mount Hope, NY.......18.3 Mar 21-22...Patchogue, NY......20.1 Mar 13...Southampton,NY.....18.3 Mar 8....New Farfield, CT..........26.8 Mar 2...Monroe, NY.................14.0 Jan 4...Islip, NY.......................15.8 2017 Mar 14...Montgomery, NY.......23.5 Feb 9...Selden, NY...................16.0 Jan 7...Orient, NY....................12.5 2016 Feb 5...Setauket, NY................12.0 Jan 23..JFK,NY.........................30.5 2015 Feb 2..New Faifield, CT............12.0 Jan 26-27....Orient,NY.............28.5 2014 Feb 13-14...Roselle, NJ............16.7 Jan 21-22....Centerreach,NY....14.0 Jan 2-3......Lindenhurst, NY.....12.5 2013 Mar 8....Harriman,NY..............15.0 Feb 8....Upton, NY..................30.9 2012 Nov 7-8.....Monroe, CT..........13.5 Jan 21......North Haven, CT....12.0 2011 Oct 29.....Harriman, NY.........16.0 Jan 26-27...NYC................... 19.0 Jan 11-12.......Meriden, CT....29.0 2010 Feb 25-26...Mount Hope, NY...27.5 Dec 26........Elizabeth, NJ........31.8 Feb. 10.....Sound Beach, NY....16.2 2009 Dec 19-20....Upton, NY..........26.3 it's very weird to see late October- early November in that list too, that can't be anywhere near the coast lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Mjo wave is looking stronger now on the gefs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Nice look continues on the eps. Not overly suppressive with the block and a slight semblance of a negative EPO. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 3 hours ago, wdrag said: There is no punting to the next event after Valentines Day (VD), at least not clearly marked out to me. We have to get what we can by then and I keep Don's stats in mind when discussing expectations. From what I can tell the snow action primarily shifts to the I84 corridor northward after VD and so I wont' say it's now or never this winter because the pattern suggests more opportunities will emerge the last week of Feb into early March but I'm not confident that we'll be in as good a position as we are now--- and now it's thread the needle. When looking at the ensembles there is definitely a Southeast ridge Spike in the middle of the period. Not sure if this is La Nina driven or merely an intense storm cutting to our West pumping up the Southeast ridge. Thereafter we continue with the trough in the east which aligns with the mjo passage. The look below is not bad at all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonymm Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: When looking at the ensembles there is definitely a Southeast ridge Spike in the middle of the period. Not sure if this is La Nina driven or merely an intense storm cutting to our West pumping up the Southeast ridge. Thereafter we continue with the trough in the east which aligns with the mjo passage. The look below is not bad at all. The only thing that can prevent another below normal winter is a huge ridge out west. Without that all the qpf will underperform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Just now, anthonymm said: The only thing that can prevent another below normal winter is a huge ridge out west. Without that all the qpf will underperform. Yeah below average snowfall winter is favorite at this point given the low snowfall total. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonymm Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Just now, EastonSN+ said: Yeah below average snowfall winter is favorite at this point given the low snowfall total. We have been really lacking in the PNA aspect. In my opinion this is the most important thing for getting a big blockbuster storm nowadays (without block busters we cant get to seasonal averages anymore). Unfortunately nothing is suggesting a pna spike in the near future. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 3 minutes ago, anthonymm said: We have been really lacking in the PNA aspect. In my opinion this is the most important thing for getting a big blockbuster storm nowadays (without block busters we cant get to seasonal averages anymore). Unfortunately nothing is suggesting a pna spike in the near future. For a KU event the Stars need to align usually. Just look at the period from 1970 through 1999. 30 years and only five above average snowfall seasons, and a debatable number of foot plus seasons where the national weather service may be missing a few (in any event nowhere near the amount we saw from 1955 through 1969 or 2000 through 2018, parallel time frames for high snowfall totals and KU events). Five seasons in 30 years. You are correct when you are saying we are in a low snowfall period, with one above average snowfall season, excluding this season for now, in 6 years. Really on track with the aforementioned 30-year period. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 34 / 27 mix of sleet and some rain (#1). 0.5 on the ground. One day warm up Friday then colder satruday with the next snow or mix (#2) well discussed in thread but a 1-3. Near normal Sun - Mon before storm #3 could be a moderate or better snowfall. Additional precip Wed/Thu could be mix/sleet or rain. Beyond there we'll see if the weekend of Feb 14th yields #4. Does seem to be support for a brief but stronger warmup in the 2/16 -218 period but its way out there. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Records: Highs: EWR: 69 (2008) NYC: 68 (2008) LGA: 69 (2008) JFK: 67 (2008) Lows: EWR: 5 (1995) NYC: -4 (1895) LGA: 4 (1995) JFK: 7 (1995) Historical: 1807 - It was the famous "Cold Friday" in the Midwest and South. The temperature did not rise above zero in Ohio and Kentucky. (David Ludlum) 1978 - A massive nor'easter buried the cities of the northeastern U.S. Storm totals included 18 inches at New York City, 16 inches at Philadelphia, and 14 inches at Baltimore. The Boston MA area received 25 to 30 inches in "The Great New England Blizzard" and the mayor outlawed travel in the city for an entire week. (David Ludlum) 1987 - Brownsville, TX, was deluged with seven inches of rain in just two hours, and flooding in some parts of the city was worse than that caused by Hurricane Beulah in 1967. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Arctic cold invaded the south central and eastern U.S. Sixteen cities reported new record low temperatures for the date. Squalls in the Great Lakes Region produced a foot of snow at Arcade NY in three hours. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Forty-one cities in the western U.S. reported new record low temperatures for the date. Lows of -30 degrees at Ely NV and -33 degrees at Richfield UT were all-time records. Morning lows of 31 degrees at San Francisco CA and -15 degrees at Reno NV were records for February. Logan Canyon UT was the cold spot in the nation with a low of 54 degrees below zero, and Craig CO hit 51 degrees below zero. (The National Weather Summary) 1990 - A second cold front brought more heavy snow to the high elevations of Oregon, with 12 inches reported at Sunset Summit. Ten inches of snow blanketed Crater Lake and Mount Bachelor. Heavy snow also blanketed northeastern Nevada and parts of Washington State. In Nevada, up to a foot of snow was reported between Spring Creek and Lamoille. Stevens Pass WA received 14 inches of snow in 24 hours. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 2010 - On February 5-6, a severe nor'easter, commonly referred to as Snowmageddon, impacted the east coast from North Carolina to New York. Some snowfall amounts include; 32.9 inches at Washington Dulles International Airport; 28.5 inches at the Philadelphia International Airport; 21.1 inches at the Pittsburgh International Airport; 18.2 in Atlantic City; Trace in Central Park. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 The Feb 6 Blizzard of 1978 17.7 inches at NYC More https://www.cbsnews.com/pictures/the-blizzard-of-1978/ 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 I had wanted to run the 500 mb composites for NYC's 6" or greater snowstorms during AO-/NAO+ patterns to create clusters. There were 9 such storms. Seven also brought 6" or more to Boston while four also brought 6" or more to Philadelphia (and also Boston). After the 10th, there may be opportunity for a 6"+ snowstorm, but there is no guarantee. New England has a higher probability. The pattern clusters could provide some insight regarding the New York City area. Synoptic details will be crucial, but that information won't become reliable until the closer range when model skill increases. Unfortunately, at present, the site is down. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 4 hours ago, wdrag said: There is no punting to the next event after Valentines Day (VD), at least not clearly marked out to me. We have to get what we can by then and I keep Don's stats in mind when discussing expectations. From what I can tell the snow action primarily shifts to the I84 corridor northward after VD and so I wont' say it's now or never this winter because the pattern suggests more opportunities will emerge the last week of Feb into early March but I'm not confident that we'll be in as good a position as we are now--- and now it's thread the needle. Looks like we will have this weekend and the middle of next week for something substantial. The gradient lifts north for Presidents weekend but will sink back south again after the 16th 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 1 hour ago, SACRUS said: The Feb 6 Blizzard of 1978 17.7 inches at NYC More https://www.cbsnews.com/pictures/the-blizzard-of-1978/ Was that the year we got back to back snowstorms with 24-36 hours of each other (or a double barrel storm)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 45 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: I had wanted to run the 500 mb composites for NYC's 6" or greater snowstorms during AO-/NAO+ patterns to create clusters. There were 9 such storms. Seven also brought 6" or more to Boston while four also brought 6" or more to Philadelphia (and also Boston). After the 10th, there may be opportunity for a 6"+ snowstorm, but there is no guarantee. New England has a higher probability. The pattern clusters could provide some insight regarding the New York City area. Synoptic details will be crucial, but that information won't become reliable until the closer range when model skill increases. Unfortunately, at present, the site is down. This has been the two hardest weeks of my career in science. Sigh... The saying ignorance is bliss has never been more accurate. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Belleayre was great yesterday! Took a much needed day to get out on the slopes. It was hard pack, but great coverage. Can't wait to get back out on the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 46 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: I had wanted to run the 500 mb composites for NYC's 6" or greater snowstorms during AO-/NAO+ patterns to create clusters. There were 9 such storms. Seven also brought 6" or more to Boston while four also brought 6" or more to Philadelphia (and also Boston). After the 10th, there may be opportunity for a 6"+ snowstorm, but there is no guarantee. New England has a higher probability. The pattern clusters could provide some insight regarding the New York City area. Synoptic details will be crucial, but that information won't become reliable until the closer range when model skill increases. Unfortunately, at present, the site is down. Jim Cantore made a bold call today, he said by next Friday, all the snowfall deficits all along the I-95 corridor will be gone. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 We always get very active patterns around the time of these Arctic warming events. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 50 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: I had wanted to run the 500 mb composites for NYC's 6" or greater snowstorms during AO-/NAO+ patterns to create clusters. There were 9 such storms. Seven also brought 6" or more to Boston while four also brought 6" or more to Philadelphia (and also Boston). After the 10th, there may be opportunity for a 6"+ snowstorm, but there is no guarantee. New England has a higher probability. The pattern clusters could provide some insight regarding the New York City area. Synoptic details will be crucial, but that information won't become reliable until the closer range when model skill increases. Unfortunately, at present, the site is down. it's because of elon musk. i'm so angry about it 6 3 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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