Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Miss the PBP in this thread. Sad I have to go to the mid-Atlantic forum together it 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Just now, Monmouth_County_Jacpot said: Miss the PBP in this thread. Sad I have to go to the mid-Atlantic forum together it Nowadays everyone has access to the models but I understand bc I always liked it to. Don't really understand the dislike some people have for pbp. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1st wave snow 2nd wave messy with snow to rain for coast with interior snow. I doubt it with a 1040 high up north. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: 1st wave snow 2nd wave messy with snow to rain for coast with interior snow. I doubt it with a 1040 high up north. Huge hit for SNE - devil always in the details but the idea is there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Just now, BoulderWX said: Huge hit for SNE - devil always in the details but the idea is there Exactly Fun week ahead 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: 1st wave snow 2nd wave messy with snow to rain. I doubt it with a 1040 high up north. 3rd wave not looking too bad, maybe some mixing issues for NYC. Subject to change of course. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Gefs again looks great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 49 minutes ago, Rjay said: Nowadays everyone has access to the models but I understand bc I always liked it to. Don't really understand the dislike some people have for pbp. It was great. However, when someone would get excited while giving pbp for their area "CRUSHED", but someone else reading it was in the screwzone, they'd inevitably end up attacking the pbp person telling them they're clearly wrong etc. Inevitably there would be intense arguments over what qualifies NYC Metro and whether that person belongs in this forum. I believe that's why we started the LI thread, LI went through a period where they were getting crushed and Jersey was out to dry and there was tons of fighting about it with the Jersey folks questioning why there are even threads for those storms lol, good times! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 19 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Whoever bought low last week looking good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Interesting when you play the frames the EPO pinches off and heads toward the Scandinavian ridge which collides into the AO region. In any event Southeast ridge is muted from the block although the air will not be all that cold. That said average temps are plenty for February. Mjo should be heading through 8 at this juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted Thursday at 02:08 AM Share Posted Thursday at 02:08 AM 8 hours ago, weatherpruf said: Any thoughts on the crisis at NOAA and how this will affect forecasts? If there is data of interest to you, better download it while you can, especially anything climate change related. NOAA pages are dissappeaing right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted Thursday at 02:10 AM Share Posted Thursday at 02:10 AM 1 minute ago, dWave said: If there is data of interest to you, better download it while you can, especially anything climate change related. NOAA pages are dissappeaing right now. NOAA currently setting up shop in Gaza so electricity may be spotty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Thursday at 02:43 AM Share Posted Thursday at 02:43 AM 4 hours ago, Rjay said: Nowadays everyone has access to the models but I understand bc I always liked it to. Don't really understand the dislike some people have for pbp. what was wrong with how it was in the old days when we just had one big thread for doing model pbp for all the storms? It was awesome, like reading a big mystery novel. I guess people don't like to read books anymore. Separating everything into 3 or 4 threads just makes everything seem disjointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Thursday at 02:46 AM Share Posted Thursday at 02:46 AM 3 hours ago, Allsnow said: Here is the funny irony, like two weeks ago in the enso thread Snowman said that this season reminded him of 2010-11 a lot, but he said that in reference to how winter ended as soon as February began. So he may be right about it being like 2010-11 but for the wrong reason. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Thursday at 02:47 AM Share Posted Thursday at 02:47 AM 3 hours ago, romba said: It was great. However, when someone would get excited while giving pbp for their area "CRUSHED", but someone else reading it was in the screwzone, they'd inevitably end up attacking the pbp person telling them they're clearly wrong etc. Inevitably there would be intense arguments over what qualifies NYC Metro and whether that person belongs in this forum. I believe that's why we started the LI thread, LI went through a period where they were getting crushed and Jersey was out to dry and there was tons of fighting about it with the Jersey folks questioning why there are even threads for those storms lol, good times! The entertainment was well worth it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Thursday at 02:50 AM Share Posted Thursday at 02:50 AM 4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Colder air has returned to the region just in time for the arrival of another storm. A period of snow, sleet, and freezing rain is likely tonight into tomorrow. New York City and nearby suburbs will likely see 0.5"-1.5" of snow and sleet before a brief transition to freezing rain and then rain. 1"-3" is likely in the distant northern and western suburbs before the precipitation changes over to freezing rain and rain. Northwest New Jersey into adjacent southeast New York could experience an extended period of freezing rain. Another system could bring snow changing to rain on Sunday. No exceptional warmth or cold is likely through at least February 14th. There remains uncertainty about the second half of the month with regard to temperature anomalies. Precipitation will likely be near or somewhat above normal. The AO is now positive and is expected to remain predominantly positive through the first week of February before falling sharply. Since 1950, just 2 of 19 (11%) of storms with an AO of +2.000 or above during January 15-February 15 saw 6" or more of snow in New York City. In addition, the NAO is likely to remain at +1.000 or above through the first 10-14 days of February. Since 1950, just 1 of 18 (6%) of storms with an NAO of +0.900 or above saw 6" or more snow in New York City. That storm occurred with an AO of -1.769. As a result, prospects for a 6" or above snowstorm in the New York City area will likely be limited through at least the first 10 days of February. The low probability of a 6" or above snowstorm does not mean that there cannot be snowfall or that there won't be snowfall. Smaller events are possible, as occurred on February 2. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around January 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.13°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.63°C. La Niña conditions are underway and will likely persist into the start of spring. The SOI was +24.50 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.439 today. Since 1950, just 1 of 18 (6%) of storms with an NAO of +0.900 or above saw 6" or more snow in New York City. That storm occurred with an AO of -1.769. Don, which storm was this? Was it in February 1994? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Thursday at 03:27 AM Share Posted Thursday at 03:27 AM 40 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Here is the funny irony, like two weeks ago in the enso thread Snowman said that this season reminded him of 2010-11 a lot, but he said that in reference to how winter ended as soon as February began. So he may be right about it being like 2010-11 but for the wrong reason. Couldn't find the post in the ENSO thread (maybe he deleted it because Ray did give a confused response to him comparing it to 2010-11) but I found the post in the January 2025 thread where he said that we were about to get a February 2011 style turnaround right here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted Thursday at 04:28 AM Share Posted Thursday at 04:28 AM GFS is South with the Tuesday -wed wave. Then follow up storm is rain. CMC is borderline warning event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Thursday at 04:30 AM Share Posted Thursday at 04:30 AM 1 minute ago, Franklin0529 said: GFS is South with the Tuesday -wed wave. Then follow up storm is rain. CMC is borderline warning event Both models are dicey for the coast. Luckily we have a week to go and 2 events before that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted Thursday at 04:35 AM Share Posted Thursday at 04:35 AM 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Both models are dicey for the coast. Luckily we have a week to go and 2 events before that. Tonight isn't really an event. Saturday night is trending better for sure. But seems the big dog potential is off the table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Thursday at 04:37 AM Share Posted Thursday at 04:37 AM 2 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: Tonight isn't really an event. Saturday night is trending better for sure. But seems the big dog potential is off the table Gefs is south for this weekend. Might turn into a decent snow event. Next week will change . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Thursday at 04:38 AM Share Posted Thursday at 04:38 AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted Thursday at 04:40 AM Share Posted Thursday at 04:40 AM The 0z CMC shows how we could escape without a significant snow event next week. That follows the noteworthy 10-day CMC ensemble snow mean from 12z of 15"-18" region wide. Even the GFS is probably sub-warning (snowfall) in any single event next week. These things are always incredibly tenuous. Should be fun tracking ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted Thursday at 04:40 AM Share Posted Thursday at 04:40 AM 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Gefs is south for this weekend. Might turn into a decent snow event. Next week will change . Yea I'm liking the weekend trends for sure. I'm big dog hunting. 6" is meh. I want 12+.. I know those hardly happen. But that's what I want Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Thursday at 04:41 AM Share Posted Thursday at 04:41 AM Just now, Franklin0529 said: Yea I'm liking the weekend trends for sure. I'm big dog hunting. 6" is meh. I want 12+.. I know those hardly happen. But that's what I want We all want that man. Hopefully next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted Thursday at 04:53 AM Share Posted Thursday at 04:53 AM 11 minutes ago, eduggs said: The 0z CMC shows how we could escape without a significant snow event next week. That follows the noteworthy 10-day CMC ensemble snow mean from 12z of 15"-18" region wide. Even the GFS is probably sub-warning (snowfall) in any single event next week. These things are always incredibly tenuous. Should be fun tracking ahead. Yep, definitely still in the "hope for the best" stage. The ensembles are encouraging that at least we have threats but as usual it could all fall apart. We should get some snow tomorrow and more on Sat PM but beyond that is fragile depending on the development of one or several waves. North of us is the best place to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted Thursday at 05:04 AM Share Posted Thursday at 05:04 AM Anyone got gefs for next week,? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Thursday at 05:04 AM Share Posted Thursday at 05:04 AM 23 minutes ago, eduggs said: The 0z CMC shows how we could escape without a significant snow event next week. That follows the noteworthy 10-day CMC ensemble snow mean from 12z of 15"-18" region wide. Even the GFS is probably sub-warning (snowfall) in any single event next week. These things are always incredibly tenuous. Should be fun tracking ahead. I think a lot of people would be happy if we get 3-4 2-4 inch events, every little bit adds up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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