weatherpruf Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Any thoughts on the crisis at NOAA and how this will affect forecasts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Is the euro stuck for anyone else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 3 minutes ago, Monmouth_County_Jacpot said: Is the euro stuck for anyone else? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 5 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Any thoughts on the crisis at NOAA and how this will affect forecasts? There’s discussion in the banter thread. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 absolutely locked in on the GEPS and GEFS. rotting block in place over the Davis Strait and elongated TPV in SE Canada 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 absolutely locked in on the GEPS and GEFS. rotting block in place over the Davis Strait and elongated TPV in SE Canada 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Euro has multiple waves next week. They looked good on 500mb. Surface didn't load yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1st wave 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Too early now for next week. Trend today was for multiple waves instead of one storm… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Euro looks like 8-12" for Tuesday. It's not the 20" storm it showed last night, but it's certainly nothing to sneeze at and would take in a heartbeat 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 10 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: Euro looks like 8-12" for Tuesday. It's not the 20" storm it showed last night, but it's certainly nothing to sneeze at and would take in a heartbeat And then more waves after that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 52 minutes ago, Nibor said: There’s discussion in the banter thread. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 30 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Too early now for next week. Trend today was for multiple waves instead of one storm… EPS still likes the Tuesday-Wednesday wave with a 5-6 mean 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 I thought all 3 globals were a little less ideal aloft at 12z for next week. There's still big thread and a lot that can go wrong. But at the same time guidance has been trending snowier for the two nearer term threats! Probably best to enjoy what we can this week and try to consider future threats a bonus. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 The mean for nyc total by day 8 is 13 inches 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: The mean for nyc total by day 8 is 13 inches That’s insane for a mean 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Just now, Monmouth_County_Jacpot said: That’s insane for a mean Yeah. The Saturday night event really has some big hitters in the idv 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 6 minutes ago, Allsnow said: The mean for nyc total by day 8 is 13 inches and this is before this pattern sets up. absurd 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: 70-80% chance of a foot or more on both for my area. Can’t ask for more. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 26 minutes ago, BoulderWX said: 70-80% chance of a foot or more on both for my area. Can’t ask for more. That was wild to see, 70% on the first one and 60% for the second here on the south shore. What's the difference between the two maps anyway, is the first one the Euro and the second one the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 the 10th percentile for NYC on the EPS is like 10”. anything but skewed high 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: the 10th percentile for NYC on the EPS is like 10”. anything but skewed high It keeps ticking north though. By Friday will be in NNE 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: the 10th percentile for NYC on the EPS is like 10”. anything but skewed high wow still 16-21 for our area. and this is the ensembles mean, not even an individual run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 minute ago, Franklin0529 said: It keeps ticking north though. By Friday will be in NNE this is more than one storm though, some will trend north, others will trend south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 45 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: wow still 16-21 for our area. and this is the ensembles mean, not even an individual run. How much of what’s on the map is ice vs snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Plan is to issue a new thread around 4-5PM tomorrow for probably 2 wintry events 2/11-15, one of which may be major snow storm, the other might be a south grazer. Not looking at anything beyond the 15th. Did buy 5 gallons of 4cycle fuel for my Ariens today and probably need to use the blower at Noon tomorrow for 2-3" here in Wantage NJ, topped. by a little sleet-freezing rain. Am offline 730P-3A. Thanks for your patience on the multi threads. 5 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 hour ago, wdrag said: Plan is to issue a new thread around 4-5PM tomorrow for probably 2 wintry events 2/11-15, one of which may be major snow storm, the other might be a south grazer. Not looking at anything beyond the 15th. Did buy 5 gallons of 4cycle fuel for my Ariens today and probably need to use the blower at Noon tomorrow for 2-3" here in Wantage NJ, topped. by a little sleet-freezing rain. Am offline 730P-3A. Thanks for your patience on the multi threads. Thanks again Walt for your time to post and sharing your thoughts and expertise. I also got fuel for the Ariens and did a once over on the belts and sheer pins. Fresh oil and ready to go for a good workout for it in the week or so to come. One thing is certain, this will definitely help increase the levels in the reservoirs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1st wave on the gfs is a hit for next week. Now here comes another one. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Colder air has returned to the region just in time for the arrival of another storm. A period of snow, sleet, and freezing rain is likely tonight into tomorrow. New York City and nearby suburbs will likely see 0.5"-1.5" of snow and sleet before a brief transition to freezing rain and then rain. 1"-3" is likely in the distant northern and western suburbs before the precipitation changes over to freezing rain and rain. Northwest New Jersey into adjacent southeast New York could experience an extended period of freezing rain. Another system could bring snow changing to rain on Sunday. No exceptional warmth or cold is likely through at least February 14th. There remains uncertainty about the second half of the month with regard to temperature anomalies. Precipitation will likely be near or somewhat above normal. The AO is now positive and is expected to remain predominantly positive through the first week of February before falling sharply. Since 1950, just 2 of 19 (11%) of storms with an AO of +2.000 or above during January 15-February 15 saw 6" or more of snow in New York City. In addition, the NAO is likely to remain at +1.000 or above through the first 10-14 days of February. Since 1950, just 1 of 18 (6%) of storms with an NAO of +0.900 or above saw 6" or more snow in New York City. That storm occurred with an AO of -1.769. As a result, prospects for a 6" or above snowstorm in the New York City area will likely be limited through at least the first 10 days of February. The low probability of a 6" or above snowstorm does not mean that there cannot be snowfall or that there won't be snowfall. Smaller events are possible, as occurred on February 2. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around January 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.13°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.63°C. La Niña conditions are underway and will likely persist into the start of spring. The SOI was +24.50 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.439 today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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