February 2025

[JustinRP37]

After a dry end to summer, dry fall, and now below average winter, the best way we bust the drought is for a few big snow storms and maintain cold. Then a slow melt in March. I am hoping this is the case. While it is a much more expensive heating winter than the past few, I am happy I pre-bought all my oil when it was cheaper. While it has been a relatively quiet winter thus far, it has been a cozy one with lots of cold around. Always love taking a deep breath of very cold air in the morning!

[eduggs]

4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

All riding on that one storm next week. Hopefully the guidance is correct 

The 10 day total includes ~0.5" for Wed night, 1-2" for Sat, and 5-6" spread out over 3 days reflecting multiple potential waves and timing differences between ensemble members.

[MJO812]

[snowman19]

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I wonder what the bias-corrected EPS is showing. @purduewx80 any idea? I don’t have the link to that 

[Stormlover74]

Gfs light snow Tuesday morning now

[eduggs]

There's a pathway to a long duration wintry event next week. It's a fun look at this moment. But since it's still a week away I'm assuming reality will be something a little more common.

[eduggs]

We're still seeing significant run to run changes in the long-wave jet structure for next week. I don't think we are anywhere close to pinning down even a basic overlay of next week's weather.

[SnoSki14]

I wouldn't be surprised if we ended up in a screw zone with systems prior to Feb 10 being north of us and post 10th south of us. 

[eduggs]

The 06z GEFS showed non-trivial precipitation for 7+ days starting Tue next week. But we shouldn't expect precipitation every day. Timing differences and multiple waves are spread out across an entire week of ensemble averaging. It will be very interesting to see how this evolves in the models... will be eagerly looking for continuity.

[BxEngine]

10 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I wouldn't be surprised if we ended up in a screw zone with systems prior to Feb 10 being north of us and post 10th south of us. 

We heard you the first time man. Come back after the 10th lol

[MJO812]

Alot of vorts next week. 

[SnowGoose69]

I agree with Walt on that 12th-14th storm, there is definitely a risk of suppression though I think suppression is the wrong word.  As I said yesterday, its more "failed phasing" or disjointed setup than it really would be suppresison

[EastonSN+]

4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I agree with Walt on that 12th-14th storm, there is definitely a risk of suppression though I think suppression is the wrong word.  As I said yesterday, its more "failed phasing" or disjointed setup than it really would be suppresison

I believe this may be what forky was referring to when he was not a fan of the compressed flow.

[tristateweatherFB]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

I wonder what the bias-corrected EPS is showing. @purduewx80 any idea? I don’t have the link to that 

It’s been awful all year.  Will correct stronger 

[gravitylover]

40 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I agree with Walt on that 12th-14th storm, there is definitely a risk of suppression though I think suppression is the wrong word.  As I said yesterday, its more "failed phasing" or disjointed setup than it really would be suppresison

I need it to stay south of I80 (or Rt17) so my trip to Chicago is better on the 11th and home on the 13th. See what ya can do

[Allsnow]

Considering the battle between the AO and Se ridge I don’t hate this being south of us in the medium range 

[brooklynwx99]

ridiculous Arctic blocking on the GEFS

[MJO812]

Gefs still snowy

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, eduggs said:

There's a pathway to a long duration wintry event next week. It's a fun look at this moment. But since it's still a week away I'm assuming reality will be something a little more common.

It makes me wonder why multiday storms have become so rare.  Going back through history they used to be much more common (from the 1920s through the 1960s).

 

[eduggs]

[EastonSN+]

11 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Wow.

[Stormlover74]

Another day of gusts over 40 mph 

[Stormlover74]

Euro coming in nice for Tuesday Wednesday. Might be favoring the mid Atlantic but still a decent hit up here

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Euro coming in nice for Tuesday Wednesday. Might be favoring the mid Atlantic but still a decent hit up here

Yep looks great

[EastonSN+]

It seems as though there are two distinct periods for possible snow events, or time frames that are conducive to snow. 

The first is now through the large storm next week. Then we have a brief Southeast ridge, followed by a much colder time frame reference below. Hopefully we can cash on both 

 

[eduggs]

We don't know what's coming, particularly beyond day 10. Models could be far off with the longwave "pattern" and evolution they are advertising. The EC has one distinct snow threat out at the end of the mid-range. It also has a few minor snow threats before then. GFS and ensembles are similar but with timing differences. Depending on how shortwaves eject from the southwest US and interact with the longwave jet structure, there could be more than one "wave" of precipitation next week.

I'm assuming next week will be our best shot of a big snowstorm this winter. I obviously don't know that for sure, but we can't count of anything past 10 days. Getting a good hit inside 7 days on multiple ensemble means is worth a lot more than mega blocking and fantasy storms 2+ weeks from now.

[Franklin0529]

EPS is ridiculous for next week. 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

After a dry end to summer, dry fall, and now below average winter, the best way we bust the drought is for a few big snow storms and maintain cold. Then a slow melt in March. I am hoping this is the case. While it is a much more expensive heating winter than the past few, I am happy I pre-bought all my oil when it was cheaper. While it has been a relatively quiet winter thus far, it has been a cozy one with lots of cold around. Always love taking a deep breath of very cold air in the morning!

it's seemed like a very long winter regardless of how much snow fell or not.  We do define our winters by temperatures and not the amount of snow that falls.

 

[LibertyBell]

50 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Another day of gusts over 40 mph 

I hate the wind

[LibertyBell]

43 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Euro coming in nice for Tuesday Wednesday. Might be favoring the mid Atlantic but still a decent hit up here

well according to many, we're part of the midatlantic.