February 2025

[cleetussnow]

Storm is 9 days out.  Meh.  

[EastonSN+]

All this is BEFORE the block really gets going.

[EastonSN+]

Just now, cleetussnow said:

Storm is 9 days out.  Meh.  

Got to start somewhere.

[wdrag]

1 hour ago, MANDA said:

Sure made for a quick melt of the overnight snow.  Nothing left here.  More like a mid to late March type melt than the 3rd. of February.

NAO was right... I underestimated rapid snow loss today. Snow (1" to start at 6AM)  still on concrete and shaded area. Where more than 1.5" not all was lost today.  Wantage NJ 740' MSL max Temp was 42.

[donsutherland1]

Following last night's light snowfall, the temperature soared well into the 40s across the New York City area. The Philadelphia area saw some lower 50s.

Tomorrow will be another mild day, but another brief cold shot is likely Wednesday before temperatures moderate yet again. Some snow, sleet, and freezing rain is also possible later Wednesday into Thursday.

There remains some uncertainty about the second half of the month. The ECMWF weeklies are holding with below normal temperatures after having moved to a warmer than normal outlook a few days ago. The AO is now forecast to go strongly negative. These recent developments increase prospects for a colder pattern. Precipitation will likely be near or somewhat above normal.

The AO is now positive and is expected to remain predominantly positive through the first week of February before falling sharply. Since 1950, just 2 of 19 (11%) of storms with an AO of +2.000 or above during January 15-February 15 saw 6" or more of snow in New York City. In addition, the NAO is likely to remain at +1.000 or above through the first 10-14 days of February. Since 1950, just 1 of 18 (6%) of storms with an NAO of +0.900 or above saw 6" or more snow in New York City. That storm occurred with an AO of -1.769.  As a result, prospects for a 6" or above snowstorm in the New York City area will likely be limited through at least the first 10 days of February. The low probability of a 6" or above snowstorm does not mean that there cannot be snowfall or that there won't be snowfall. Smaller events are possible.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around January 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.13°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.63°C. La Niña conditions are underway and will likely persist into the start of spring.

The SOI was +20.65 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.329 today.

 

[wdrag]

OK... just checked to see if this was posted. IF so, my apology for the repeat hope.  CPC hazards issued this afternoon.

EPS CMCE snow dropped slightly today's 12z cycle but that can waffle and was within the noise fluctuation.  We'll see how the next several days go.

No thread from me beyond the 9th, until we see how the 6th goes... possibly issue immediately after 18z/6 IFFFFF we're still in the game 12th onward. 

Can't add to anymore confusion.  You all are handling it perfect,  prior to the5th and after the 9th here. 

 

 

[wdrag]

5 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

Middlesex/Union County NJ border at 11:50 A.M temp is 42 and not a trace of snow on the ground completely melted -its not melting up northern NJ yet ?

Mostly gone for 1" or less, except shade and concrete.  Where 1.5" or more, more snow is left tihs evening under shaded areas. 

[Stormlover74]

Gfs continues the storm train with a huge hit on the 16th

[MJO812]

Wow

[Monmouth_County_Jacpot]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Wow

I was just looking at that. That is just insane and it’s been consistently showing it

[SnowGoose69]

The GFS still could be overdoing the presence of the SER so I am not sold post 2/13-2/14 that storm tracks are going to be that far north.

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The GFS still could be overdoing the presence of the SER so I am not sold post 2/13-2/14 that storm tracks are going to be that far north.

Suppression isn't going to be an issue this time around . We don't have intense blocking modeled. 

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Suppression isn't going to be an issue this time around . We don't have intense blocking modeled. 

I'm not worried too much about suppression as I am maybe storms not being able to amp up quite as much if the SER is flatter than that Op run shows 

[Allsnow]

Wow at that happy hour run 

[Allsnow]

9 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Wow at that happy hour run 

The entire run…crazy. Please be half correct 

[Stormlover74]

Hopefully put a dent in the drought

[hudsonvalley21]

6 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The entire run…crazy. Please be half correct 

Crazy that it has been bullish for the last few runs. Like you said, we’d take half of that.

 

[wdrag]

The 00z/3 EPS has above normal snowfall here every week in Feb except the projected very cold one 2/18-24.

I've never seen this... probably part of why CPC has us outlooked 2/11-15

I hope something doesn't botch this... rather robust above normal snow signal.

 

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, wdrag said:

The 00z/3 EPS has above normal snowfall here every week in Feb except the projected very cold one 2/18-24.

I've never seen this... probably part of why CPC has us outlooked 2/11-15

I hope something doesn't botch this... rather robust above normal snow signal.

 

Wow 

[Franklin0529]

13 minutes ago, wdrag said:

The 00z/3 EPS has above normal snowfall here every week in Feb except the projected very cold one 2/18-24.

I've never seen this... probably part of why CPC has us outlooked 2/11-15

I hope something doesn't botch this... rather robust above normal snow signal.

 

Impressive coming from you. Hope it holds 

[SnoSki14]

51 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The entire run…crazy. Please be half correct 

Watch us end up with 2" tops. GFS is on crack 

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

Watch us end up with 2" tops. GFS is on crack 

Cool 

[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Cool 

Just think we get mostly slop. Models trended stronger with SE ridge for the 11-13th too hence the snow/mix to rain the Euro shows. 

This is a SNE snow pattern to me and I'll stand by it

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Watch us end up with 2" tops. GFS is on crack 

You do realize it's not only the gfs right? 

[MJO812]

Gefs

[Allsnow]

4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Just think we get mostly slop. Models trended stronger with SE ridge for the 11-13th too hence the snow/mix to rain the Euro shows. 

This is a SNE snow pattern to me and I'll stand by it

Sounds good. Come back after the 13th to let us know how it worked out 

 

[MJO812]

Latest euro weeklies

[SnoSki14]

Just now, Allsnow said:

Sounds good. Come back after the 13th to let us know how it worked out 

 

Sure we'll see what happens between now and Feb 20.

My prediction is 2-4" total for NYC south

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Sounds good. Come back after the 13th to let us know how it worked out 

 

I'm definitely screenshotting this.

[Allsnow]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Sure we'll see what happens between now and Feb 20.

My prediction is 2-4" total for NYC south

Does that include the inch that fell last night?