February 2025

[anthonymm]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

hopefully warm enough to bring the storm track closer to us.  This might mean more snow in February than we got in January.  That would be a win.

 

You cant get snow with warmth haha. Maybe the interior at high elevation does well but this is pretty much a worst case scenario type look for the I95 megalopolis. Anyone that lives near the I95 not waving the white flag for February is in tremendous denial.

[LibertyBell]

Just now, anthonymm said:

You cant get snow with warmth haha. Maybe the interior at high elevation does well but this is pretty much a worst case scenario type look for the I95 megalopolis. Anyone that lives near the I95 not waving the white flag for February is in tremendous denial.

I'm looking at temps in the 50s-60s, a short cool down that lasts 2-3 days with  a snow event, and then back to the 50s-60s.  

[anthonymm]

17 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

Wait, you can bet on NYC snowfall? A few seasons years of putting the house on the under and I'll be able to retire.

Yup. You can safely bet under 5" and make a killing these days. People I guess haven't caught on to the fact that it doesn't snow in central park anymore.

[anthonymm]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

I'm looking at temps in the 50s-60s, a short cool down that lasts 2-3 days with  a snow event, and then back to the 50s-60s.  

The precip will come on the 50s-60s days and it'll be dry on the days cold enough to snow. How have we not learned this yet?

[the_other_guy]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

2nd half of the month will be a wildcard 

 

 

Dont bet on this bullshit

 

Basically and up and down pattern with a slight AN tilt.

 

Bluewave runs with it…you should stroll with it

[the_other_guy]

5 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

Yup. You can safely bet under 5" and make a killing these days. People I guess haven't caught on to the fact that it doesn't snow in central park anymore.

The urban heat Island has been particularly affected by climate change. Somebody smarter than me should delve into this and do a research paper.

 

The good news is if you live in the metro area if you get 10 miles out of the city proper, you haven’t been nearly as affected, especially at night…and that goes for all four seasons, not just winter.

 

I believe it has to do with the increased humidity magnifying the effects of the urban heat island. The increased humidity is affecting the whole area, but it really magnifies the urban core.

 

I grew up in Queens and I’m not that old. I remember plenty of nights in the summer in the 90s with windows open. that would be unthinkable today.

 

I also grew up in Wading River on the beach…and we did not have air-conditioning. Nobody on the block had air-conditioning. That would be absolutely unthinkable today.

 

The increase in humidity, especially the effects on nighttime low temps, has been astounding from 2000 onward.

 

[anthonymm]

6 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

The urban heat Island has been particularly affected by climate change. Somebody smarter than me should delve into this and do a research paper.

 

The good news is if you live in the metro area if you get 10 miles out of the city proper, you haven’t been nearly as affected, especially at night…and that goes for all four seasons, not just winter.

 

I believe it has to do with the increased humidity magnifying the effects of the urban heat island. The increased humidity is affecting the whole area, but it really magnifies the urban core.

 

I grew up in Queens and I’m not that old. I remember plenty of nights in the summer in the 90s with windows open. that would be unthinkable today.

 

I also grew up in Wading River on the beach…and we did not have air-conditioning. Nobody on the block had air-conditioning. That would be absolutely unthinkable today.

 

The increase in humidity, especially the effects on nighttime low temps, has been astounding from 2000 onward.

 

Yes absolutely but it doesn't really explain the recent lack of snow. As recently as 2021 the pattern wasnt so hostile to snow. 

[LibertyBell]

27 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

The precip will come on the 50s-60s days and it'll be dry on the days cold enough to snow. How have we not learned this yet?

You should research February 2018, it was a lot warmer than this month is going to be and we still had a 5 inch snowstorm.

[LibertyBell]

20 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

The urban heat Island has been particularly affected by climate change. Somebody smarter than me should delve into this and do a research paper.

 

The good news is if you live in the metro area if you get 10 miles out of the city proper, you haven’t been nearly as affected, especially at night…and that goes for all four seasons, not just winter.

 

I believe it has to do with the increased humidity magnifying the effects of the urban heat island. The increased humidity is affecting the whole area, but it really magnifies the urban core.

 

I grew up in Queens and I’m not that old. I remember plenty of nights in the summer in the 90s with windows open. that would be unthinkable today.

 

I also grew up in Wading River on the beach…and we did not have air-conditioning. Nobody on the block had air-conditioning. That would be absolutely unthinkable today.

 

The increase in humidity, especially the effects on nighttime low temps, has been astounding from 2000 onward.

 

This is why we need to get rid of concrete and greenify the city.

I hate densely populated areas anyway, all it results in is faster spread of disease and more dirtiness.

 

[steve392]

38 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

You cant get snow with warmth haha. Maybe the interior at high elevation does well but this is pretty much a worst case scenario type look for the I95 megalopolis. Anyone that lives near the I95 not waving the white flag for February is in tremendous denial.

Where do you make these bets?  asking for a friend...

[CentralNJSnowman]

3 minutes ago, steve392 said:

Where do you make these bets?  asking for a friend...

Kalshi.com

[MJO812]

39 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Dont bet on this bullshit

 

Basically and up and down pattern with a slight AN tilt.

 

Bluewave runs with it…you should stroll with it

No one knows what's going to happen after mid month. That's 2 weeks out.

[donsutherland1]

3 hours ago, anthonymm said:

After the threat of suppression was made obvious after the beginning of the month it quickly corrected. Also the recency bias probably isnt why they went with around 8" in the beginning, its probably just because 8" is around the average Jan snowfall. If anything recency bias would lead you to think (correctly) that this Jan would be very below average in terms of snow. I'm sticking with my guns, its a multiyear low snow cycle. It isnt meant to snow much for us in the 2020s.

The main point I was making is that the betting figure is speculation. It's interesting to see what others are thinking, but it doesn't offer much insight.

[anthonymm]

26 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

You should research February 2018, it was a lot warmer than this month is going to be and we still had a 5 inch snowstorm.

2010s was an entirely different era. It found every excuse to drop snow as soon as the temp fell below 32. Nowadays its the exact opposite.

[anthonymm]

20 minutes ago, steve392 said:

Where do you make these bets?  asking for a friend...

https://kalshi.com/markets/kxsnownym/total-snow-in-nyc#kxsnownym-25feb. Bet under 5" its easy money. 

[steve392]

1 minute ago, anthonymm said:

2010s was an entirely different era. It found every excuse to drop snow as soon as the temp fell below 32. Nowadays its the exact opposite.

Can't remember if it was 2009/10 or 10/11 that it was just snow squalls, snow showers, le snow like every single afternoon or night in nnj.  Was a cold ass winter too.

[steve392]

1 minute ago, anthonymm said:

https://kalshi.com/markets/kxsnownym/total-snow-in-nyc#kxsnownym-25feb. Bet under 5" its easy money. 

i'll do it and we'll have a major polar vortex with historic blizzard to set records. 

[NEG NAO]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

I'm looking at temps in the 50s-60s, a short cool down that lasts 2-3 days with  a snow event, and then back to the 50s-60s.  

why don't you post some model guidance to back up your predictions ?

 

[MJO812]

31 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

why don't you post some model guidance to back up your predictions ?

 

They don't. Winter is far from over. 

[anthonymm]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

They don't. Winter is far from over. 

I can't believe people are unironically saying this with a screaming southeast ridge, trough over the west look in February. That's basically the nail in the coffin type 500 mb pattern for I95 snow prospects.

[donsutherland1]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I've been using the 1989-90 analog for a month now lol.

But believe it or not in this era of climate change, there is no way FM will be as warm as JFM were in 1990.

I would like to know what caused that early April snowfall event in 1990 after it was in the mid 80s for 3 straight days in middle March.  Was that the result of an SSW in 1990?

 

Allan is using 1988-89. He's referring to February 1989. The two storms were:

February 17-19, 1989: Raleigh: 6.2"; Norfolk: 15.4"; New York City: None

February 23-24, 1989: Raleigh: 4.9"; Norfolk: 9.0"; New York City: None

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

I can't believe people are unironically saying this with a screaming southeast ridge, trough over the west look in February. That's basically the nail in the coffin type 500 mb pattern for I95 snow prospects.

Who are you ? 

[LibertyBell]

39 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

why don't you post some model guidance to back up your predictions ?

 

there is no need, we're talking about what's happened in past winters, in the heart of winter, you can have 60 one day, snow the next day and then back to 60 the day after.  You don't need it to be a cold month to snow.

[LibertyBell]

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

They don't. Winter is far from over. 

it makes no sense to say *no chance of snow* in the heart of winter, it's stupid,  you can get snow in ANY pattern.  Maybe not heavy snow, but accumulating snow can happen in ANY pattern in the middle of winter.

 

[the_other_guy]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

there is no need, we're talking about what's happened in past winters, in the heart of winter, you can have 60 one day, snow the next day and then back to 60 the day after.  You don't need it to be a cold month to snow.

Denver.

 

But to get that here you need thread the needle large storms that pull in cold air.

 

Havent seen those storms in a while

[anthonymm]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

there is no need, we're talking about what's happened in past winters, in the heart of winter, you can have 60 one day, snow the next day and then back to 60 the day after.  You don't need it to be a cold month to snow.

Back then yes. Now everything needs to be absolutely perfect to get even an inch.

[LibertyBell]

57 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

2010s was an entirely different era. It found every excuse to drop snow as soon as the temp fell below 32. Nowadays its the exact opposite.

we're talking about 2010s not 1910s, the climate doesn't change that quickly.

[LibertyBell]

Just now, the_other_guy said:

Denver.

 

But to get that here you need thread the needle large storms that pull in cold air.

 

Havent seen those storms in a while

Yes, not in a few years.  Those storms are some kind of magic.

[anthonymm]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

we're talking about 2010s not 1910s, the climate doesn't change that quickly.

Well surely it can. If the climate cant change so suddenly look at this chart and explain what happened after the winter of 2021-2022 : https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf

[LibertyBell]

Just now, anthonymm said:

Back then yes. Now everything needs to be absolutely perfect to get even an inch.

Yes, it's actually extremely rare to get shut out in February.  You could have 2 inches of snow at night and 50s during the day pretty easily.  Get that twice in the month and you have your 4 inches.