February 2025

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

that is also worth noting when looking at ensembles... a weak SE ridge on the mean with a -EPO doesn't really mean a lack of snow. sure, there are likely some periods of time and some members that are warmer, but it's not the same as a SE ridge with a +EPO. nuance is important. we are likely going to be near a gradient that will present opportunities after the 5th or so. it's going to be changeable and we'll likely have some warm days in there, but that doesn't preclude snow or some mixed systems

as we have seen, you can have a 4-6 inch snowstorm both before and after a 60 degree day (sometimes both).

 

[Brian5671]

20 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

as we have seen, you can have a 4-6 inch snowstorm both before and after a 60 degree day (sometimes both).

 

Let's hope it develops-a nice stormy gradient would be a nice change of pace from the boredom of late.

[eduggs]

40 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

to prove my point further, the GEPS snow mean is pretty robust (as are the other ensembles), and the 500mb pattern looks like this. there's obviously members here that have us on the colder side of the boundary with the -EPO bringing colder HP to the north

You are indirectly supporting a point that I have been trying to make for years that long-range averaged anomaly charts are poor tool for identifying regional snow threats and likelihoods. They work OK for 10-14 day regional temperature forecasting.

In northern Japan and Hokkaido, you can often see snowy periods coming 2 weeks in advance. But for us, snow is primarily correlated to 500mb features that are not identifiable at a time and space scale resolvable at 2 week lead times. This leads to a hype and disappointment cycle based on pretty looking anomaly charts.

[eduggs]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Let's hope it develops-a nice stormy gradient would be a nice change of pace from the boredom of late.

We actually have a hybrid gradient-overrunning pattern forecasted to set up over the next week or so. Unfortunately, modeling has shifted the gradient northward in time over the past several days leading to repeated bouts of wintry precipitation heading into northern NY and NE. That will likely continue to be the risk moving forward.

[North and West]

Wait, I thought winter cancel? 

but if you cancel winter, where could you get into verbal spats with strangers?


.

[North and West]

Imagine if I posted a 222 hour operational model run on here showing a torch lol

I bet you’re actually delightful to work with in person. Warm and loving the family, holding doors open, encouraging friends.


.

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, eduggs said:

We actually have a hybrid gradient-overrunning pattern forecasted to set up over the next week or so. Unfortunately, modeling has shifted the gradient northward in time over the past several days leading to repeated bouts of wintry precipitation heading into northern NY and NE. That will likely continue to be the risk moving forward.

Yeah I have often said gradient patterns favor central and northern New England

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, eduggs said:

You are indirectly supporting a point that I have been trying to make for years that long-range averaged anomaly charts are poor tool for identifying regional snow threats and likelihoods. They work OK for 10-14 day regional temperature forecasting.

In northern Japan and Hokkaido, you can often see snowy periods coming 2 weeks in advance. But for us, snow is primarily correlated to 500mb features that are not identifiable at a time and space scale resolvable at 2 week lead times. This leads to a hype and disappointment cycle based on pretty looking anomaly charts.

they are even poor in analyzing climate trends because we keep shifting to newer 30 year periods.... and who decided on 30 years anyway, it seems quite subjective.

 

[wishcast_hater]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

they are even poor in analyzing climate trends because we keep shifting to newer 30 year periods.... and who decided on 30 years anyway, it seems quite subjective.

 

It's data manipulation and skews the overall HISTORICAL average. 

[anthonymm]

I'm putting my foot down with snowboss. winter is cancelled if you're south of new england. the park wont see 3 more inches of snow mark my words bookmark this post. Sorry weenies.

[Allsnow]

I think you will see that cold shot from 7th to 10th trend stronger as we get closer 

[anthonymm]

13 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I think you will see that cold shot from 7th to 10th trend stronger as we get closer 

Nope. Things will trend to cutters. The upcoming pattern absolutely screams cutter.

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, anthonymm said:

Nope. Things will trend to cutters. The upcoming pattern absolutely screams cutter.

This will be in between the cutters 

[WestBabylonWeather]

56 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

I'm putting my foot down with snowboss. winter is cancelled if you're south of new england. the park wont see 3 more inches of snow mark my words bookmark this post. Sorry weenies.

Just curious. How are you so sure with two full months where it can snow left 

[SHELEG]

58 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

I'm putting my foot down with snowboss. winter is cancelled if you're south of new england. the park wont see 3 more inches of snow mark my words bookmark this post. Sorry weenies.

Mark my words NYC will see more than 3 Inches this winter bookmark this post.

[BoulderWX]

1 hour ago, anthonymm said:

I'm putting my foot down with snowboss. winter is cancelled if you're south of new england. the park wont see 3 more inches of snow mark my words bookmark this post. Sorry weenies.

Putting your foot down!? That’s hilarious. Are you a child? Maybe the park will see 3 inches, maybe not, but what a childish statement. 

[cleetussnow]

1 hour ago, anthonymm said:

I'm putting my foot down with snowboss. winter is cancelled if you're south of new england. the park wont see 3 more inches of snow mark my words bookmark this post. Sorry weenies.

Waaa. January 96 isn’t walking thru that door.  Waaaa

[donsutherland1]

12 hours ago, snowman19 said:

It’s weakening because of the late bloomer La Niña strengthening and peaking in February. As soon as it hits the colder Niña waters and the very strong trades the convection is going to get sheared apart and run out of steam. I’m not so sure we’re going to see the MJO 8 effects you think it may. Maybe @donsutherland1 and @bluewave can chime in their thoughts here 

I suspect that the still strengthening La Niña is driving a divergence in the long-range guidance. The CFSv2 is very warm for Weeks 3 and 4. The ECMWF weeklies have gone warm for that timeframe, as well, though not as warm as the CFSv2 is. All said, I think February will wind up warmer than normal in much of the East. However, I don't think it will be so warm that it will deprive the region of an overall colder than normal winter.

[jm1220]

Even in the last two godawful winters I cleared 10” IMBY, I’m pretty confident there’ll be another event or two to get us over that mark and maybe if lucky 15-20”, but I see nothing on the horizon to change things up in a meaningful way, ie something that would bring a SECS/MECS. Central Park has 5.8” I think, it’s probably a coin flip whether they make it to 10”. So the overwhelming likelihood is another well below average snow winter. 

[eduggs]

LR guidance looking like dog shit again. Snow threat tracking sure has been painful these past few winters.

[NEG NAO]

1 hour ago, eduggs said:

LR guidance looking like dog shit again. Snow threat tracking sure has been painful these past few winters.

The 0Z Euro is more active and precip interacts with the cold air here

[eduggs]

9 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

The 0Z Euro is more active and precip interacts with the cold air here

 

Better than GFS. But still beyond day 10. H5 looks like a NNE special. But we can always get lucky I guess, especially in mid Feb.

[the_other_guy]

17 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

Yeah I have often said gradient patterns favor central and northern New England

Damn straight.

 

enjoy 55 and rain followed by cold for all those rooting for this pattern

 

much better off with the cold pattern and little events here and there

 

Always better to be fighting suppression then fighting warm air in this new warmer climate

[Allsnow]

11 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

I suspect that the still strengthening La Niña is driving a divergence in the long-range guidance. The CFSv2 is very warm for Weeks 3 and 4. The ECMWF weeklies have gone warm for that timeframe, as well, though not as warm as the CFSv2 is. All said, I think February will wind up warmer than normal in much of the East. However, I don't think it will be so warm that it will deprive the region of an overall colder than normal winter.

 

10 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Even in the last two godawful winters I cleared 10” IMBY, I’m pretty confident there’ll be another event or two to get us over that mark and maybe if lucky 15-20”, but I see nothing on the horizon to change things up in a meaningful way, ie something that would bring a SECS/MECS. Central Park has 5.8” I think, it’s probably a coin flip whether they make it to 10”. So the overwhelming likelihood is another well below average snow winter. 

 

[Allsnow]

11 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

I suspect that the still strengthening La Niña is driving a divergence in the long-range guidance. The CFSv2 is very warm for Weeks 3 and 4. The ECMWF weeklies have gone warm for that timeframe, as well, though not as warm as the CFSv2 is. All said, I think February will wind up warmer than normal in much of the East. However, I don't think it will be so warm that it will deprive the region of an overall colder than normal winter.

The PV split is a wildcard as well for this month 

[SnoSki14]

Maybe things can turn around late winter. I know Nina Marches can be decent. 

And a -PNA is less unfavorable in late winter. 

However I'm not getting my hopes up. This winter has mainly been a different kind of disaster....cold & dry vs the usual warm/wet. And of course when more precip does arrive it's rain. 

[Dark Star]

17 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

they are even poor in analyzing climate trends because we keep shifting to newer 30 year periods.... and who decided on 30 years anyway, it seems quite subjective.

 

I'm "assuming" that someone did a statistical study.  I understand the concept, but I disagree.  I believe we should use all years on record as the average.  Otherwise, it is still subjective, in my stubborn opinion.  

[Dark Star]

7 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

The 0Z Euro is more active and precip interacts with the cold air here

Mebee so, but I am still optimistic as long as there is cold air in southeastern Canada.  A slight tick to the south, and it could change things quickly...

[donsutherland1]

39 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

 

 

Model skill, including those I cited, is low that far out. As Eric Webb noted, there is no guarantee about the development of an NAO-. Previously, the ECMWF weeklies had near normal temperatures for Weeks 3 and 4. That changed with yesterday's run.

Having said that, I believe the CFSv2 is overdone with the warmth (3°C-4°C/5.4°F-7.2°F above normal in the New York City area). My assumption is based on the continuation of an EPO- pattern that would allow some intrusions of colder air and greater reliance on the ECMWF weeklies.

All said don't think this will be a "torch" February (monthly mean temperature of 40° or above), but see it coming out clearly on the warm side of normal. Indeed, the overperformance of the warmth this few days in January (including the outbreak of record warmth in the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes) shows how things can break much warmer when conditions allow. 

[Allsnow]

@donsutherland1 didn’t the cfs and euro weeklies all have a torch to start this winter?