the_other_guy Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 On 1/29/2025 at 12:59 PM, snowman19 said: This is going to be one of the latest peaking La Nina’s on record. They are usually falling apart in February, not strengthening and peaking. Even for a late bloomer La Niña, this is ridiculous. IMO, this argues for a canonical La Niña pattern continuing for longer than some people are thinking Expand That is good if you like snow during a La Nina 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 On 1/29/2025 at 12:46 PM, EastonSN+ said: The wave is weakening as it heads toward phase 8, however still has decent amplitude. With the lag still looking at the last week of February. Expand It’s showing the MJO wave weaking as it heads towards phase 8 because of the relatively colder waters there and the enhanced, strong trade winds from the late peaking La Niña….shearing the convection apart…..there’s a possibility that it never makes it into phase 8 and gets sheared apart and encounters the colder waters 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 On 1/29/2025 at 12:42 PM, EastonSN+ said: To provide additional granularity. So years where it snowed in Atlanta, the results ended up as provided by Don. Expand But Atlanta didn't get that much snow they were fringed too. Maybe we could instead look at a city that got more than 3 inches of snow, for example Savannah. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 On 1/29/2025 at 12:59 PM, snowman19 said: This is going to be one of the latest peaking La Nina’s on record. They are usually falling apart in February, not strengthening and peaking. Even for a late bloomer La Niña, this is ridiculous. IMO, this argues for a canonical La Niña pattern continuing for longer than some people are thinking Expand a really bad severe season then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 On 1/29/2025 at 11:22 AM, donsutherland1 said: Winter 1895-96. Expand We had a historically snowy March in 1896, over 30 inches of snow (still the record for NYC.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 On 1/29/2025 at 6:08 AM, NEG NAO said: Next week is now going to feature our next storm threat/thread as several models including the 0Z Euro are showing an east coast storm sometime mid - late next week Expand that offshore high looks like it's in a really bad spot for snow for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 On 1/29/2025 at 12:41 PM, EastonSN+ said: LOL LOL. Allow me to clarify my statement. If it's a red tagger, Blue Wave or Don that are currently on this board it's a trustworthy source as they would provide evidence and not state such a claim. If it's a Twitter person that is not a current poster, I would be leery. Expand he was also the head mod of our subforum lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 On 1/29/2025 at 5:15 AM, Stormlover74 said: March 15 1999 Expand Thanks I forgot how great this storm was in an otherwise lackluster winter. Beware the Ides of March! 6-9 inches of snow here! I think we had an event in January 1999 too, but we either got fringed or changed over in that storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 On 1/29/2025 at 1:06 PM, snowman19 said: It’s showing the MJO wave weaking as it heads towards phase 8 because of the relatively colder waters there and the enhanced, strong trade winds from the late peaking La Niña….shearing the convection apart…..there’s a possibility that it never makes it into phase 8 and gets sheared apart and encounters the colder waters Expand Agreed, however the wave started at a decent amplitude therefore should have some effects in phase 8, albeit weakened. Phase one, which includes the Western Indian Ocean, should not be affected as it wasn't in December. All the focus has been on the waters around Indonesia in Northern Australia however not enough attention has been paid to the Western Indian Ocean which is also increasing in temperature fast. Phases one and two are colder phases. There have been a number of late seasons snowfalls in La Nina's over the years, excluding epic snowy winters like 95/96. I wonder if anybody has done a deep dive into the trigger mechanisms for the late season snowfalls in those La Nina's, which could perhaps provide insight into the potential moving forward. Don's statistics show, from a snowfall perspective at a point in time, which of course do include both La niñas and El ninos. However with the changing weather over the years what may have been detrimental to late season snowfalls in the past may actually work in our favor now or in the future (i.e. warmer western Indian Ocean temps). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 On 1/29/2025 at 1:18 PM, LibertyBell said: he was also the head mod of our subforum lol Expand He isn't on any forums anymore. Just twitter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 On 1/29/2025 at 1:06 PM, snowman19 said: It’s showing the MJO wave weaking as it heads towards phase 8 because of the relatively colder waters there and the enhanced, strong trade winds from the late peaking La Niña….shearing the convection apart…..there’s a possibility that it never makes it into phase 8 and gets sheared apart and encounters the colder waters Expand Looks like your milder pattern is finally coming . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 On 1/29/2025 at 1:22 PM, EastonSN+ said: Agreed, however the wave started at a decent amplitude therefore should have some effects in phase 8, albeit weakened. Phase one, which includes the Western Indian Ocean, should not be affected as it wasn't in December. All the focus has been on the waters around Indonesia in Northern Australia however not enough attention has been paid to the Western Indian Ocean which is also increasing in temperature fast. Phases one and two are colder phases. There have been a number of late seasons snowfalls in La Nina's over the years, excluding epic snowy winters like 95/96. I wonder if anybody has done a deep dive into the trigger mechanisms for the late season snowfalls in those La Nina's, which could perhaps provide insight into the potential moving forward. Don's statistics show, from a snowfall perspective at a point in time, which of course do include both La niñas and El ninos. However with the changing weather over the years what may have been detrimental to late season snowfalls in the past may actually work in our favor now or in the future (i.e. warmer western Indian Ocean temps). Expand well we can add 1998-99 to the list now too (note another no KU snowfall la nina that came after an el nino). So now we have 3. 1983-84 1998-99 2008-09 1991-92 wasn't a la nina was it? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 On 1/29/2025 at 1:26 PM, LibertyBell said: well we can add 1998-99 to the list now too (note another no KU snowfall la nina that came after an el nino). So now we have 3. 1983-84 1998-99 2008-09 1991-92 wasn't a la nina was it? Expand No it was an El nino. On a side note I often wonder why so much attention is paid to the warmer Waters around Indonesia in Northern Australia and not the Western Indian Ocean. The Western Indian Ocean supports phases one and two which are cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonymm Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 I think we're basically done in terms of snowfall this winter. I'd bet $100 central park finishes with <10" yet again this winter. Idc what anyone says about the 80s this current snow drought is wayy worse than anything we've seen before. Central park never got two back to back <10" winters, let alone three. We must have seriously pissed off the snow gods or something. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 On 1/29/2025 at 3:22 PM, anthonymm said: I think we're basically done in terms of snowfall this winter. I'd bet $100 central park finishes with <10" yet again this winter. Idc what anyone says about the 80s this current snow drought is wayy worse than anything we've seen before. Central park never got two back to back <10" winters, let alone three. We must have seriously pissed off the snow gods or something. Expand Bold statement on Jan 29 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonymm Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 On 1/29/2025 at 3:35 PM, MJO812 said: Bold statement on Jan 29 Expand I've seen enough. The pattern has sucked for years now. We couldnt get snow when it was cold and all the teleconnections were awesome, what makes you think we're going to get snow when its warm with shitty teleconnections. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Same story continues on ensembles. Continuation at an attempted overdone SER D13-16 only to see it dampened as it gets closer to D10. Both the GEFS/EPS last night really push the ridge poleward by AK too post 240. Still think we see a couple of events in February, even at the coast. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 On 1/29/2025 at 3:40 PM, anthonymm said: I've seen enough. The pattern has sucked for years now. We couldnt get snow when it was cold and all the teleconnections were awesome, what makes you think we're going to get snow when its warm with shitty teleconnections. Expand Cold air is nearby and the MJO is in a bad phase right now but should round the base. Is this Colin or snowman19 sock ? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 On 1/29/2025 at 12:59 PM, snowman19 said: This is going to be one of the latest peaking La Nina’s on record. They are usually falling apart in February, not strengthening and peaking. Even for a late bloomer La Niña, this is ridiculous. IMO, this argues for a canonical La Niña pattern continuing for longer than some people are thinking Expand I think thats why it was Ben Noll arguing on x last week he does not buy the sudden ENSO model shift to a La Nina next winter, he thinks it may be a rare case of the models being confused by the late peaking La Nina here, he is leaning towards a weak to moderate Nino I believe though none of the climate models show that now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 On 1/29/2025 at 3:54 PM, MJO812 said: Cold air is nearby and the MJO is in a bad phase right now but should round the base. Is this Colin or snowman19 sock ? Expand He's got a point it has sucked for years... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonymm Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 On 1/29/2025 at 3:55 PM, SnowGoose69 said: I think thats why it was Ben Noll arguing on x last week he does not buy the sudden ENSO model shift to a La Nina next winter, he thinks it may be a rare case of the models being confused by the late peaking La Nina here, he is leaning towards a weak to moderate Nino I believe though none of the climate models show that now. Expand weak niño means we might actually pull closer to 20" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 On 1/29/2025 at 3:59 PM, Brian5671 said: He's got a point it has sucked for years... Expand Of course but claiming winter over on January 29 is insane. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Models keep showing a possible storm next week. Could be wintry. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 On 1/29/2025 at 4:22 PM, MJO812 said: Of course but claiming winter over on January 29 is insane. Expand Would you bet your pension against it? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 On 1/29/2025 at 4:23 PM, MJO812 said: Models keep showing a possible storm next week. Could be wintry. Expand you should change your name back to tony you were more happier back then.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Not really understanding the argument that the models are overdoing the SE ridge “again”. This is the 1st time the models are showing a SE ridge this entire winter/end of fall, and 2nd, up until this point, we haven’t had a SE ridge, it’s been totally non existent since the end of November. However now, as @bluewave has stated, it fits La Niña climo; with the big -AAM drop, EWBs and the very late Niña peak/strengthening into early February and MJO progression we are seeing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 On 1/29/2025 at 5:13 AM, LibertyBell said: But I am confused, why are looking at Atlanta's snowfall numbers? Expand I included it to provide some insight into La Niña cases where the storm track was suppressed for a portion of the winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 On 1/29/2025 at 1:14 PM, LibertyBell said: But Atlanta didn't get that much snow they were fringed too. Maybe we could instead look at a city that got more than 3 inches of snow, for example Savannah. Expand With Savannah, the sample size would be too small. Since 1950, there were 3 years with 3" or above snowstorms. Only one of those storms occurred during a La Niña winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 On 1/29/2025 at 4:23 PM, MJO812 said: Models keep showing a possible storm next week. Could be wintry. Expand Only the GFS now for next week BUT the Euro shows it a week later - IMO good idea not to start any new threads till the GFS, Canadian and Euro or at least 2 out of 3 agree on something with accumulating snow and their ensembles for at least a few runs in a row.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 On 1/29/2025 at 12:59 PM, snowman19 said: This is going to be one of the latest peaking La Nina’s on record. They are usually falling apart in February, not strengthening and peaking. Even for a late bloomer La Niña, this is ridiculous. IMO, this argues for a canonical La Niña pattern continuing for longer than some people are thinking Expand Yeah this La Niña developed very differently than recent ones. Still feel the ENSO state for next winter is up in the air, I’m not really sold on an El Niño yet. Multi year cold ENSO periods immediately followed 6/9 of the last strong or super ninos, with 3 of those being the 15-16, 09-10 and 97-98 El Niños. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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