LibertyBell Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 7 hours ago, jm1220 said: Going into Feb gradient patterns are concerning. Might be great for Boston but cold rain/sleet here. It’s also still a Nina and Feb Nina’s try to pump the SE ridge. To our south is naturally starting to warm up and that will have more of an influence. We’d really need a strong high or confluence to keep us on the cold side of any gradient. we will probably have just one shot to get it done, we need a February 2008 type 6-8 inch event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 12 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: I'll go +2 with 2 to 3" of precip I'll go slightly higher on both +3 with 4" of precip February and March will likely both be wet and then we will go back to the much drier pattern in April and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 7 hours ago, jm1220 said: Going into Feb gradient patterns are concerning. Might be great for Boston but cold rain/sleet here. It’s also still a Nina and Feb Nina’s try to pump the SE ridge. To our south is naturally starting to warm up and that will have more of an influence. We’d really need a strong high or confluence to keep us on the cold side of any gradient. @Rjay This is looking like a SWFE. These almost always end up being New England events. The GFS being the furthest south at this range is no surprise at all, it’s destined to adjust further north. These always end up moving further north as we get closer in time. Would not surprise me at all if this ends up being an I-84 north snow/ice storm with very minimal onset frozen to rain south of there. We’ve seen this play out time and time again over the years….. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 It would be nice if 06z GFS verified. Shades of 94 on that run. Unfortunately ensembles are a lot warmer so I don't buy it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 20 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: It would be nice if 06z GFS verified. Shades of 94 on that run. Unfortunately ensembles are a lot warmer so I don't buy it. The NAO is also going to be positive as hell. Nothing about that setup screams big snow/ice south of I-84. No mechanism to stop it from moving further north in time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 7 hours ago, NEG NAO said: This is warm ? February will start off above average as the MJO travels along in the warm phases. After that the pattern will get colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 41 minutes ago, MJO812 said: February will start off above average as the MJO travels along in the warm phases. After that the pattern will get colder. you must agree with the EURO AI warmer solution - the GFS shows a snow/Ice threat here next weekend - no above normal temps plus Walt seems to also believe the GFS solution - he started a winter storm thread for next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 15 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: you must agree with the EURO AI warmer solution - the GFS shows a snowstorm here next weekend - no above normal temps plus Walt seems to also believe the GFS solution - he started a winter storm thread for next weekend Good morning .. ECAI is always variable til it locks (I dont think its locked yet) and so it's part of the thought process that I needed to account for in the thread presentation. WPC already has a significant 30%+ prob of snow ice interior PA high terrain on D7. Both EPS-GEFS had decent 1"+ 10-1 snowfall ratio NYC area for D7, while the CMCE is almost non-existent. Thinking that the pattern is favorable for an event, some of it snow-ice. Would love all snow NYC but at this D7 post, not the likely solution based on all the info that I was able to review. In the meantime, don't be surprised at 0.1 snowfall Tuesday morning and again Wednesday morning NYC CP. Fingers crossed (mine anyway) that this is not a loser. I'm comfortable with this start. Failure is always an option but not likely in my opinion. Just how much of whatever precip type with qpf 0.5-1 inch range. It could be two periods embedded in this 00z/1-12z/3 time frame. What I wrote a small group this morning at 530A: Next weekend Feb 1-2: Monitor for delays and cancellations PANJ northward as at least some snow and ice is expected. Timing and amounts uncertain but this is looking significant. No action yet but maybe we'll know more tomorrow morning. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: The NAO is also going to be positive as hell. Nothing about that setup screams big snow/ice south of I-84. No mechanism to stop it from moving further north in time We can hope for a February 2008 type storm later in the month, that was also an SWFE in a warm pattern and yet it dropped 6-8 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Not much to update from yesterday. Looks like we're still on track for phase 8 with delayed effects last week of February through first 2/3 of March. Also as Don mentioned yesterday, a negative PNA, as we get to mid-February, due to shorter wavelengths is not as detrimental to snow as earlier months. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 The 06 GFS was a weenies dream run - any bets on how the 12Z will compare ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Good Luck getting the temperature 2 degrees above avg this winter in Feb.........I agree with your precip totals maybe 3- 4 inches though but temps closer to normalApril will be unpleasant with high wildfire risk if precipitation continues sporadically as it has been.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Hopefully this happens and is mostly rain or snow not all the ice the gfs is showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 48 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: The 06 GFS was a weenies dream run - any bets on how the 12Z will compare ? Its great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Hopefully this happens and is mostly rain or snow not all the ice the gfs is showing We won’t get ice in this setup 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: We won’t get ice in this setup Cmc is mostly rain. Gfs on an island 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 next weekends event still shows up on the 12Z GFS - forget about above avg temps to start the month 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 7 minutes ago, Allsnow said: We won’t get ice in this setup Let's hope not 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 50 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: next weekends event still shows up on the 12Z GFS - forget about above avg temps to start the month if this happens itwill be great news for the ny reservoir system... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 1 hour ago, NEG NAO said: next weekends event still shows up on the 12Z GFS - forget about above avg temps to start the month 30 inches of snow near Boston seem extremely unlikely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Models are losing the cutter for this weekend . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Icon is rain except for interior NH , VT and Maine for this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 12 hours ago, MJO812 said: Icon is rain except for interior NH , VT and Maine for this weekend Friday is going to be dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Friday is going to be dry It's not...at least according to the icon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Friday is going to be dry Scattered showers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Friday won’t be dry… enjoy the rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Just now, Allsnow said: Friday won’t be dry… enjoy the rain meh I hope that ends up wrong, I want my historically dry January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: It's not...at least according to the icon is this snowfall? 0.6 of snow is only 0.06 of liquid so still within the record.... we need to get less than 0.13 liquid to set a new record Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 I’m excited for manhole explosion season here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 5 hours ago, hooralph said: I’m excited for manhole explosion season here. Wait till we get a good dose of rain there’s more salt on the street than any snow we got this year. White gold for me. Busy times ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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