1/19 - The Roulette Wheel 29 Black Storm - OBS

[Chris78]

I f#cking hate the Euro

[Eskimo Joe]

6 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Still dropping. 35.6/31.8

I'm glad to see this. We're radiating nicely.

[TSSN+]

3 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

I f#cking hate the Euro

Hate all the models. They love to screw us at the last minute. Here’s hoping that was a blip run and we are back to business at 0z 

[katabatic]

12 minutes ago, nj2va said:

33/32.  Just flipped to snow.  

I'm always a little behind you in these setups. Still light rain here, 34.9. The hubby is working a double shift at Wisp today (14 hours omg)...at least he has tomorrow and Monday off. He said today was absolutely wild with the crowds. You guys heading to the slopes this weekend?

[WxMan1]

22 minutes ago, H2O said:

I'm going 2" top end just because there is too much gradient along 95 on most models.  I've lived here too long to get high off hopium models that show more.  I'll be happy to see flakes regardless.  Its just fun to make fun of my area that is worse than DCA at times.  

cyan of sadness, mauve of melancholy, flesh tone of futility.  All good color choices.

2" is my bar here in central AA County. Again, I want a least a decent coating of fresh insulating snow before the deep freeze during the week. A snowpack can mitigate deep frost depths and frozen water lines, and as a homeowner, yes to this please!

[nj2va]

4 minutes ago, katabatic said:

I'm always a little behind you in these setups. Still light rain here, 34.9. The hubby is working a double shift at Wisp today (14 hours omg)...at least he has tomorrow and Monday off. He said today was absolutely wild with the crowds. You guys heading to the slopes this weekend?

32.9 and on track with temps with the mesoscales (3k, HRRR) which showed hitting freezing at 8p.  The line of cars turning into Wisp today was pretty nuts - the ski crowds are here which is great for business.  Yeah, hosting friends here this weekend so we’re going skiing tomorrow.  Should be amazing conditions!  Glad he’s got time off after today.  

[87storms]

Less. Idk seemed like it was missing a chunk of qpf the one frame but whatever. Snow 

Looks kinda lame tbh lol.

One of these days it would be cool to get a mecs up this way.

[Ji]

This storm is gonna bust due to qpf. We never outperform model qpf

[psuhoffman]

17 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Hate all the models. They love to screw us at the last minute. Here’s hoping that was a blip run and we are back to business at 0z 

If you look at the eps the members are all over with where to put that NW band and the screw zone in between. This op run was just one of those random options from the permutations because it’s not capable of actually nailing the exact location of that feature. We could get one of the solutions that death bands us with 5-7” or we could get one of the 3-4” in between solutions.   Just how it is. That’s why you forecasts a range and not an exact number ! 

[H2O]

The darkness has let my temp drop from 44 to 34.  Behold the power of the darkness

[Hank Scorpio]

3 minutes ago, H2O said:

The darkness has let my temp drop from 44 to 34.  Behold the power of the darkness

Just don't forget to sweep your darkness board! My temp instantly dropped 2.2° once I remembered to sweep mine

[H2O]

1 minute ago, Hank Scorpio said:

Just don't forget to sweep your darkness board! My temp instantly dropped 2.2° once I remembered to sweep mine

I hope to be shoveling my darkness this time tomorrow

[uncletim]

Except in Georgetown; it’s still bright sunshine there.

[blizzardmeiser]

8 minutes ago, H2O said:

The darkness has let my temp drop from 44 to 34.  Behold the power of the darkness

Time for a darkness retreat. 

[pazzo83]

Just now, uncletim said:

Except in Georgetown; it’s still bright sunshine there.

74F at the last ob.  Nice beach day on the Potomac.

[mitchnick]

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

If you look at the eps the members are all over with where to put that NW band and the screw zone in between. This op run was just one of those random options from the permutations because it’s not capable of actually nailing the exact location of that feature. We could get one of the solutions that death bands us with 5-7” or we could get one of the 3-4” in between solutions.   Just how it is. That’s why you forecasts a range and not an exact number ! 

It's the Mid Atlantic forum. Shouldn't this be in Banter?

[aldie 22]

32.9

[TSSN+]

36 and cloudy. 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

It's the Mid Atlantic forum. Shouldn't this be in Banter?

?

[mitchnick]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

?

Joke, or a reasonable facsimile thereof!

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Joke, or a reasonable facsimile thereof!

Sorry was taking it too seriously 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

No need to sweat euro qpf, nothing has really changed for dc metro. Just the typical run to run variance. This has always looked like a 2-4 ish event with some boom potential upside.  I still think the northern burbs probably get their 3-6.  

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Sorry was taking it too seriously 

Never, ever take me seriously.  Seriously 

[Round Hill WX]

I’m going with 3-5” here in Round Hill. Looking forward to a great day of family and football tomorrow while it snows. And a few beers. 
32/30

[aldie 22]

Ji's worst nightmare...a commanders loss and tomorrow's storm busting with an inch at his house 

[Ellinwood]

Final snow forecast for tomorrow. Good ratios where the snow can insta-stick mainly NW of I-95, with surface temp and snow rate concerns on the south side of the accumulations (especially during daylight hours).

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

It’s def time to just let the chips fall, we know the general idea, we all know the local geography and climo.  It’s going to snow let’s enjoy it. 

[dailylurker]

The temp is dropping fast. My snowpack made it through the torch! It's nice not being stuck at 50 waiting on the temp to drop. I can't wait for my hike in the snow tomorrow. LFG!

[H2O]

2 minutes ago, Ellinwood said:

Final snow forecast for tomorrow. Good ratios where the snow can insta-stick mainly NW of I-95, with surface temp and snow rate concerns on the south side of the accumulations (especially during daylight hours).

Not in the grey of goddammit but in the cyan of sadness so I’ll take it

[Terpeast]

32.9/30.5