1/19 - The Roulette Wheel 29 Black Storm - OBS

[Round Hill WX]

3.25” final in Round Hill. Congrats to the Nams and the Euro on the qpf front. The GFS needs a recalibration. 13.25” on the season. 

[mitchnick]

5 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Ya I measured 7”. This is the biggest snowfall for me in the past like 5 years. 

I got 6.5" but measured on the sidewalk in 2 increments, 4.5 and 2. It's fluff so it'll be at 5" before morning if the winds don't blow it away. 

[TSSN+]

8 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I got 6.5" but measured on the sidewalk in 2 increments, 4.5 and 2. It's fluff so it'll be at 5" before morning if the winds don't blow it away. 

Happy to finally win one for once. I had warnings for 6” last year in two events and didn’t get over 3” in either event in Westminster. 

[mattie g]

35 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

One final band going through...my sidewalk is covered again.....  

Sorry man…that sucks.

[mattie g]

20 minutes ago, Warm Nose said:

RGEM yesterday. Honestly not too far off - the thermals wrecked things east of 15.

Not so much the thermals as the precip (at least for MBY).

[MountainGeek]

Finished just under 6" - trees heavily loaded with the initial batch of wet snow and then topped with powder -- gorgeous out there. 

[dailylurker]

I just looked at my point and click. What happened to extreme cold. They raised temps by about 10 degrees over what it showed 2 days ago. Looks like a typical cold shot. Nothing record breaking. Models way overdue cold. Where's my -2. It's now 11. Wow lol

[StormyClearweather]

Dulles - 1.4"

Reagan - .3"

BWI - 1"

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, StormyClearweather said:

Dulles - 1.4"

Reagan - .3"

BWI - 1"

Dang didn't even get to the 2 of the 2-4, lol

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, StormyClearweather said:

Dulles - 1.4"

Reagan - .3"

BWI - 1"

[Warm Nose]

4 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said:

Dulles - 1.4"

Reagan - .3"

BWI - 1"

I think that meets 'BUST' criteria ...

[nj2va]

Down to 14, SN and welcoming the dendrites back. 8.3”

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Cool event, only about 0.5 maybe but we had 30-45 minutes of great conditions it looks wintry and it’s cold.  Glad the northern folks cashed in.  Really thought we’d get a few inches with this setup but the modeling was out to lunch with the QPF for us. 

[Paleocene]

Great storm up in Harrisburg. Probably 6" of fluffy big dendrites. Light, not accumulating stuff all morning til mid afternoon. Snowed hard from about 2pm-6pm. Excellent deform band stuff. Back to the snow hole tomorrow 

[PrinceFrederickWx]

0.4" for this storm, bringing the monthly total to 13.9".

My target now is:

1) keeping the snowpack all month

2) clinching snowiest month ever IMBY (the record for that is 16.7" in January 2022).

Let's keep the nickels-and-dimes going!

[uncletim]

1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Honestly I was mostly joking. This was a ~50mi shift from it being right. Remarkable consistency. Will still tar its reputation on this forum I imagine. 

Did it (Euro AI) ever “adjust”? Was it better than conventional Euro, say, 4 days out? Serious questions, not snark. Just wondering where it’s most useful.

[87storms]

Reports of 3" in downtown Frederick and 4.6" up the street from me a couple miles.  Makes sense.  I probably got 3.5-4".

This one kinda made up for the January 6 situation.

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, uncletim said:

Did it (Euro AI) ever “adjust”? Was it better than conventional Euro, say, 4 days out? Serious questions, not snark. Just wondering where it’s most useful.

It started shifting the max qpf north some but not nearly enough but every model missed it. 

[87storms]

36 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said:

Dulles - 1.4"

Reagan - .3"

BWI - 1"

This low key helps my snowfall forecast...leaves me a little wiggle room lol.

[Terpeast]

Looks like my forecast did alright for far NW burbs, busted pretty badly along i-95.

Mby got close to low end of 3”, probably did reach that if I measured using a snowboard, but I just stuck a ruler on the sidewalk and again on my deck so I naturally got a more conservative number given all the compaction and melting.

What went wrong? Simple. Cold air got delayed a few hours, while best frontgen banding was 30 miles NW of model outputs. Tough to get those mesoscale details right even 12-24 hours in advance, impossible beyond 24h. It didn’t impact places like Round Hill or Frederick much, but such a minor shift robbed us in the i-95 corridor. Unfortunate but it is what it is.

Nrn folks, this one was yours. Enjoy! I know I did, too!

[Amped]

Philly to Boston will do fine. Always the southern 100 miles of the snow swath that busts.

[uncletim]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It started shifting the max qpf north some but not nearly enough but every model missed it. 

Thanks for the reply. Curious because it seems to me that weather modeling is one area where AI can be truly useful to society - possibly a major upgrade in modeling, which from my uneducated perspective seems to have stalled somewhat. But I also know we are only in the intitial stages of AI implementation.

[Kay]

21 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Down to 14, SN and welcoming the dendrites back. 8.3”

Mm marshmallows... always enjoy the pics from your place.

Finished with 1.25" here. Nice to have some snow cover for the cold.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

4 minutes ago, Amped said:

Philly to Boston will do fine. Always the southern 100 miles of the snow swath that busts.

Looks fairly disappointing in nyc according to my brother.  Eyeballing a couple inches back edge racing through there now. 

[midatlanticweather]

1 hour ago, Round Hill WX said:

3.25” final in Round Hill. Congrats to the Nams and the Euro on the qpf front. The GFS needs a recalibration. 13.25” on the season. 

2.7 down the street here in Purcellvillle 

[87storms]

17 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Looks like my forecast did alright for far NW burbs, busted pretty badly along i-95.

Mby got close to low end of 3”, probably did reach that if I measured using a snowboard, but I just stuck a ruler on the sidewalk and again on my deck so I naturally got a more conservative number given all the compaction and melting.

What went wrong? Simple. Cold air got delayed a few hours, while best frontgen banding was 30 miles NW of model outputs. Tough to get those mesoscale details right even 12-24 hours in advance, impossible beyond 24h. It didn’t impact places like Round Hill or Frederick much, but such a minor shift robbed us in the i-95 corridor. Unfortunate but it is what it is.

Nrn folks, this one was yours. Enjoy! I know I did, too!

I only got a little more than you.  I think the real screwjob was the fall line.  Your analysis makes sense, though...seems like the boundary was a little further nw and maybe why some of those heavier bands along 95 shifted more towards 70.

[MN Transplant]

1 hour ago, mattie g said:

Not so much the thermals as the precip (at least for MBY).

Both, but of course everything is interrelated.

Getting chilly now.

[notvirga!]

only about 1” or 1.5” in Owings Mills. Guess I’ll go for a drive tomorrow to northern Carroll to see some snow. 

[Interstate]

Officially 1.5 inches 

this why I don’t care if I am under a WSW. I was supposed to get over 5 according to the warning. I basically got what I thought I would. 

[Fozz]

31 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Looks like my forecast did alright for far NW burbs, busted pretty badly along i-95.

Mby got close to low end of 3”, probably did reach that if I measured using a snowboard, but I just stuck a ruler on the sidewalk and again on my deck so I naturally got a more conservative number given all the compaction and melting.

What went wrong? Simple. Cold air got delayed a few hours, while best frontgen banding was 30 miles NW of model outputs. Tough to get those mesoscale details right even 12-24 hours in advance, impossible beyond 24h. It didn’t impact places like Round Hill or Frederick much, but such a minor shift robbed us in the i-95 corridor. Unfortunate but it is what it is.

Nrn folks, this one was yours. Enjoy! I know I did, too!

Do you think one led to the other?

In other words, did that delay of cold air directly cause the frontogenesis bands to develop well NW of where most models had them?