1/19 - The Roulette Wheel 29 Black Storm - OBS

[Solution Man]

Incoming round of snow for Loudoun and Prince William counties 

[mappy]

3 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

Really nice band moving through to finish this event off. High ratio stuff. Looks like 6 plus out there.

The bands were good to y’all out there today! 

[aldie 22]

Just cleared everything it was easy to push with a shovel. I'd say roughly a little more than 2"

[TSSN+]

Just about 7” here. Still snowing, very fluffy diamond like snow. 

[T. August]

I’m out but eyeballing close to 2”

[jmk]

Took out the trash and while the driveway looked clear I just shoveled a ton of frozen slush. Super easy to clear but was a surprising amount. Gonna be nasty out there in the AM. 

[H2O]

.75”

[Round Hill WX]

Last band is legit. 25 degrees. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Another laat gasp band trying for the far NW suburbs?

[aldie 22]

Hopefully that last band brings the goods 28.2

[high risk]

I’m assuming that final band is on the leading edge of the arctic air. 

[WEATHER53]

1” total and 30.5F at 7pm 

[North Balti Zen]

35 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

For now on I'm never tossing the HRRR, RGEM, NAM if they suddenly show some non storm run. Most likely it's the only model with the right idea lol

as always, whichever model goes sideways before the event starts showing a looming bust, just go with that one. Changes from storm to storm as to which will call the bust correctly, but one always does. 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Looks like the drier models get the win with this one. I had 0.03" before it changed to frozen. Might end up with 0.15 total max.

The best banding just shifted NW which isn’t unusual with these type waves, unfortunately even at the last minute. We’ve had several busts just like this. But my area up into PA did get 4-8” the dryer models didn’t have that. No model for this right. One of the rgem runs as it started to correct but before it over corrected was probably the closest. 

[Weather Will]

One final band going through...my sidewalk is covered again.....  

[T. August]

21 minutes ago, T. August said:

I’m out but eyeballing close to 2”

Need new eyes - 1.3” lol

[North Balti Zen]

21 minutes ago, T. August said:

I’m out but eyeballing close to 2”

We ended up the same, depending on if any last gasps. 

[Interstate]

24.6 

[blizzardmeiser]

Still snowing, 2.2

[psuhoffman]

21/19

6” exactly. Still snowing lightly. Might be one more band to go. 
 

Im sorry this didn’t work out further south. I am grateful for events like this when my elevation and latitude help. Makes the commute worth it. And it is legit nice up here in summer when it’s the 80s with a breeze when it’s 94 in Baltimore lol. 

[T. August]

2 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

We ended up the same, depending on if any last gasps. 

I amended that lol

[Chris78]

19 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Another laat gasp band trying for the far NW suburbs?

Yeap. That was a nice little band that came through .

Added another .25.

[psuhoffman]

48 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

This storm set back Euro AI acceptance years 

It got the structure of the storm it just shifted 30-50 miles north at game time and every model missed that even the rgem which was right then went south with everything else lol. So I dunno how to grade that. 

39 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

Really nice band moving through to finish this event off. High ratio stuff. Looks like 6 plus out there.

I might be low because I’m measuring 6” but some of the early stuff might have compacted and it’s windy up on this ridge so that makes it hard. 

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

It got the structure of the storm it just shifted 30-50 miles north at game time and every model missed that even the rgem which was right then went south with everything else lol. So I dunno how to grade that. 

I might be low because I’m measuring 6” but some of the early stuff might have compacted and it’s windy up on this ridge so that makes it hard. 

Same here I think. 6.25” at the moment. 

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

It got the structure of the storm it just shifted 30-50 miles north at game time and every model missed that even the rgem which was right then went south with everything else lol. So I dunno how to grade that. 

I might be low because I’m measuring 6” but some of the early stuff might have compacted and it’s windy up on this ridge so that makes it hard. 

Ya I measured 7”. This is the biggest snowfall for me in the past like 5 years. 

[Roger Ramjet]

Looks like I will end up at slightly over 4". Worried about drifting on my access road tomorrow.

[psuhoffman]

There are reports of 8-9” in some isolates spots in south central PA.  The 4-8” area ended up starting in extreme NW VA through northern MD border counties north into south central PA. 
 

Then the gradient south of that was severe. Those rgem runs we made fun of ended up pretty close actually unfortunately.  These kinds of game time NW shifts with these boundary waves make up a large % of our areas busts. This isn’t that rare unfortunately. I always fear a north shift with these type storms. 

[Chris_B]

Well, 0.25” (rounding up) and 29.5° F in N Arlington near 7 Corners.  Bust AF :-(

[Warm Nose]

RGEM yesterday. Honestly not too far off - the thermals wrecked things east of 15.

[hstorm]

Right around 2 inches in Great Falls. Couldn’t get a good measurement because we went and spent the afternoon at Top Golf in Sterling. Awesome experience in the snow.
 

This was a great storm here. A bit less snow than projected but the rates this afternoon were incredible. Nice to have a fresh layer of white for the incoming arctic blast.