1/19 - The Roulette Wheel 29 Black Storm - OBS

[HighStakes]

It's fine. Right in line with Euro's qpf. No worries here!

[DDweatherman]

Just now, HighStakes said:

It's fine. Right in line with Euro's qpf. No worries here!

I think my bar is 5” but maybe 4 or 4.5”

[Ji]

That was directed at Randy’s pbp wasn’t it? Lol 

Yeah, because somebody else said it was much drier

[stormtracker]

Just now, Ji said:

Yeah, because somebody else said it was much drier

[TSSN+]

Just now, Ji said:

Yeah, because somebody else said it was much drier

For most it is. 
 

 

[HighStakes]

1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

I think my bar is 5” but maybe 4 or 4.5”

4 or 5 would be acceptable but it's time for an overperformer here. Time for a solid 7 or slightly more.

[DDweatherman]

Just now, Ji said:

Yeah, because somebody else said it was much drier

It’s an IMBY sport, you know that better than anyone. Why people pretend they care wtf happens at CAPE’s house when they’re 100 miles west or NW in a completely different climo is funny to me. It’s nice when we all win but it’s tough. It’s hard to get snow these days. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

4 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

For most it is. 
 

 

Just coming back down to earth, coming into consensus with everything.  I don’t think 6+ for the majority of Maryland was ever going to happen.  Still a great run for pretty much all of us. 

[goodwidp]

Forecast map from CWG:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2025/01/18/dc-snow-cold-forecast/

 

 

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

Mby station is reporting 47.5 as the high, now 47. Under sunny skies. Full two degrees warmer than other obs, so probably 45 is the real temperature. May need to calibrate my station temp…

After posting this, I’m down to 42

[T. August]

36.2° after a high of 38.7° 

[aldie 22]

Dropping fast under clear skies and no wind 40.3

[MN Transplant]

High of 44, current 42.  Remaining snowcover took a big hit today, but hopefully we can a least a couple tomorrow.

[Warm Nose]

42 here 

[Ji]

Dropping fast under clear skies and no wind 40.3

Yes! And it’s only 5:09

[WxUSAF]

lol 18z Herpderp now the weeniest model for the area 

[NorthArlington101]

Greetings from a hill(?) in Nelson County. At about 1000ft. We'll see...

[psuhoffman]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

lol 18z Herpderp now the weeniest model for the area 

It was never as bad as the rgem with the NW over amped thing too 

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

lol 18z Herpderp now the weeniest model for the area 

Please post the Herpes, we’ve posted everything else

[aldie 22]

My remaining snow heading into tomorrow my silly snowstick ornament still around 1"

[nj2va]

Down to 34/33 with drizzle. 

[clskinsfan]

Hit 49 here today. Currently 44/33 We will see how quickly the cold air actually makes it in here. 

[psuhoffman]

OMFG regarding the gfs qpf panic. 
 

1. stop letting that damn blue/purple color change on the map influence your impression of the run. Yes green to blue is this dramatic change but if the actual qpf went from .53 to .47 that’s noise.  It’s a .05 qpf difference. And that’s what it was for most places on the gfs. 

2. the kuchera snowfall map took an additional hit because it looks like it reduced the ratios a little bit NW of 95. Maybe it has a warm layer it didn’t have. Maybe the VVs in the DGz are less aligned.
 

I haven’t looked and probably won’t because going from a prediction of 7” from .46 qpf to 5.8” from .40 (Westminster) is Fucking NOISE!!!     Both are within the same predicted range and neither would be a bust and if you think that level of change run to run is a big deal you’re in the wrong game. 

[Interstate]

36.5/34.7 after a high of 39 here 21057

[87storms]

I'm always prepared for a bust.  
Just looked at IMBY going back to 04-05, I have 28 events between 2-4".  4.25" and 1.75" dont count
I'd say 
50% met range expectations
20% overperformer
30% underperformer
I dont know what this means.  But I like numbers
 
 
 

Numbers are fun, but the confusion matrix in ML has taught me just how misleading they can be. To me, a 2-4/3-6 event is a success if the grass is covered. Small branches on the ground can stick up, but I only accept it on small quantities. And that’s my version of not knowing what that means.

[clskinsfan]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

OMFG regarding the gfs qpf panic. 
 

1. stop letting that damn blue/purple color change on the map influence your impression of the run. Yes green to blue is this dramatic change but if the actual qpf went from .53 to .47 that’s noise.  It’s a .05 qpf difference. And that’s what it was for most places on the gfs. 

2. the kuchera snowfall map took an additional hit because it looks like it reduced the ratios a little bit NW of 95. Maybe it has a warm layer it didn’t have. Maybe the VVs in the DGz are less aligned.
 

I haven’t looked and probably won’t because going from a prediction of 7” from .46 qpf to 5.8” from .40 is Fucking NOISE!!!     Both are working the same predicted range and neither would be a bust and if you think that level of change run to run is a big deal you’re in the wrong game. 

Agreed. It is a 3-5 storm. And has always been a 3-5 storm. Moving way to fast for it to be any more than that. Outside of a lolly or slant stick somewhere. 

[stormtracker]

Just now, clskinsfan said:

Agreed. It is a 3-5 storm. And has always been a 3-5 storm. Moving way to fast for it to be any more than that. Outside of a lolly somewhere. 

Pretty much always been that way for you guys and 2-4 for us.  People really need to manage their expectations.   Cities ain't getting 6" from this.

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

Agreed. It is a 3-5 storm. And has always been a 3-5 storm. Moving way to fast for it to be any more than that. Outside of a lolly somewhere. 

I think this is right but I think there is a small band that could get 8” in places but very localized and hard to pin that down.  In general 3-5 probably will characterize the larger Max band well. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

7 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Pretty much always been that way for you guys and 2-4 for us.  People really need to manage their expectations.   Cities ain't getting 6" from this.

Yup...not all that long ago this looked like a decent minor or so level event, probably no more than 3-5" anywhere, with a blast of cold on its heels.  Still a lot of fun!  Then we had a few model runs that gave DC and other areas 6"+ and all too many people raised their expectations to that level.  So tearing of hair and gnashing of teeth at every single blip.  I get the concern we've had about temperatures in the metro areas, that's certainly legitimate, but this belief that we're all going to score a warning-level snow (or else it's a failure) is a bit much.

[Maestrobjwa]

46 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Don’t panic at the gfs being dry as ass then

Who said I'm panicking about anything, tho? There's a difference between panic and expressing a general annoyance at your geography, lol Nah I'm just gonna enjoy the snow day!