1/19 - The Roulette Wheel 29 Black Storm - OBS

[Deck Pic]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Interesting fact: some people go to church on Saturday.  All religions aren't the same.

You're welcome.

I should have gone to jew church this morning.  I will pray alone.  God is good.

[blizzardmeiser]

18 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

We gotta start noting shit like this.   Canada was too amp'd vs other models.  When it's out there like that, we gotta remember.  It's still not ideal for city folks, but it's definitely caving/caved

Can we finally put the RGEM to bed?? How many times does it have to be wrong? Asking for a friend. 

[psuhoffman]

46 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

LWX bumped up totals for 95 and points N/W

My main concern now is for who ends up between the bands. That area is still 2-3” but will feel screwed when 5-6” totals are on either side of them!   That’s a nowcast thing. 

[mappy]

The legend not being in order based on time is annoying the piss outta me on this graphic. 

[psuhoffman]

43 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Do any of you think Baltimore gets 3-4?

North side like Mt Washington definitely. 

[mappy]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

My main concern now is for who ends up between the bands. That area is still 2-3” but will feel screwed when 5-6” totals are on either side of them!   That’s a nowcast thing. 

I’ve been down both sides before. It’s much better in the band than just outside lol

[psuhoffman]

34 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

No reduction in qpf on 12z AI

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_aifs&p=qpf_acc-imp&rh=2025011812&fh=60&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

It dropped me from .51 to .47.  I’m infuriated. Crap model. 

[Weather Will]

11 minutes ago, Ji said:

It’s Saturday

Catholics also go to church at the Saturday vigil....

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

North side like Mt Washington definitely. 

Darn it I'm closer to Towson, lol Is there something geographic that makes it hard for bands to set up over the city? Or is it literally random?

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It dropped me from .51 to .47.  I’m infuriated. Crap model. 

Ji hack your account? 

[psuhoffman]

30 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Complete cave by the RGEM it appears

This run yes. But to be fair it (along with parent ggem) was the first to see this storm at all and while at the end it did cave to where the euro and gfs are now if you go back 72 hours they trended toward it like 80% of the way before it came the final 20%. Remember the gfs and euro were weak OTS waves when the ggem had the storm.  I’m not telling anyone how to grade and what to weight when doing it but I don’t only look at the final 24 hours in my analysis. 

[yoda]

6 minutes ago, mappy said:

The legend not being in order based on time is annoying the piss outta me on this graphic. 

Took me a second to realize it, but as a geography major, that is stupid 

[mappy]

My point and click has added sleet to my total. Not surprised. I’ve def lucked out before where I’ve stayed cold enough at the mid levels to stay all snow, but have also definitely lost qpf to sleet while the column cooled. Every bit of elevation helps in that regard, which is why places to my NW, like New Freedom, Manchester, etc. will do 2” or so better than me. 

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, mappy said:

My point and click has added sleet to my total. Not surprised. I’ve def lucked out before where I’ve stayed cold enough at the mid levels to stay all snow, but have also definitely lost qpf to sleet while the column cooled. Every bit of elevation helps in that regard, which is why places to my NW, like New Freedom, Manchester, etc. will do 2” or so better than me. 

I only think that’s for the very first hour or so. If you look at the hourly it has one hour period of slight chance sleet. 

[psuhoffman]

18 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Love how far south that 2-4 zone goes.  Lotta wiggle room. 

It’s an analog based model at very low resolution that smooths the edges so be careful using it to define things like that. It’s a great look. Just saying. 

10 minutes ago, mappy said:

I’ve been down both sides before. It’s much better in the band than just outside lol

We are in the game for the NW band for sure. We’re not in danger of being in the rain screw zone our only possible disappointment is if we end to between the band that likely hits just NW if the rain snow boundary and the band further NW that’s often where the best moisture convergence hits where the mid levels are conducive for good snow growth and banding.  I think we get into that one but that kind of thing is a nowcast thing. 

7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Darn it I'm closer to Towson, lol Is there something geographic that makes it hard for bands to set up over the city? Or is it literally random?

If you’re near Towson Mt Washington is south of you. Chill. 

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s an analog based model at very low resolution that smooths the edges so be careful using it to define things like that. It’s a great look. Just saying. 

We are in the game for the NW band for sure. We’re not in danger of being in the rain screw zone our only possible disappointment is if we end to between the band that likely hits just NW if the rain snow boundary and the band further NW that’s often where the best moisture convergence hits where the mid levels are conducive for good snow growth and banding.  I think we get into that one but that kind of thing is a nowcast thing. 

If you’re near Towson Mt Washington is south of you. Chill. 

I'm just south of Towson closer to Morgan State--guess I shoulda been more accurate about that. Mt. Washington is west of me.

Btw not panicking at all man. Just wondering, lol

[DDweatherman]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I'm just south of Towson closer to Morgan State--guess I shoulda been more accurate about that. Mt. Washington is west of me.

Btw not panicking at all man. Just wondering, lol

Don’t panic at the gfs being dry as ass then

[TSSN+]

Gfs coming in much drier 

[stormtracker]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Gfs coming in much drier 

Is it?  I need to investigate.  I was talking more for keeping us snow down here

[Ji]

GFS holds btw

Smh

[rjvanals]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Gfs coming in much drier 

Pretty much noise around the metros qpf wise

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

Smh

Don't cry.  Might only be 0.3

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

Smh

Eastern Loudoun downgraded to a special weather statement 

[TSSN+]

Lost good amount of aerial qpf.

 

[Ji]

Gfs coming in much drier 

Terrible post. Let Randy handle it

[DDweatherman]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

Smh

That was directed at Randy’s pbp wasn’t it? Lol 

[stormtracker]

Looks like a hold down this way.

[WxUSAF]

GFS looks just slightly less amped and farther SE accordingly. 

[stormtracker]

 

Just now, DDweatherman said:

That was directed at Randy’s pbp wasn’t it? Lol 

He was loud and wrong

[mattie g]

1 hour ago, DarkSharkWX said: