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1/19 - The Roulette Wheel 29 Black Storm - OBS


DDweatherman
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2 minutes ago, TowsonWeather said:

Models by no means did a "good job portraying the difficult setup in this one." Every storm has a cutoff and every storm has a certain degree of uncertainty or complexity. But I've been on these boards for a very long time and this is one of the worst misses for a wide swath of the region I can remember. 

December 30, 2000.

Fairfax County was supposed to get 4 to 8 inches.

We got . . . CLEAR SKIES.

It wasn't even cloudy.

Now THAT'S a bust.

Runner-up: losing a promised white Christmas in 1985, because "the cold air stalled over the Appalachians." 

I'll never forget that.

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7 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Alright it’s finally good here now, so how long realistically do we have? 5pm? Trying to plan my jeb walks. 

Looks like around 0.2-0.3" qpf remaining in Central MD based off the 18z nam.  initializes at 1pm, so may need to subtract a bit.

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Models by no means did a "good job portraying the difficult setup in this one." Every storm has a cutoff and every storm has a certain degree of uncertainty or complexity. But I've been on these boards for a very long time and this is one of the worst misses for a wide swath of the region I can remember. 

Respectfully on most model runs there was a very hard line between decent snow and nothing it was just the placement that was unknown. Not that it matters but I’ve been around since the old forum as well and this one didn’t feel like nearly as big a miss as some of the heartbreakers in the past. If I’m wrong I’m wrong *shrug*

Moderate sleet at BWI. Sticking instantly though.
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