1/19 - The Roulette Wheel 29 Black Storm - OBS

[WVclimo]

High heat staying just to the south of me where the sun has come out.  Overcast and 41/35 here.

[winter_warlock]

 42 here in sparrows point MD  ..

 

[mitchnick]

Hair better on Rgem

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2025011818&fh=24&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ma&p=prateptype-imp&m=rdps

[stormtracker]

Complete cave by the RGEM it appears

[aldie 22]

3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Mby station is reporting 47.5 as the high, now 47. Under sunny skies. Full two degrees warmer than other obs, so probably 45 is the real temperature. May need to calibrate my station temp…

My backyard station says 45.3  mine seems to run a bit cold at night but spot on during the day compared to surrounding stations

[hstorm]

46 minutes ago, rjvanals said:

NAMs still aren't overly enthused with the storm and have delayed the cold with DCA not getting to freezing until noon tomorrow

On Pivotal, DCA is below freezing by midnight on the 3k NAM. 

[Interstate]

RGEM came around finally

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Hair better on Rgem

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2025011818&fh=24&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ma&p=prateptype-imp&m=rdps

I thought it looked a lot better for us city dwellers?  Honestly, didn't look at 12z all that much in detail

[DDweatherman]

3 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

Is your track record any good?

Aside from the 29 blackjack references, I think so. Had a few weather business endeavors and have been going at it for 15 years. I’m not S&S 

[PWC Split]

44/37 bright sunshine in Haymarket. A good amount of melting today but still 100% snow coverage in front and back yard.

[87storms]

I find the rgem to be a budget nam.

[Solution Man]

12 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Mby station is reporting 47.5 as the high, now 47. Under sunny skies. Full two degrees warmer than other obs, so probably 45 is the real temperature. May need to calibrate my station temp…

Dropping like a rock at sundown, clear sky’s 43 in the Market 

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z RGEM

[stormtracker]

3 minutes ago, Interstate said:

RGEM came around finally

We gotta start noting shit like this.   Canada was too amp'd vs other models.  When it's out there like that, we gotta remember.  It's still not ideal for city folks, but it's definitely caving/caved

[Weather Will]

Off to church:  I will pray for a BECS before the end of winter...

[DDweatherman]

Just now, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z RGEM

I promise I did not produce that RGEM output; but it sure looks like something I’d put out. 

[Deck Pic]

1 minute ago, 87storms said:

Oh, trust me, same lol.  But keeping expectations in check.

I'm always prepared for a bust.  

Just looked at IMBY going back to 04-05, I have 28 events between 2-4".  4.25" and 1.75" dont count

I'd say 

50% met range expectations

20% overperformer

30% underperformer

I dont know what this means.  But I like numbers

 

 

 

[DDweatherman]

Just now, stormtracker said:

We gotta start noting shit like this.   Canada was too amp'd vs other models.  When it's out there like that, we gotta remember.  It's still not ideal for city folks, but it's definitely caving/caved

Lot to be noted on both sides. Definitely noticed the euro meet it in the middle and being quite light on QPF until yesterday. Canadians were amped AF but did have this storm for several days. As for the Euro AIFS, boy was it steady. 

[Deck Pic]

5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

We gotta start noting shit like this.   Canada was too amp'd vs other models.  When it's out there like that, we gotta remember.  It's still not ideal for city folks, but it's definitely caving/caved

Reggie is way better thankfully.  We'll still be analyzing the canadian at 11 pm.  It better get in line, or I'm in favor of annexing Canadia

[Interstate]

I can tell you right now the ground is still frozen solid. 

[DDweatherman]

We’re almost a week from the anniversary of 1/26/11, one of my favorites. Correct me if I’m wrong, wasn’t that the @psuhoffman storm? Turned out to be commutageddon

[TSG]

High temps look to bust about 4 degrees lower than the NWS forecast here in Charlottesville. Made it to 45 at 3pm but it hasn't moved since. Forecast was 49

[Deck Pic]

7 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Lot to be noted on both sides. Definitely noticed the euro meet it in the middle and being quite light on QPF until yesterday. Canadians were amped AF but did have this storm for several days. As for the Euro AIFS, boy was it steady. 

It's solid

You guys in Carroll and S PA should get some good ratios

[Deck Pic]

1 minute ago, TSG said:

High temps look to bust about 4 degrees lower than the NWS forecast here in Charlottesville. Made it to 45 at 3pm but it hasn't moved since. Forecast was 49

I'm 45/36. We seem to have bumped up 3 degrees here in DC. It doesnt matter though. We'll have the cold air

[Ji]

Off to church:  I will pray for a BECS before the end of winter...

It’s Saturday

[Deck Pic]

4 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

We’re almost a week from the anniversary of 1/26/11, one of my favorites. Correct me if I’m wrong, wasn’t that the @psuhoffman storm? Turned out to be commutageddon

bowling ball

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

It’s Saturday

Some have service/mass on Saturdays, brother.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

4 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

It's solid

You guys in Carroll and S PA should get some good ratios

Love how far south that 2-4 zone goes.  Lotta wiggle room. 

[Deck Pic]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

It’s Saturday

MBC should have saturday service when there is a snowstorm coming on a Sunday.  3.5" for Lon's house in Mantua

[stormtracker]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

It’s Saturday

Interesting fact: some people go to church on Saturday.  All religions aren't the same.

You're welcome.