1/19 - The Roulette Wheel 29 Black Storm - OBS

[stormtracker]

12 minutes ago, rjvanals said:

NAMs still aren't overly enthused with the storm and have delayed the cold with DCA not getting to freezing until noon tomorrow

So same as 12z.  Got it. (12k)

[CAPE]

temp up to 40 at 330. Clearing in the western sky with some sun.

Damn I must be bored.

Close enough to HH. Time to crack open a Bourbon County Brand Stout

[bncho]

Models are saying 3-6" but my gut is telling me 1-3". What should I believe?

[TSSN+]

Just now, bncho said:

Models are saying 3-6" but my gut is telling me 1-3". What should I believe?

How much for South Carolina? 

[bncho]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

How much for South Carolina? 

3-6" for Charleston for Wednesday hahaha

[winter_warlock]

13 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Lost me at "thankfully"

I'm guessing  LWX don't share our enthusiasm  for snow lol

[WxUSAF]

LWX bumped up totals for 95 and points N/W

[yoda]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

LWX bumped up totals for 95 and points N/W

In their zones or in their winter graphics?

[Deck Pic]

27 minutes ago, rjvanals said:

NAMs still aren't overly enthused with the storm and have delayed the cold with DCA not getting to freezing until noon tomorrow

DCA never goes above 33.  There is no delay.  There just isn't a ton of moisture

[DarkSharkWX]

[Maestrobjwa]

17 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Lost me at "thankfully"

Yeah man what heat miser wrote that one? Smh

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, DarkSharkWX said:

Do any of you think Baltimore gets 3-4?

[bncho]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Do any of you think Baltimore gets 3-4?

No. Either 1-2" or 5-8".

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

DCA never goes above 33.  There is no delay.  There just isn't a ton of moisture

Exactly. I went to check vs 12z and there wasn't any delay.  Let's expect 2 and maybe get 4 and ride this mf to destiny

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Do any of you think Baltimore gets 3-4?

Yes, why not? 

[dailylurker]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Exactly. I went to check vs 12z and there wasn't any delay.  Let's expect 2 and maybe get 4 and ride this mf to destiny

That would put the lowlands at almost climo. LFG!

[DDweatherman]

Forecast as of now for some areas of note

BWI: 3-5”

DCA: 2-3”

IAD: 4-6”

FDK: 5-7”

MRB: 5-7”

EZF: 2-3”

OKV: 5-7”

Jackpot zone is indeed back to the old zone of Catoctins (east of 81/70 area - Smithsburg across to Westminster/Parrs over to 83 corridor (New Freedom/Shrewbury) 

[87storms]

3 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Forecast as of now for some areas of note

BWI: 3-5”

DCA: 2-3”

IAD: 4-6”

FDK: 5-7”

MRB: 5-7”

EZF: 2-3”

OKV: 5-7”

Jackpot zone is indeed back to the old zone of Catoctins (east of 81/70 area - Smithsburg across to Westminster/Parrs over to 83 corridor (New Freedom/Shrewbury) 

Approved.

[Deck Pic]

7 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Exactly. I went to check vs 12z and there wasn't any delay.  Let's expect 2 and maybe get 4 and ride this mf to destiny

3k at 11 am and ripping for 5-6 hours.  LWX has 66% chance DCA tops 2"

2 would suck to be honest.  3" would be pretty dope.  4 would rock my world.  5"+ and I'm taking you out for a McDonald's sit down dinner.  

[mitchnick]

No reduction in qpf on 12z AI

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_aifs&p=qpf_acc-imp&rh=2025011812&fh=60&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

[somecallmetim]

18 minutes ago, CAPE said:

temp up to 40 at 330. Clearing in the western sky with some sun.

Damn I must be bored.

Close enough to HH. Time to crack open a Bourbon County Brand Stout

We don't know each other, but our tastes in beer do and get along fabulously. 

[Terpeast]

Mby station is reporting 47.5 as the high, now 47. Under sunny skies. Full two degrees warmer than other obs, so probably 45 is the real temperature. May need to calibrate my station temp…

[87storms]

13 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

DCA never goes above 33.  There is no delay.  There just isn't a ton of moisture

Kind of a weak surface low and it's gonna be zipping as the cold air moves in.

I've been getting February 2, 2010 vibes with this one.  Nice little event, but not a very high ceiling given the entire setup.

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Deck Pic said:

3k at 11 am and ripping for 5-6 hours.  LWX has 66% chance DCA tops 2"

2 would suck to be honest.  3" would be pretty dope.  4 would rock my world.  5"+ and I'm taking you out for a McDonald's sit down dinner.  

Haven't had McDs in a year.   I'll have the Double QP with bacon meal, no cheese.  Gonna super size it.  Special Occassion.  We can hit the one in Admo

[Deck Pic]

Just now, 87storms said:

Kind of a weak surface low and it's gonna be zipping as the cold air moves in.

I've been getting February 2, 2010 vibes with this one.  Nice little event, but not a very high ceiling given the entire setup.

I got 4.25". We take

[aldie 22]

8 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Forecast as of now for some areas of note

BWI: 3-5”

DCA: 2-3”

IAD: 4-6”

FDK: 5-7”

MRB: 5-7”

EZF: 2-3”

OKV: 5-7”

Jackpot zone is indeed back to the old zone of Catoctins (east of 81/70 area - Smithsburg across to Westminster/Parrs over to 83 corridor (New Freedom/Shrewbury) 

Is your track record any good?

[87storms]

Just now, Deck Pic said:

I got 4.25". We take

Oh, trust me, same lol.  But keeping expectations in check.

[Interstate]

It is sunny here but losing heat. Down to 37.8/35.1. The dewpoint has not budged. 

[mitchnick]

At 21hrs, Heights about 20 miles south of 12z run on 18z Rgem.

[SnowenOutThere]

RGEM finally caving with a further southeast rain snow line.