1/19 - The Roulette Wheel 29 Black Storm - OBS

[stormtracker]

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

why is it having so many issues now that are above and beyond it’s just typical suckage.  Just curious.  

Convective feedback suck issues.

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

High was forecast at 47 (lol), made it to 39

41 up here 

[T. August]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

High was forecast at 47 (lol), made it to 39

I know a lot of the time it doesn’t end up mattering, but it’s nice to see temps a good 4-5° cooler than the forecast.

[stormtracker]

5 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

41 up here 

I spoke too soon.  Went up to 40

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I know the 12k NAM is having convective feedback issues. 

 

7 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Convective feedback suck issues.

For anyone familiar with Pitch Meeting (Ryan George)...

[jmk]

Sun came out recently and were up to 43 after hovering in the high 30s most of the day. Forecast was 44. 

[yoda]

247pm afternoon AFD from LWX re the thing tomorrow 

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Have upgraded the remaining Winter Storm Watch to Winter Storm
Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories. Regardless of headline type,
a band of heavy snow is expected to move from west to east across
the CWA Sunday afternoon. Model soundings are impressive with this
frontogenesis band showing plentiful lift and moisture through the
DGZ. WPC snowband probability tool shows objects from the HREF of
0.05-0.10" per hour. At a 10:1 ratio, this would equate to about an
inch an hour. Given higher ratios in the band as the colder air
rushes in, would not be surprised with reports of 2" an hour in this
band. Thankfully this band will be rather transient and move
eastward quickly as colder Arctic Air rushes in from the NW.

Synoptically, an UL trough will move eastward into the Ohio Valley
tonight. A piece of energy will move ahead of this feature being one
of the parts of this storm. The region will reside in the left
exit/diffluent region of a ~100 kt H5 jet. This is favorable for
upward motion, as indicated by several methods including the long Q-
vectors. Good agreement in FGEN bands forming along the Arctic
boundary as well. These bands will yield the higher rates. Snow will
quickly end Sunday evening as the drier Arctic air moves in.

Upslope snow showers will persist through Sunday night into Monday
morning across the Alleghenies. High ratio fluff is expected,
with the Winter Storm Warning continuing through daybreak.
Given wind gusts of 35-45 mph Sunday night in the mountains,
significant blowing and drifting of snow is likely.

[Eskimo Joe]

Cold ground and remnant snow cover likely keeping temps on the cool side. Mesonet data shows ground temps haven't budged which is good.

[MillvilleWx]

Forecast high of 45 only made it to 41.
 

It’s currently 40/35 and cloudy. 

[wtkidz]

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

I mentioned this in the Banter thread, but this event kind of reminds me of Feb. 14, 2015.  Not exactly but similar in some ways.  We got a burst of snow squalls near evening for about an hour or so (got 2" where I'm at, though I know it was somewhat localized), which was followed by the Arctic blast on strong winds.  It actually turned quite brutal out that evening, and remained extremely cold the next week.  That's the last time I recall getting the level of cold that's projected for next week, on the heels of tomorrow's event.  And the system tomorrow looks to be better than the one in 2015 (more general snow overall).  I suspect we'll have a similar scenario with rapidly falling temperatures as the really cold air blasts in.  (ETA:  That 2015 blast also kicked off an amazing 4 week period of winter!).

[nj2va]

36/35 after an earlier high of 38.  1st time above freezing here in over 2 weeks.  

[H2O]

42.3/36 

Palm trees swaying gently, tiki torches lit and the smell of citronella wafting across the lanai.  Ah, the tropics in winter

[MillvilleWx]

Just now, H2O said:

42.3/36 

Palm trees swaying gently, tiki torches lit and the smell of citronella wafting across the lanai.  Ah, the tropics in winter

Be on the lookout for falling iguanas after your rain 

[WVsnowlover]

Currently in Winchester. Car temp reads a balmy 51° with sunny skies.

[aldie 22]

Pretty sunny in Aldie now temp is up to 44

[rjvanals]

NAMs still aren't overly enthused with the storm and have delayed the cold with DCA not getting to freezing until noon tomorrow

[CAPE]

3km NAM is still lovely for my yard. 18z even better. Wish it could be real lol.

[aldie 22]

This whole lead up to the storm has been odd...despite what any model shows it just feels like a 2-3" event. Hoping for some upside but it just has that feel to me thinking the globals have thrown us the old okie doak on qpf. I'm never mad about a fresh blanket of snow though

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z 3K NAM 

[vastateofmind]

8 minutes ago, H2O said:

42.3/36 

Palm trees swaying gently, tiki torches lit and the smell of citronella wafting across the lanai.  Ah, the tropics in winter

Honestly ready for some swaying palm trees...after putting up with this white concrete shit for a week plus here in the (typically) winter pampas of SoFfxCo.   

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z 3K NAM 

Can you at least wait for the run to finish? lol damn.

[mitchnick]

Forget the 2 Nam delinquents and go with the 15z Rap.

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Can you at least wait for the run to finish? lol damn.

It's virtually over by then.

[psuhoffman]

Nothing wrong with the placement of the qpf but it’s missing 40% of it. WTF. 

[EastCoast NPZ]

Well, the first prerequisite for a winter storm here has been met: the day-before torch.  50F here, blazing sun, and not a flake of snow left except piles and in some well-shaded areas.  Never fails.  

[nj2va]

Looking at the soundings product on Pivotal for the 3k, and it basically shows most start around 8-9:1 (10:1 in favored spots in N MD, 15:1 here in the mountains).  Soundings increase from there with 95 around 10:1, NW around 12-13:1, favored climo 15:1 and mountains around 20:1.

[stormtracker]

28 minutes ago, yoda said:

247pm afternoon AFD from LWX re the thing tomorrow 

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Have upgraded the remaining Winter Storm Watch to Winter Storm
Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories. Regardless of headline type,
a band of heavy snow is expected to move from west to east across
the CWA Sunday afternoon. Model soundings are impressive with this
frontogenesis band showing plentiful lift and moisture through the
DGZ. WPC snowband probability tool shows objects from the HREF of
0.05-0.10" per hour. At a 10:1 ratio, this would equate to about an
inch an hour. Given higher ratios in the band as the colder air
rushes in, would not be surprised with reports of 2" an hour in this
band. Thankfully this band will be rather transient and move
eastward quickly as colder Arctic Air rushes in from the NW.

Synoptically, an UL trough will move eastward into the Ohio Valley
tonight. A piece of energy will move ahead of this feature being one
of the parts of this storm. The region will reside in the left
exit/diffluent region of a ~100 kt H5 jet. This is favorable for
upward motion, as indicated by several methods including the long Q-
vectors. Good agreement in FGEN bands forming along the Arctic
boundary as well. These bands will yield the higher rates. Snow will
quickly end Sunday evening as the drier Arctic air moves in.

Upslope snow showers will persist through Sunday night into Monday
morning across the Alleghenies. High ratio fluff is expected,
with the Winter Storm Warning continuing through daybreak.
Given wind gusts of 35-45 mph Sunday night in the mountains,
significant blowing and drifting of snow is likely.

Lost me at "thankfully"

[CAPE]

18 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

It's virtually over by then.

Yeah my bad I was looking at the 6 hour p-type map.

Sorry @Weather Will

 

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Lost me at "thankfully"

Yeah wtf was that