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1/19 - The Roulette Wheel 29 Black Storm - OBS


DDweatherman
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Started looking like this yesterday and probably even more true with morning temps warmer than expected. For most of us outside far N/W zones, most of the snow is going to fall in a 4-5 hour period this afternoon and evening. That band this afternoon should really rip as it comes through. 

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Just now, WxUSAF said:

Started looking like this yesterday and probably even more true with morning temps warmer than expected. For most of us outside far N/W zones, most of the snow is going to fall in a 4-5 hour period this afternoon and evening. That band this afternoon should really rip as it comes through. 

My thoughts as well. Everyone is going to freak when nothing happens until like 2. But when it hits it's going to be fun. Temps crashing, snow ripping, wind picking up. Should be fun. It will probably sit around 40 degrees until start time. Probably rain a bit this morning. 2-3 is my feeling. 

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2 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

Loudoun county got cocky for alot of years but we're basically northern Prince William county now. Enjoy your 1" today :)

I still think we have a shot at 3” or a little more when the arctic front passes with heavy banding along that. 

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There hasn't been any real change over the last 4 model cycles wrt temps at onset of precip here per the GFS and EURO. 36-37, and 37 is the forecast high. NAM seems too cold.

An initial period of rain/mix has always been in the cards esp for I-95 and SE. My biggest concern was lack of precip, but that seems less of an issue on recent runs.

34 currently

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Just now, mitchnick said:

Is it just the cold air that's slower, or is everything including the development of the storm? Because if it's everything, it wouldn't hurt totals as much.

Cold air is slower, precip about the same. LWX says precip is faster, but I don’t see that yet. 

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3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Is it just the cold air that's slower, or is everything including the development of the storm? Because if it's everything, it wouldn't hurt totals as much.

Onset of precip is a bit delayed on latest runs. Just focusing on my area ofc, but the duration of non-snow ptype doesn't seem much different for here.

3" is probably boom here. 1-2 seems reasonable.

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3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Oh jeez

Panic thread still open?

I know right? This event hasn’t even started yet and we’re cliff diving. Yes we’re running a bit warm atm but the arctic front is coming and banding will develop along that front. It’ll be a beatdown and how much we get will be determined how long the banding lasts 

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