WxUSAF Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Started looking like this yesterday and probably even more true with morning temps warmer than expected. For most of us outside far N/W zones, most of the snow is going to fall in a 4-5 hour period this afternoon and evening. That band this afternoon should really rip as it comes through. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 15 minutes ago, dailylurker said: My gut says lowlands win this one today. Columbia to Annopoils will get a heavy wet band that surprises everyone lol. I think the gfs has the idea. LFG 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Just now, WxUSAF said: Started looking like this yesterday and probably even more true with morning temps warmer than expected. For most of us outside far N/W zones, most of the snow is going to fall in a 4-5 hour period this afternoon and evening. That band this afternoon should really rip as it comes through. My thoughts as well. Everyone is going to freak when nothing happens until like 2. But when it hits it's going to be fun. Temps crashing, snow ripping, wind picking up. Should be fun. It will probably sit around 40 degrees until start time. Probably rain a bit this morning. 2-3 is my feeling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Yup! Book it. Rain until 2 then we rip for a few hours while nw sees brighter sky to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 It would be hilarious if the RGEM had the right original idea 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 WB 6Z 3K NAM.... it never liked this storm.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 We knew last night we were in trouble ... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 4 minutes ago, Terpeast said: It would be hilarious if the RGEM had the right original idea Loudoun county got cocky for alot of years but we're basically northern Prince William county now. Enjoy your 1" today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 2 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: Loudoun county got cocky for alot of years but we're basically northern Prince William county now. Enjoy your 1" today I still think we have a shot at 3” or a little more when the arctic front passes with heavy banding along that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Latest RAP 11Z: lucky if most of us see 2 inches. Image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 I said this from the beginning. Models always brings in the cold air faster than how it actually happens. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 I smell a bust. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Is it just the cold air that's slower, or is everything including the development of the storm? Because if it's everything, it wouldn't hurt totals as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 There hasn't been any real change over the last 4 model cycles wrt temps at onset of precip here per the GFS and EURO. 36-37, and 37 is the forecast high. NAM seems too cold. An initial period of rain/mix has always been in the cards esp for I-95 and SE. My biggest concern was lack of precip, but that seems less of an issue on recent runs. 34 currently 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Waking up to a busted forecast is a right of passage around here ... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Just now, mitchnick said: Is it just the cold air that's slower, or is everything including the development of the storm? Because if it's everything, it wouldn't hurt totals as much. Cold air is slower, precip about the same. LWX says precip is faster, but I don’t see that yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: I smell a bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Oh jeez Panic thread still open? 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 WB 11Z HRRR compared to 6Z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Could be a salty sweet day for commanders fans lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Is it just the cold air that's slower, or is everything including the development of the storm? Because if it's everything, it wouldn't hurt totals as much. Onset of precip is a bit delayed on latest runs. Just focusing on my area ofc, but the duration of non-snow ptype doesn't seem much different for here. 3" is probably boom here. 1-2 seems reasonable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: Oh jeez Panic thread still open? I know right? This event hasn’t even started yet and we’re cliff diving. Yes we’re running a bit warm atm but the arctic front is coming and banding will develop along that front. It’ll be a beatdown and how much we get will be determined how long the banding lasts 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 At 3 pm on WB HRRR, it is just going below freezing in the far NW suburbs! Lot of white rain.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 9 minutes ago, Interstate said: I said this from the beginning. Models always brings in the cold air faster than how it actually happens. It will be interesting. It looks like the Reggie and GFS and Euro all give us the majority of our snow in a 3 hour ish period this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Just now, Weather Will said: At 3 pm on WB HRRR, it is just going below freezing in the far NW suburbs! Red flag there, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Just now, Weather Will said: At 3 pm on WB HRRR, it is just going below freezing in the far NW suburbs! What's euro's temps at that same time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Temp rose all night to a toasty 38. LWX still saying 3-5 in my area (Germantown) but I am expecting rain to snow with a max of 2" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 1 minute ago, Chris78 said: What's euro's temps at that same time? WB 6Z EURO temp at 3 pm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 16 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Latest RAP 11Z: lucky if most of us see 2 inches. Image Every time you post the rap there’s a giant ass share symbol in the image. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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