1/19 - The Roulette Wheel 29 Black Storm - OBS

[psuhoffman]

30 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Euro+GFS+3km NAM > Canadians

Anyway still about 80% snow cover here. Hoping for a few inches to freshen up the snow and fill in the bare spots before the Arctic onslaught.

The HERPDERPS was never as crazy out to lunch NW as the RGEM and GGEM.  ALso the canadiens were the first to see there was a storm coming at all...then yes they were way over amplified compared to all the others...but no more so than the others were under amplified until about 24 hours out.  So.... I dunno none of the guidance did amazing with this, but thats also par for these types of setups where its a relatively minor feature in the longwave flow creating the storm...basically just a little bit of spin in the flow traversing an arctic boundary creating cross boundary flow and it doesn't take much to squeeze out a 3-5" snow when you have this kind of arctic boundary hangin around...but models wont see this well at any range. 

[jayyy]

NOOOOO you want them to be conservative and then catch up as you are measuring 6" and saying WOW its ripping fatties

You took the words right out of my mouth. I feel like when we’re under a WSW, we either bust low or barely hit the lower range. When they go conservative, we get a pleasant surprise. Maybe those occurrences are just the ones that stick out in my mind but I’m still going with it!!

[AtlanticWx]

so excited to get a daytime snowstorm tomorrow. my sleep schedule has gotten so cooked by the late-night storms that peak at like 4 am. nice to see a snowstorm peaking at like 4 pm 

[psuhoffman]

8 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Image

well its a rap

[nj2va]

Steadier march down in temps now.  I sat between 32 and 31.8 for about 2-3 hours.  In the last 30 minutes, have dropped down to 30.5, and dropping.

[AtlanticWx]

wtf i didn't realize soundings looked like this

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This is really late, last 24 hours I've been on the road a lot.  But this would have been pretty much the same map I would have put out last night if I was able too.  Nothing has really changed.  The high or low end of these ranges will depend on banding which will be a nowcast thing.  The little bit of a gap between the 4-8" zones accounts for the little bit of a "jump" that will happen between the initial SW induced boundary wave and the coastal.  4-6" will be way more common in the 4-8" zone but I do think some isolated 8" totals will pop up somewhere in those 2 areas.  As the deform band with the coastal gets going it will cut off the moisture transport to the west and the precip with the initial wave will die.  This does create a bit of a gap, but I don't think it will be nearly as bad as some of the high resolution models were showing.  It's nice that the first threat of both high probability "windows" hit, makes it easier to track if the next few waves miss.  I don't think we are done yet though...as the pattern relaxes I bet we get another wave similar to this to hit.  And it still possible one of the waves this week trends north. 

I could bust low along 95, I do think banding sets up there, but looking at soundings the snow ratios might be really low.  There is a mid level layer that gets a little warm during the heaviest snow, not mix warm but warm enough to inhibit ratios a lot.  Also the VVs don't necessarily align with the DGZ until pretty late along 95.  But...if the ratios end up closer to 10-1 there they could get 4-5" right along 95 easily.  I almost upped that area into the 3-5 but decided to be conservative. 

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said:

wtf i didn't realize soundings looked like this

They don't all look that friendly though....

But if the 3k soundings are correct I will bust low along 95, and I won't be shocked if I do. I went low. 

 

[psuhoffman]

9 minutes ago, jayyy said:

You took the words right out of my mouth. I feel like when we’re under a WSW, we either bust low or barely hit the lower range. When they go conservative, we get a pleasant surprise. Maybe those occurrences are just the ones that stick out in my mind but I’m still going with it!!

Over the years I might have verified warning snowfall more times when I wasn't under a warning then when I was...

[IUsedToHateCold]

The others said it earlier: we're starting as rain in the lowlands and then finishing up with a strong backside once the cold air comes in. I don't see any other way for us to get the totals the models are spitting out. The air is already warming. 2-4 seems likely, if it overperforms then up to 6 isn't off the table. 

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z EURO

[RDM]

From the looks of radar, and the lack of returns, it's hard to imagine we're on the eve of a decent event (decent for around here given the past few years of nada).

[psuhoffman]

10 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 0Z EURO

I'm suing ECMWF for stealing my snow map

[psuhoffman]

8 minutes ago, RDM said:

From the looks of radar, and the lack of returns, it's hard to imagine we're on the eve of a decent event (decent for around here given the past few years of nada).

It's not supposed to look like much for another few hours at least...don't spook the usual suspects...we don't need those posts already

[wxmeddler]

0z Euro pretty much aligns with my thoughts perfectly. 18z AIFS nailed my thinking though.

[psuhoffman]

before we start the radar hallucinations...

1am Sim radar

4am sim radar

7am sim radar

10am sim radar

 

[snowdude]

32/30 Stafford, VA

GO COMMANDERS! 

Hoping we get at least 2-3” here! 

[MountainGeek]

This low level inversion is legit -- still hanging at 35/32 at 810ft, half a mile away 500' lower on the river is 32. On up the top ridge it's 38 at 1600ft. 

[pazzo83]

18 minutes ago, MountainGeek said:

This low level inversion is legit -- still hanging at 35/32 at 810ft, half a mile away 500' lower on the river is 32. On up the top ridge it's 38 at 1600ft. 

36 here, 33F about 3 blocks away (and ~150' lower)