1/19 - The Roulette Wheel 29 Black Storm - OBS

[pazzo83]

Just now, stormtracker said:

My team won and the models trending the right way.  I'm fucking pumped

We back.

[Warm Nose]

3 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Certainly odd that you’re 5 degrees warmer than lowland Howard county. Weather is weird

Yeah seems to be an elevation thing. I'm at 800ft and am decently warmer (+5 deg) than folks down at 550.

[RDM]

Now...   if Sterling would just expand the WSW a bit to the SE, at least to the fall line...  

[BlizzardNole]

Just NE of Germantown I've gone from 33 a couple hours ago to 36 (elev. around 550)

[PWC Split]

42F at 1k’ in Haymarket on Bull Run “mountain” and 33F at 445 feet in the lowlands of Haymarket.

[AtlanticWx]

hey yall, i've not been looking recently. how we looking for the storm and more specifically NW moco?

[jayyy]

Herpderps 

Obviously still anyone’s guess where these bands ultimately setup and our area’s climo comes into play.. but it’s certainly interesting to see 3-4 models tonight with a similar output (having the max near 95) Wonder if they’re onto something.

[DDweatherman]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

My team won and the models trending the right way.  I'm fucking pumped

If you over perform on this tomorrow im going to be mandatory thread starter or get 12 hours moderator privileges  I had your boys winning tonight too 

[nw baltimore wx]

Temps always go up just before a frontal passage. The fact that they are going up now is probably good. It might mean the front is close.

[CAPE]

30 here

[jayyy]

hey yall, i've not been looking recently. how we looking for the storm and more specifically NW moco?

3-6” is a reasonable forecast I’d say

[mappy]

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Herpderps 

Phew, purples. Panic over. 

[Mrs.J]

SW Frederick contribution sitting at 32. 

[wawarriors4]

Temp got down to 32, now up to 34.

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

Just now, BlizzardNole said:

This is looking real nice for N&W

That map is several hours old.

[Lucketts]

35/34

[adelphi_sky]

Up to 33 at my house.

[Fozz]

16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Herpderps 

The Canadian models were a lot of our least favorites for days with their super amped solutions that brought mainly rain to most of us, but now at the 11th hour they have Baltimore points north in the bullseye.

I have no idea whether to believe them but I will say there’s no better time than now to be in the bullseye.

[BlizzardNole]

3 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

That map is several hours old.

Oops you're right -- deleted

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

1 minute ago, BlizzardNole said:

Oops you're right -- deleted

It's still the most recent, just been a while since an update.

[Fozz]

26 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

Wow, that’s great. Hook me up. 

There’s no better time than now to be in the bullseye. I’m ready for it to snow!

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, Fozz said:

The Canadian models were a lot of our least favorites for days with their super amped solutions that brought mainly rain to most of us, but now at the 11th hour they have Baltimore points north in the bullseye.

I have no idea whether to believe them but I will say there’s no better time than now to be in the bullseye.

They suck and make adjustments towards the preponderance of guidance at the 11th hour. No credit given.

[Ji]

My team won and the models trending the right way.  I'm fucking pumped

Amazing night.
Who is this town ?

[stormtracker]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

Amazing night.
Who is this town ?

I don't even know who we are right now dude

[Chris78]

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

Amazing night.
Who is this town ?

Championship snow town

[Weather Will]

Image

[psuhoffman]

This is really late, last 24 hours I've been on the road a lot.  But this would have been pretty much the same map I would have put out last night if I was able too.  Nothing has really changed.  The high or low end of these ranges will depend on banding which will be a nowcast thing.  The little bit of a gap between the 4-8" zones accounts for the little bit of a "jump" that will happen between the initial SW induced boundary wave and the coastal.  4-6" will be way more common in the 4-8" zone but I do think some isolated 8" totals will pop up somewhere in those 2 areas.  As the deform band with the coastal gets going it will cut off the moisture transport to the west and the precip with the initial wave will die.  This does create a bit of a gap, but I don't think it will be nearly as bad as some of the high resolution models were showing.  It's nice that the first threat of both high probability "windows" hit, makes it easier to track if the next few waves miss.  I don't think we are done yet though...as the pattern relaxes I bet we get another wave similar to this to hit.  And it still possible one of the waves this week trends north. 

[psuhoffman]

25 minutes ago, RDM said:

Now...   if Sterling would just expand the WSW a bit to the SE, at least to the fall line...  

NOOOOO you want them to be conservative and then catch up as you are measuring 6" and saying WOW its ripping fatties

[nj2va]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This is really late, last 24 hours I've been on the road a lot.  But this would have been pretty much the same map I would have put out last night if I was able too.  Nothing has really changed.  The high or low end of these ranges will depend on banding which will be a nowcast thing.  The little bit of a gap between the 4-8" zones accounts for the little bit of a "jump" that will happen between the initial SW induced boundary wave and the coastal.  4-6" will be way more common in the 4-8" zone but I do think some isolated 8" totals will pop up somewhere in those 2 areas.  As the deform band with the coastal gets going it will cut off the moisture transport to the west and the precip with the initial wave will die.  This does create a bit of a gap, but I don't think it will be nearly as bad as some of the high resolution models were showing.  It's nice that the first threat of both high probability "windows" hit, makes it easier to track if the next few waves miss.  I don't think we are done yet though...as the pattern relaxes I bet we get another wave similar to this to hit.  And it still possible one of the waves this week trends north. 

That’s a great map.

[Kevin Reilly]

6 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Image

Guessing upslope lol