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1/19 - The Roulette Wheel 29 Black Storm - OBS


DDweatherman
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Euro and RGEM with the 95 band via the coastal. Gfs about 15-20 miles further west with the goods but still gives 95 corridor borderline warning snowfall

*May*have to raise that 2-4” forecast for areas just west of 95 if this keeps up

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4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Huh...now how does Ellicott city have lower elevation yet is cooler than where I am? (No panic just curious about the nuances of elevation in this state)

Elevation is not the sole determining factor of microclimate temp variations. Consider that Baltimore, MD is closer to the Chesapeake Bay which will always have some impact. Urban density also matters. 

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6 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

definitely some differences here even with minor changes in elevation.  32-33F down towards Mass Ave (Spring Valley).  37-39F up closer to Tenleytown / Ft Reno (highest point in DC).

 

6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Huh...now how does Ellicott city have lower elevation yet is cooler than where I am? (No panic just curious about the nuances of elevation in this state)

 

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Why is that, I wonder? You'd think it'd be the opposite.

This is likely due to a low level temperature inversion. You can see this on the mesonet website. There is a significant difference between Westminster and Clarksville.

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1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Why is that, I wonder? You'd think it'd be the opposite.

Tons of factors for temp variations. Of course we can broad brush temperature "zones" but so many factors can impact temps even down to a street-to-street level. 
Existing snowpack might be more plentiful at one location versus another, proximity to water matters, urban density matters, wind direction (even if light), heck...even the exact site of a thermometer matters (if the placement is "to code") 

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Huh...now how does Ellicott city have lower elevation yet is cooler than where I am? (No panic just curious about the nuances of elevation in this state)

A lot of factors go into localized temps. It’s currently colder in Ellicott city (31) than the NYC suburbs (36) Weird for sure but nonetheless…
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8 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

Most higher elevation weather stations around here are in the mid to upper 30's still and valleys are low 30's. This was expected. We should be 30-32 by 12z.

Yup models didn’t show the real cold air pushing in till after sunrise 

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