1/19 - The Roulette Wheel 29 Black Storm - OBS

[Yeoman]

.5 in in NW DC.. writing was on the wall mid morn with the temps and dryslot.. last year was better assuming nothing more this month

[Yeoman]

8 minutes ago, mikeg0305 said:

Hey experts. So in the end, which model did better and from what time frame? Just curious if anyone keeps track of the batting averages. I’m on the baseball analogies since the Ravens layed yet another egg in the playoffs. Enjoyed following the banter. Onto the next one.

MikeG

RGEM

[high risk]

27 minutes ago, mikeg0305 said:

Hey experts. So in the end, which model did better and from what time frame? Just curious if anyone keeps track of the batting averages. I’m on the baseball analogies since the Ravens layed yet another egg in the playoffs. Enjoyed following the banter. Onto the next one.

MikeG

 

 

FWIW, I found a case almost 3 years ago to the day in which we busted on a snowfall here locally as low-level arctic air was slower to arrive than progged.     The RGEM was the outlier among models right before the event, showing a slower push of the front, and it was right.     I don't want to make too much out of two cases in three years, but it's something I will file away in the back of my mind.

[rjvanals]

36 minutes ago, high risk said:

 

 

 

FWIW, I found a case almost 3 years ago to the day in which we busted on a snowfall here locally as low-level arctic air was slower to arrive than progged.     The RGEM was the outlier among models right before the event, showing a slower push of the front, and it was right.     I don't want to make too much out of two cases in three years, but it's something I will file away in the back of my mind.

I had that 1/20/22 non event in the back of my mind when I was worried about temps with this one. We'd just had our first big snow event in a while (similar to this year) and the storm was supposed to bring a heavy burst of snow just in time for the morning commute with cold air being modeled to arrive just in time for the heavy precip which would help cool the column. The night before everyone was a bit worried since we were running a few degrees above modeled temps but everyone said don't worry.

The cold air was indeed delayed giving only areas above ~1000 ft appreciable snow with the DC area having heavy rain despite most school systems being closed for the "snow" day. 

[jayyy]

5.75” was my total by storms end
Sitting at 19 currently

On to the next one..

[Fozz]

47 minutes ago, rjvanals said:

I had that 1/20/22 non event in the back of my mind when I was worried about temps with this one. We'd just had our first big snow event in a while (similar to this year) and the storm was supposed to bring a heavy burst of snow just in time for the morning commute with cold air being modeled to arrive just in time for the heavy precip which would help cool the column. The night before everyone was a bit worried since we were running a few degrees above modeled temps but everyone said don't worry.

The cold air was indeed delayed giving only areas above ~1000 ft appreciable snow with the DC area having heavy rain despite most school systems being closed for the "snow" day. 

I tried remembering this one, and now I think this may have been one of the big storms where I was in Canaan/Timberline.

[CAPE]

13 hours ago, vastateofmind said:

So, yeah, enjoy the tech discussion. How about some (what I'm sure are) gorgeous pics of your home draped in some fresh snow??   

Here ya go. Obligatory cabin in the snow pic.

[dailylurker]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Here ya go. Obligatory cabin in the snow pic.

Beautiful! We've had quite the January here in the lowlands and across the flatlands. We just need another couple minor events to reach climo. You might be just about climo there.

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, dailylurker said:

Beautiful! We've had quite the January here in the lowlands and across the flatlands. We just need another couple minor events to reach climo. You might be just about climo there.

I'm just over 11. Not sure what climo is anymore lol. Long term mean here is 18.5.

But yes, deep winter. Not seen this since the 2013-14 and 14-15 winters. Jan 22 was snowier with the 3 storms totaling almost 20" here, but wasn't quite this cold.

 

[aldie 22]

Before and after...about 2" after any sublimation plus an hour or so of just white rain. I enjoyed it because it was moderate to heavy snow for several hours and now it's cold so the snow won't go anywhere.  Excellent winter month out here.

[ravensrule]

2 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

Before and after...about 2" after any sublimation plus an hour or so of just white rain. I enjoyed it because it was moderate to heavy snow for several hours and now it's cold so the snow won't go anywhere.  Excellent winter month out here.

Can you please send whoever shovels your walk over to me please.

[aldie 22]

4 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

Can you please send whoever shovels your walk over to me please.

My wife and i went out about 6pm last night and knocked it out fast! We charge $25,000 an hour plus mileage and a per diem.

[clskinsfan]

My hood this morning. Have had some nice streamers this morning drop another quarter inch. Around 8 inches of snowpack in shaded areas. Beautiful winter morning here. And a really great January. 

[mitchnick]

15 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

Before and after...about 2" after any sublimation plus an hour or so of just white rain. I enjoyed it because it was moderate to heavy snow for several hours and now it's cold so the snow won't go anywhere.  Excellent winter month out here.

You missed a spot.

[Solution Man]

8 hours ago, high risk said:

 

 

 

FWIW, I found a case almost 3 years ago to the day in which we busted on a snowfall here locally as low-level arctic air was slower to arrive than progged.     The RGEM was the outlier among models right before the event, showing a slower push of the front, and it was right.     I don't want to make too much out of two cases in three years, but it's something I will file away in the back of my mind.

Thanks for the data points, we truly value the red taggers in here.

[nj2va]

Low of 3 degrees, currently light snow.

A bit over a foot of snow.

[Solution Man]

Light snow 17F

[diatae]

8 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Low of 3 degrees, currently light snow.

A bit over a foot of snow.

A stunning view! I love how the deck has just given up.

[87storms]

 

 

FWIW, I found a case almost 3 years ago to the day in which we busted on a snowfall here locally as low-level arctic air was slower to arrive than progged.     The RGEM was the outlier among models right before the event, showing a slower push of the front, and it was right.     I don't want to make too much out of two cases in three years, but it's something I will file away in the back of my mind.

Yea, in hindsight, it did dominate on the thermals, but it also showed a jackpot qpf along the fall line during the Sunday 0z run. Not sure if that’s actually what happened…seems like the qpf stripe was closer to Parr’s and the Catoctin’s, though up until 0z it was painting higher qpf there as well. Not sure why it changed it up near gametime, but it goes to show how important it is to understand each model’s bias.

[HighStakes]

Currently 17 degrees. 

[PWC Split]

Moderate snow and 17F

[Terpeast]

[midatlanticweather]

Two Snow Squall Warnings up!

 

[jmk]

Nice little snow shower came out of that squall. Dusted over a bit of the driveway again

[wxdude64]

3 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Two Snow Squall Warnings up!

 

That bottom one close enough to IAD it may affect ops for a short time if it comes in hot and heavy. 

[jonjon]

Ended up with a foot here (not including the inch or so after changeover Saturday Night/Early Sunday).  70 inches for the month.

Currently 1 degree and light snow

[clskinsfan]

10 minutes ago, jonjon said:

70 inches for the month.

[DDweatherman]

Anyone in the squalls north of Frederick this morning? Pretty good feed across Walkersville and the northern burbs.

[WxUSAF]

Which one of you weenies is the slantsticker in Norrisville, MD??  Been WAY higher than surrounding measurements each time this year.  

[mappy]

17 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Which one of you weenies is the slantsticker in Norrisville, MD??  Been WAY higher than surrounding measurements each time this year.  

I saw that this morning. No way they got 4