midatlanticweather Posted Monday at 01:41 AM Share Posted Monday at 01:41 AM 1 hour ago, Round Hill WX said: 3.25” final in Round Hill. Congrats to the Nams and the Euro on the qpf front. The GFS needs a recalibration. 13.25” on the season. 2.7 down the street here in Purcellvillle 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted Monday at 01:42 AM Share Posted Monday at 01:42 AM 17 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Looks like my forecast did alright for far NW burbs, busted pretty badly along i-95. Mby got close to low end of 3”, probably did reach that if I measured using a snowboard, but I just stuck a ruler on the sidewalk and again on my deck so I naturally got a more conservative number given all the compaction and melting. What went wrong? Simple. Cold air got delayed a few hours, while best frontgen banding was 30 miles NW of model outputs. Tough to get those mesoscale details right even 12-24 hours in advance, impossible beyond 24h. It didn’t impact places like Round Hill or Frederick much, but such a minor shift robbed us in the i-95 corridor. Unfortunate but it is what it is. Nrn folks, this one was yours. Enjoy! I know I did, too! I only got a little more than you. I think the real screwjob was the fall line. Your analysis makes sense, though...seems like the boundary was a little further nw and maybe why some of those heavier bands along 95 shifted more towards 70. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted Monday at 01:45 AM Share Posted Monday at 01:45 AM 1 hour ago, mattie g said: Not so much the thermals as the precip (at least for MBY). Both, but of course everything is interrelated. Getting chilly now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted Monday at 01:55 AM Share Posted Monday at 01:55 AM only about 1” or 1.5” in Owings Mills. Guess I’ll go for a drive tomorrow to northern Carroll to see some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted Monday at 01:55 AM Share Posted Monday at 01:55 AM Officially 1.5 inches this why I don’t care if I am under a WSW. I was supposed to get over 5 according to the warning. I basically got what I thought I would. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted Monday at 01:57 AM Share Posted Monday at 01:57 AM 31 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Looks like my forecast did alright for far NW burbs, busted pretty badly along i-95. Mby got close to low end of 3”, probably did reach that if I measured using a snowboard, but I just stuck a ruler on the sidewalk and again on my deck so I naturally got a more conservative number given all the compaction and melting. What went wrong? Simple. Cold air got delayed a few hours, while best frontgen banding was 30 miles NW of model outputs. Tough to get those mesoscale details right even 12-24 hours in advance, impossible beyond 24h. It didn’t impact places like Round Hill or Frederick much, but such a minor shift robbed us in the i-95 corridor. Unfortunate but it is what it is. Nrn folks, this one was yours. Enjoy! I know I did, too! Do you think one led to the other? In other words, did that delay of cold air directly cause the frontogenesis bands to develop well NW of where most models had them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted Monday at 01:59 AM Share Posted Monday at 01:59 AM 3 minutes ago, Interstate said: Officially 1.5 inches this why I don’t care if I am under a WSW. I was supposed to get over 5 according to the warning. I basically got what I thought I would. Yeah same, got exactly the same total. And ditto on the WSW. Doesn’t mean much if this is the end result. We definitely got shafted and once again fell short. Hopefully we truly score at some point this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted Monday at 02:02 AM Share Posted Monday at 02:02 AM 3 minutes ago, Fozz said: Do you think one led to the other? In other words, did that delay of cold air directly cause the frontogenesis bands to develop well NW of where most models had them? I’m certain, yes. If the cold air boundary was faster and further south, the fgen band would also have been south. DC would have gotten what it was forecast for, and Harrisburg would have gotten much less. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted Monday at 02:06 AM Share Posted Monday at 02:06 AM Probably 0.50-0.75 accumulation. Actually higher than what I thought it would be after first looking outside at 9 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted Monday at 02:10 AM Share Posted Monday at 02:10 AM The one outlier was right Heres something very hard to say around here- On Monday (afternoon ) highs 18-22 and turning COLDER . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted Monday at 02:11 AM Share Posted Monday at 02:11 AM Just now, WEATHER53 said: The one outlier was right Heres something very hard to say around here- On Monday (afternoon ) highs 18-22 and turning colder. I know something harder to say..."Snow in New Orleans!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxtrix Posted Monday at 02:20 AM Share Posted Monday at 02:20 AM ended up with 4.5". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Monday at 02:21 AM Share Posted Monday at 02:21 AM 6.5” total down to 19 now 24 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted Monday at 02:22 AM Author Share Posted Monday at 02:22 AM Sorry this one didn’t pan out as well for folks South and East of me. Thought I helped bring some juju for a nice event, but the last minute game time shift cost a lot of folks and models didn’t do well with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted Monday at 02:27 AM Share Posted Monday at 02:27 AM 3 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Sorry this one didn’t pan out as well for folks South and East of me. Thought I helped bring some juju for a nice event, but the last minute game time shift cost a lot of folks and models didn’t do well with it. I think you maintain your thread rights. This one wasn’t on you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted Monday at 02:29 AM Author Share Posted Monday at 02:29 AM 1 minute ago, T. August said: I think you maintain your thread rights. This one wasn’t on you. The dynamics and rates were definitely there. The damn cold being a little slow lesson prevailed for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LordBaltimore Posted Monday at 02:32 AM Share Posted Monday at 02:32 AM Feeling better and better about convincing my fiance to honeymoon in Massachusetts. Can't wait to escape this shallow-snow hellscape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDSnowyWxTracker Posted Monday at 02:37 AM Share Posted Monday at 02:37 AM I wanted to report earlier but didn't get a chance. I am just north of Frederick/south of Walkersville. It started out around 9AM(35.5degrees) as a fair amount of white rain, probably lost about close to a half in or more to that. Thought for sure it was going to dud. But kicked in turned into snow by about 11am(32.4degrees) with accumulation. Then went to alternating heavy bands until about 12-5. Ended up with about 4.2in. Definitely ended up with a few good bands over me. Here are some of the pics toward the end. 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted Monday at 02:38 AM Share Posted Monday at 02:38 AM 14 and dumping. 8.9” 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidjd1114 Posted Monday at 02:40 AM Share Posted Monday at 02:40 AM York earlier.. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Monday at 02:41 AM Share Posted Monday at 02:41 AM I'm salty. Can I unpin this yet? 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted Monday at 02:47 AM Share Posted Monday at 02:47 AM 8 minutes ago, nj2va said: 14 and dumping. 8.9” You bastard. Every time you post shit like this it makes me want to make a bad financial decision and plunk down on a house at the top of the mountain out there. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted Monday at 02:48 AM Share Posted Monday at 02:48 AM M3.0" storm total Reisterstown 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted Monday at 02:50 AM Share Posted Monday at 02:50 AM What a garbage weekend all around. Mark Andrews can walk home from Buffalo in the snow. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted Monday at 03:06 AM Share Posted Monday at 03:06 AM 18 minutes ago, mattie g said: You bastard. Every time you post shit like this it makes me want to make a bad financial decision and plunk down on a house at the top of the mountain out there. I swear I’m not from the deep creek business association. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted Monday at 03:07 AM Share Posted Monday at 03:07 AM Definitely fair to say anyone southeast of Fredrick County busted pretty badly even by the more conservative morning NWS predictions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted Monday at 03:08 AM Share Posted Monday at 03:08 AM 3” just se Frederick, . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted Monday at 03:12 AM Share Posted Monday at 03:12 AM Just one inch here in sparrows point MD... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted Monday at 03:21 AM Share Posted Monday at 03:21 AM 12 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Definitely fair to say anyone southeast of Fredrick County busted pretty badly even by the more conservative morning NWS predictions. Apparently that 2.0” report in Ashburn wasn’t actually from me, it was from a NWS employee. I just so happened to report that same exact amount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted Monday at 03:23 AM Share Posted Monday at 03:23 AM Its been a snowy January in western md. Skied early this morning before the crowds got crazy and got back home before the roads went to crap. Haven't seen roads this bad in a couple years up here. Not looking forward to the artic cold this week though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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