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1/19 - The Roulette Wheel 29 Black Storm - OBS


DDweatherman
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17 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Looks like my forecast did alright for far NW burbs, busted pretty badly along i-95.

Mby got close to low end of 3”, probably did reach that if I measured using a snowboard, but I just stuck a ruler on the sidewalk and again on my deck so I naturally got a more conservative number given all the compaction and melting.

What went wrong? Simple. Cold air got delayed a few hours, while best frontgen banding was 30 miles NW of model outputs. Tough to get those mesoscale details right even 12-24 hours in advance, impossible beyond 24h. It didn’t impact places like Round Hill or Frederick much, but such a minor shift robbed us in the i-95 corridor. Unfortunate but it is what it is.

Nrn folks, this one was yours. Enjoy! I know I did, too!

I only got a little more than you.  I think the real screwjob was the fall line.  Your analysis makes sense, though...seems like the boundary was a little further nw and maybe why some of those heavier bands along 95 shifted more towards 70.

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31 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Looks like my forecast did alright for far NW burbs, busted pretty badly along i-95.

Mby got close to low end of 3”, probably did reach that if I measured using a snowboard, but I just stuck a ruler on the sidewalk and again on my deck so I naturally got a more conservative number given all the compaction and melting.

What went wrong? Simple. Cold air got delayed a few hours, while best frontgen banding was 30 miles NW of model outputs. Tough to get those mesoscale details right even 12-24 hours in advance, impossible beyond 24h. It didn’t impact places like Round Hill or Frederick much, but such a minor shift robbed us in the i-95 corridor. Unfortunate but it is what it is.

Nrn folks, this one was yours. Enjoy! I know I did, too!

Do you think one led to the other?

In other words, did that delay of cold air directly cause the frontogenesis bands to develop well NW of where most models had them?

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3 minutes ago, Interstate said:

Officially 1.5 inches 

this why I don’t care if I am under a WSW. I was supposed to get over 5 according to the warning. I basically got what I thought I would. 

Yeah same, got exactly the same total. And ditto on the WSW. Doesn’t mean much if this is the end result. We definitely got shafted and once again fell short.

Hopefully we truly score at some point this season.

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3 minutes ago, Fozz said:

Do you think one led to the other?

In other words, did that delay of cold air directly cause the frontogenesis bands to develop well NW of where most models had them?

I’m certain, yes. If the cold air boundary was faster and further south, the fgen band would also have been south. DC would have gotten what it was forecast for, and Harrisburg would have gotten much less. 

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I wanted to report earlier but didn't get a chance. I am just north of Frederick/south of Walkersville. It started out around 9AM(35.5degrees) as a fair amount of white rain, probably lost about close to a half in or more to that.  Thought for sure it was going to dud. But kicked in turned into snow by about 11am(32.4degrees) with accumulation. Then went to alternating heavy bands until about 12-5.  Ended up with about 4.2in. Definitely ended up with a few good bands over me.  Here are some of the pics toward the end.

IMG_20250119_210330 (1).jpg

IMG_20250119_210330 (2).jpg

IMG_20250119_210330 (3).jpg

IMG_20250119_210330 (4).jpg

IMG_20250119_210330.jpg

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12 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

StormTotalSnow.jpg

image.png.4829de54d264dcdb078751d39df8025c.png

Definitely fair to say anyone southeast of Fredrick County busted pretty badly even by the more conservative morning NWS predictions. 

 

Apparently that 2.0” report in Ashburn wasn’t actually from me, it was from a NWS employee. I just so happened to report that same exact amount. 

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