Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,689
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Ptpageza
    Newest Member
    Ptpageza
    Joined

1/19 - The Roulette Wheel 29 Black Storm - OBS


DDweatherman
 Share

Recommended Posts

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

It got the structure of the storm it just shifted 30-50 miles north at game time and every model missed that even the rgem which was right then went south with everything else lol. So I dunno how to grade that. 

I might be low because I’m measuring 6” but some of the early stuff might have compacted and it’s windy up on this ridge so that makes it hard. 

Ya I measured 7”. This is the biggest snowfall for me in the past like 5 years. 

  • Like 1
  • clap 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

There are reports of 8-9” in some isolates spots in south central PA.  The 4-8” area ended up starting in extreme NW VA through northern MD border counties north into south central PA. 
 

Then the gradient south of that was severe. Those rgem runs we made fun of ended up pretty close actually unfortunately.  These kinds of game time NW shifts with these boundary waves make up a large % of our areas busts. This isn’t that rare unfortunately. I always fear a north shift with these type storms. 

  • Like 2
  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Right around 2 inches in Great Falls. Couldn’t get a good measurement because we went and spent the afternoon at Top Golf in Sterling. Awesome experience in the snow.
 

This was a great storm here. A bit less snow than projected but the rates this afternoon were incredible. Nice to have a fresh layer of white for the incoming arctic blast. 

  • 100% 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Ya I measured 7”. This is the biggest snowfall for me in the past like 5 years. 

I got 6.5" but measured on the sidewalk in 2 increments, 4.5 and 2. It's fluff so it'll be at 5" before morning if the winds don't blow it away. 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I got 6.5" but measured on the sidewalk in 2 increments, 4.5 and 2. It's fluff so it'll be at 5" before morning if the winds don't blow it away. 

Happy to finally win one for once. I had warnings for 6” last year in two events and didn’t get over 3” in either event in Westminster. 

  • Like 1
  • yes 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Honestly I was mostly joking. This was a ~50mi shift from it being right. Remarkable consistency. Will still tar its reputation on this forum I imagine. 

Did it (Euro AI) ever “adjust”? Was it better than conventional Euro, say, 4 days out? Serious questions, not snark. Just wondering where it’s most useful.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, uncletim said:

Did it (Euro AI) ever “adjust”? Was it better than conventional Euro, say, 4 days out? Serious questions, not snark. Just wondering where it’s most useful.

It started shifting the max qpf north some but not nearly enough but every model missed it. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looks like my forecast did alright for far NW burbs, busted pretty badly along i-95.

Mby got close to low end of 3”, probably did reach that if I measured using a snowboard, but I just stuck a ruler on the sidewalk and again on my deck so I naturally got a more conservative number given all the compaction and melting.

What went wrong? Simple. Cold air got delayed a few hours, while best frontgen banding was 30 miles NW of model outputs. Tough to get those mesoscale details right even 12-24 hours in advance, impossible beyond 24h. It didn’t impact places like Round Hill or Frederick much, but such a minor shift robbed us in the i-95 corridor. Unfortunate but it is what it is.

Nrn folks, this one was yours. Enjoy! I know I did, too!

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It started shifting the max qpf north some but not nearly enough but every model missed it. 

Thanks for the reply. Curious because it seems to me that weather modeling is one area where AI can be truly useful to society - possibly a major upgrade in modeling, which from my uneducated perspective seems to have stalled somewhat. But I also know we are only in the intitial stages of AI implementation.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...