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1/19 - The Roulette Wheel 29 Black Storm - OBS


DDweatherman
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33 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Just measured the same. lol. What a pile of shit.

So bad. Hard to complain about this winter so far, but unless we get hit with one of these storms this week, I’ll go into late January right around climo to this point. This “event” was awful. Our only good storm was kinda underwhelming in some aspects. The heaviest snow fell in the wee hours of the morning and it only totaled like 6-7ish inches between parts 1 and 2. Kinda disappointing given the hype and the talk about it being such a loaded pattern. Hopefully, we get slammed at some point.

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5 minutes ago, rjvanals said:

It was consistent in having the idea of a light to moderate storm from a ~week out? Not sure if any other had it 

Honestly I was mostly joking. This was a ~50mi shift from it being right. Remarkable consistency. Will still tar its reputation on this forum I imagine. 

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3 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

Really nice band moving through to finish this event off. High ratio stuff. Looks like 6 plus out there.

The bands were good to y’all out there today! :snowing:

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Took out the trash and while the driveway looked clear I just shoveled a ton of frozen slush. Super easy to clear but was a surprising amount. Gonna be nasty out there in the AM. 

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35 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

For now on I'm never tossing the HRRR, RGEM, NAM if they suddenly show some non storm run. Most likely it's the only model with the right idea lol

as always, whichever model goes sideways before the event starts showing a looming bust, just go with that one. Changes from storm to storm as to which will call the bust correctly, but one always does. 

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1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Looks like the drier models get the win with this one. I had 0.03" before it changed to frozen. Might end up with 0.15 total max.

The best banding just shifted NW which isn’t unusual with these type waves, unfortunately even at the last minute. We’ve had several busts just like this. But my area up into PA did get 4-8” the dryer models didn’t have that. No model for this right. One of the rgem runs as it started to correct but before it over corrected was probably the closest. 

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21/19

6” exactly. Still snowing lightly. Might be one more band to go. 
 

Im sorry this didn’t work out further south. I am grateful for events like this when my elevation and latitude help. Makes the commute worth it. And it is legit nice up here in summer when it’s the 80s with a breeze when it’s 94 in Baltimore lol. 

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48 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

This storm set back Euro AI acceptance years 

It got the structure of the storm it just shifted 30-50 miles north at game time and every model missed that even the rgem which was right then went south with everything else lol. So I dunno how to grade that. 

39 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

Really nice band moving through to finish this event off. High ratio stuff. Looks like 6 plus out there.

I might be low because I’m measuring 6” but some of the early stuff might have compacted and it’s windy up on this ridge so that makes it hard. 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

It got the structure of the storm it just shifted 30-50 miles north at game time and every model missed that even the rgem which was right then went south with everything else lol. So I dunno how to grade that. 

I might be low because I’m measuring 6” but some of the early stuff might have compacted and it’s windy up on this ridge so that makes it hard. 

Same here I think. 6.25” at the moment. 

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