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1/19 - The Roulette Wheel 29 Black Storm - OBS


DDweatherman
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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The band up here doesn’t shock me.  It’s where everyone had the max snow. But as of yet I don’t see much where the h85 fgen banding was supposed to be along 95 or east of there depending on the run. That’s just MIA so far. 

Dang yo...I haven't been able to win with either event so far! Fringed south on 1/6 (though still a decent hit), now possible fringed n & w! Is this just luck or has something changed?

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didn't see this posted so what the heck...

 

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
112 PM EST Sun Jan 19 2025

DCZ001-MDZ008-011-013-014-504-506-508-VAZ025-026-029-038>040-051-
053-054-501-502-504-506-508-526-527-192300-
District of Columbia-Cecil-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-
Anne Arundel-Central and Southeast Montgomery-
Central and Southeast Howard-Southeast Harford-Augusta-Rockingham-
Page-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Culpeper-Fairfax-
Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Northern Fauquier-
Southern Fauquier-Eastern Highland-Eastern Loudoun-
Central Virginia Blue Ridge-Northwest Prince William-
Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-
Including the cities of Washington, Elkton, Baltimore, Bowie,
Suitland-Silver Hill, Clinton, College Park, Greenbelt, Laurel,
Camp Springs, Glen Burnie, Annapolis, Severn, South Gate,
Severna Park, Arnold, Odenton, Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg,
Silver Spring, Columbia, Ellicott City, Aberdeen, Staunton,
Waynesboro, Stuarts Draft, Harrisonburg, Luray, Shenandoah,
Stanley, Stanardsville, Madison, Culpeper, Reston, Herndon,
Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia, Arlington,
Alexandria, Falls Church, Warrenton, Turnbull, Monterey,
Leesburg, Ashburn, Sterling, Wintergreen, Haymarket, Dale City,
Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, and Montclair
112 PM EST Sun Jan 19 2025

...PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW THIS AFTERNOON...

A mix of light rain, sleet, and snow will transition to a period
of moderate to heavy snow this afternoon from west to east through
3 PM. Snowfall rates of around or a little over one inch per hour
are possible during the mid afternoon hours, along with reductions
in visibility to one-half mile or less and temperatures falling
below freezing. Snow will wind down from west to east between 5
and 8 PM, but temperatures will continue to fall through the 20s.

A quick accumulation of snow is expected this afternoon, which
will impact travel. After the snow, any lingering moisture will
freeze given the falling temperatures.
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7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I said 3-5” for MBY and 2-4” for DC. I think the bottom of those ranges may still be just reachable. But we need ~4 hours of ripping fatties probably to make that. 

I think we can still manage 2-3 inches or so if it comes through and pummels for a bit. But between temps and just duration, we have some things really working against us now.

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1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Dang yo...I haven't been able to win with either event so far! Fringed south (though still a decent hit), now possible fringed n & w! Is this just luck or has something changed?

What do you mean has something changed? Every storm has winners and losers for the most part. Sometimes we just get "missed" relative to other areas. Just how the chips fall. 

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1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Dang yo...I haven't been able to win with either event so far! Fringed south (though still a decent hit), now possible fringed n & w! Is this just luck or has something changed?

You’ve been stuck between the southern sliders and the storms where the NW area gets hit. I think it’s just been an incredible run of bad luck. There isn’t any reason I can see. Geography hadn’t changed. Over the long run it should even out. Eventually you’ll get some storms where you jack and dc only gets 3” and it evens out. 

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Just now, Kmlwx said:

What do you mean has something changed? Every storm has winners and losers for the most part. Sometimes we just get "missed" relative to other areas. Just how the chips fall. 

Yeah but it's been a long line of misses for my area specifically, though. Like I can't remember the last one where I wasn't on an edge or squeezed out from banding. The misses of central MD north (until today for north of me). We're talking the last 9 years here.

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Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah but it's been a long line of misses for my area specifically, though. Like I can't remember the last one where I wasn't on an edge or squeezed out from banding. The misses of central MD north (until today for north of me). We're talking the last 9 years here.

We'll probably get told to move to banter - but again - it's often "just how the chips fall"

I will say - you have to consider that you live in an urban corridor. I won't have the climate change discussion here - but there's also the warming. Some of your misses will just be that it missed a lot of us and you were included. Some of the misses will be because you were just a little too warm (being in the urban corridor and/or closer to the bay), some will be because the precip slid to the south (other people will get screwed in this too). 

You have to keep in mind and remember that while yes - maybe your backyard has done poorly - the entire region as a whole has been in a multi-year snow slump for quite a while. Everything feels worse when it's your backyard. It's not the weather targeting your street address or even neighborhood though. I think a lot of just in our heads - obviously we care more about our backyards than any other area - so the "misses" feel personal sometimes - they aren't. 

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