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1/19 - The Roulette Wheel 29 Black Storm - OBS


DDweatherman
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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

It's still too early to know much... because there isn't consistent heavy enough precip over the DC metro area yet.  The initial banding went to the NW, which was predicted by the guidance BTW.  Once that banding developing to the west moves into the area if the boundary layer does not cool and its still raining or a "white rain" situation, then it is time to start to revise expectations significantly.  But right now not much was supposed to be happening...the spotty precip around the area now wouldnt be doing anything anyways...we need consistent heavy precip to cool the lower levels.  We haven't wasted any of the QPF that was supposed to be accumulating snow yet.  

This thing does pack a punch if what is happening at my sister's house is any indication. Her latitude is basically a straight line to culpepper so im holding on tight until that can get here 

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6 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

The precip just to the southwest of DC is what I've got my eye on.

That is the banding associated with the h85 fgen that is about to slide across our area from SW to NE.  When that arrives is when things should start to change around the DC metro from 95 NW.  

 

For the northern MD crew, unlike the last event when the H85 and H7 forcing was way out of alignment and created the huge screw zone for us...this time it looks like they are going to line up for a time this afternoon from about 1-4pm where we will be on the NW side of the H85 forcing as the H7fgen slides across northern MD and southern PA.  That is out window to see some really heavy snow.  

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

That is the banding associated with the h85 fgen that is about to slide across our area from SW to NE.  When that arrives is when things should start to change around the DC metro from 95 NW.  

 

For the northern MD crew, unlike the last event when the H85 and H7 forcing was way out of alignment and created the huge screw zone for us...this time it looks like they are going to line up for a time this afternoon from about 1-4pm where we will be on the NW side of the H85 forcing as the H7fgen slides across northern MD and southern PA.  That is out window to see some really heavy snow.  

Already see where the h7 is going to overlap. Where it sits out on the W/NW edge in Garret co and SW PA right now is producing some heavy snow already. Those spots have some 1-2”/hr rates going judging by cams and obs.

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1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

Already see where the h7 is going to overlap. Where it sits out on the W/NW edge in Garret co and SW PA right now is producing some heavy snow already. Those spots have some 1-2”/hr rates going judging by cams and obs.

Last time the H7fgen shot up into western PA then got crushed by the flow as it tried to continue NE.  This time its sliding ESE with the front and will intersect the h85 forcing along northern MD and southern PA.  

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Expecting places west of 95 to flip to snow around 1-130 pm and Baltimore around 2pm as consistent heavier returns begin to impact that area.

Locations near 95 were NOT supposed to get much in the way of QPF from the initial push of moisture to the NW. Models did a good job depicting this going in. Models also showed the storm dumping majority of QPF near the fall line in the mid to late afternoon. Especially for the Baltimore area and points NE. Still on schedule peeps.

Stay cool.

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8 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Radar to the west and southwest coupled with looking at mesoanalysis says this should be a fun afternoon. 

We are also in much better shape WRT ratios this time.  I can tell the lift is aligned with the DGZ better because even right now as I am in a lull between that initial band that shot out ahead along the boundary and the one coming in from the SW associated with the mid level forcing... its still big nice sized flakes.  Last time we had those stupid needles that don't pile up at all.  

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

We are also in much better shape WRT ratios this time.  I can tell the lift is aligned with the DGZ better because even right now as I am in a lull between that initial band that shot out ahead along the boundary and the one coming in from the SW associated with the mid level forcing... its still big nice sized flakes.  Last time we had those stupid needles that don't pile up at all.  

Yep was looking to avoid the poor snow growth. From the start we had good structures. Our areas could maximize 15-1’s in the good stuff this afternoon as Millville said yesterday. 

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