aldie 22 Posted Sunday at 04:51 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:51 PM 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: It's still too early to know much... because there isn't consistent heavy enough precip over the DC metro area yet. The initial banding went to the NW, which was predicted by the guidance BTW. Once that banding developing to the west moves into the area if the boundary layer does not cool and its still raining or a "white rain" situation, then it is time to start to revise expectations significantly. But right now not much was supposed to be happening...the spotty precip around the area now wouldnt be doing anything anyways...we need consistent heavy precip to cool the lower levels. We haven't wasted any of the QPF that was supposed to be accumulating snow yet. This thing does pack a punch if what is happening at my sister's house is any indication. Her latitude is basically a straight line to culpepper so im holding on tight until that can get here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted Sunday at 04:52 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 04:52 PM Nearing an inch on the patio board. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted Sunday at 04:53 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:53 PM Anything frozen near Manassas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted Sunday at 04:53 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:53 PM Heavy rain, almost dark 36F. Spell check please 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted Sunday at 04:54 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:54 PM The precip just to the southwest of DC is what I've got my eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Sunday at 04:57 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:57 PM About an inch so far on top of the old snow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted Sunday at 04:58 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:58 PM 6 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Now it isn't even raining. Just nothing at the moment. It's picking back up in Reisterstown. Should be your way soon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted Sunday at 04:58 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:58 PM 9 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: Curious is the cold coming in from nw to se or straight west to east? "Colder temps/bands of heavier precip are expected to press E/SE through the day, eventually reaching the metros by 2-3PM." 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted Sunday at 04:59 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:59 PM 5 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Anything frozen near Manassas? Nothing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted Sunday at 04:59 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:59 PM Temp is finally dropping with the mix now. 36.6° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted Sunday at 04:59 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:59 PM 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: About an inch so far on top of the old snow. Accumulate new snow, but keep the old. One is pretty and the other is mold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted Sunday at 05:00 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 05:00 PM Radar to the west and southwest coupled with looking at mesoanalysis says this should be a fun afternoon. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted Sunday at 05:02 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:02 PM My rain Guage is starting to accumulate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EB89 Posted Sunday at 05:02 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:02 PM Definitely in a lull Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted Sunday at 05:02 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:02 PM 1 minute ago, Solution Man said: Nothing RA/SN mix. Just started. 35. More snow than rain as each minute ticks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted Sunday at 05:03 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:03 PM 2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Radar to the west and southwest coupled with looking at mesoanalysis says this should be a fun afternoon. If I was at Liberty rather than home I’d be pretty excited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Sunday at 05:03 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:03 PM 6 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: The precip just to the southwest of DC is what I've got my eye on. That is the banding associated with the h85 fgen that is about to slide across our area from SW to NE. When that arrives is when things should start to change around the DC metro from 95 NW. For the northern MD crew, unlike the last event when the H85 and H7 forcing was way out of alignment and created the huge screw zone for us...this time it looks like they are going to line up for a time this afternoon from about 1-4pm where we will be on the NW side of the H85 forcing as the H7fgen slides across northern MD and southern PA. That is out window to see some really heavy snow. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted Sunday at 05:03 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:03 PM Yellows on my door step. Moment of truth. If I see flakes mixing in at minimum, then its game on for the NW suburbs 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted Sunday at 05:05 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 05:05 PM Just now, psuhoffman said: That is the banding associated with the h85 fgen that is about to slide across our area from SW to NE. When that arrives is when things should start to change around the DC metro from 95 NW. For the northern MD crew, unlike the last event when the H85 and H7 forcing was way out of alignment and created the huge screw zone for us...this time it looks like they are going to line up for a time this afternoon from about 1-4pm where we will be on the NW side of the H85 forcing as the H7fgen slides across northern MD and southern PA. That is out window to see some really heavy snow. Already see where the h7 is going to overlap. Where it sits out on the W/NW edge in Garret co and SW PA right now is producing some heavy snow already. Those spots have some 1-2”/hr rates going judging by cams and obs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted Sunday at 05:06 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:06 PM 36/33; a few snowflakes mixing in with the rain. Total rain is .03" so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted Sunday at 05:06 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:06 PM 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Yellows on my door step. Moment of truth. If I see flakes mixing in at minimum, then its game on for the NW suburbs Answer the door. Hope it brought pizza..and snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Sunday at 05:07 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:07 PM 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: Already see where the h7 is going to overlap. Where it sits out on the W/NW edge in Garret co and SW PA right now is producing some heavy snow already. Those spots have some 1-2”/hr rates going judging by cams and obs. Last time the H7fgen shot up into western PA then got crushed by the flow as it tried to continue NE. This time its sliding ESE with the front and will intersect the h85 forcing along northern MD and southern PA. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted Sunday at 05:08 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:08 PM Expecting places west of 95 to flip to snow around 1-130 pm and Baltimore around 2pm as consistent heavier returns begin to impact that area. Locations near 95 were NOT supposed to get much in the way of QPF from the initial push of moisture to the NW. Models did a good job depicting this going in. Models also showed the storm dumping majority of QPF near the fall line in the mid to late afternoon. Especially for the Baltimore area and points NE. Still on schedule peeps. Stay cool. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Sunday at 05:10 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:10 PM 8 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Radar to the west and southwest coupled with looking at mesoanalysis says this should be a fun afternoon. We are also in much better shape WRT ratios this time. I can tell the lift is aligned with the DGZ better because even right now as I am in a lull between that initial band that shot out ahead along the boundary and the one coming in from the SW associated with the mid level forcing... its still big nice sized flakes. Last time we had those stupid needles that don't pile up at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted Sunday at 05:10 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:10 PM Started out as rain, and just when I was going to call TOD on this for folks east of 15, I saw a flake. Will wait another 15 min or so 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted Sunday at 05:11 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:11 PM 7 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Yellows on my door step. Moment of truth. If I see flakes mixing in at minimum, then its game on for the NW suburbs Was all rain here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted Sunday at 05:11 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 05:11 PM Just now, psuhoffman said: We are also in much better shape WRT ratios this time. I can tell the lift is aligned with the DGZ better because even right now as I am in a lull between that initial band that shot out ahead along the boundary and the one coming in from the SW associated with the mid level forcing... its still big nice sized flakes. Last time we had those stupid needles that don't pile up at all. Yep was looking to avoid the poor snow growth. From the start we had good structures. Our areas could maximize 15-1’s in the good stuff this afternoon as Millville said yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted Sunday at 05:12 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:12 PM First flakes mixing in here in Clarksburg. Temp down to 33ºF. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Sunday at 05:12 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:12 PM 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: Started out as rain, and just when I was going to call TOD on this for folks east of 15, I saw a flake. Will wait another 15 min or so We're counting on you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted Sunday at 05:12 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:12 PM Just now, das said: First flakes mixing in here in Clarksburg. Temp down to 33ºF. Outstanding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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