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1/19 - The Roulette Wheel 29 Black Storm - OBS


DDweatherman
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1 hour ago, clskinsfan said:

This hangover is horrific. But so worth it. Snow 32 degrees NW of Winchester.

I feel your pain. I was so pumped I couldn't sleep. Got maybe two hours and now at my sons wrestling tournament all day. This smile hasn't come off my face!

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Just now, T. August said:

I mean plus that’s snow depth change lmfao

Anytime its a marginal event those maps are awful because they assume no snow can accumulate at 33 degrees and frankly it seems it doesn't account for much at all at 32 either.  And it applies a very low ratio for snow at 30-31 when in reality ratios are more determined by mid level temps and lift aligning with the DGZ than surface temps.  Add in the low resolution...

In short those maps are just awful.  

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It's still too early to know much... because there isn't consistent heavy enough precip over the DC metro area yet.  The initial banding went to the NW, which was predicted by the guidance BTW.  Once that banding developing to the west moves into the area if the boundary layer does not cool and its still raining or a "white rain" situation, then it is time to start to revise expectations significantly.  But right now not much was supposed to be happening...the spotty precip around the area now wouldnt be doing anything anyways...we need consistent heavy precip to cool the lower levels.  We haven't wasted any of the QPF that was supposed to be accumulating snow yet.  

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

It's still too early to know much... because there isn't consistent heavy enough precip over the DC metro area yet.  The initial banding went to the NW, which was predicted by the guidance BTW.  Once that banding developing to the west moves into the area if the boundary layer does not cool and its still raining or a "white rain" situation, then it is time to start to revise expectations significantly.  But right now not much was supposed to be happening...the spotty precip around the area now wouldnt be doing anything anyways...we need consistent heavy precip to cool the lower levels.  We haven't wasted any of the QPF that was supposed to be accumulating snow yet.  

Gonna be a crush job for a couple hours this afternoon.  2-4" still looks good for the fall line north and west, imo...in that order of depth.

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