1/19 - The Roulette Wheel 29 Black Storm - OBS

[Fozz]

The guidance shows very little accumulation before 1pm (under an inch) and the vast majority of the good stuff afterwards.

[Wxtrix]

light snow since around 8 am. not heavy enough to stick anywhere except car tops and roofs. 33/32.

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

2 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Rain/mix to snow with most of it falling in a 4-5 hour period when we have the best lift over the area has been the forecast all along. Nothings really changed for dc / Baltimore and points NNW at this point.

[Miss Pixee]

Temps dropping rapidly, now 33 down from 37.

33/33DP

[DarkSharkWX]

new sterling AFD:
 

As of 16Z/11AM EST, precipitation continued to expand across 
the Mid-Atlantic. A tight gradient in air temps had developed
from roughly Norrisville MD southwest to Wintergreen VA. NW of
this line, temps were roughly 31-33F with mainly snow (light
accums observed); SE of this line was in the mid to upper 30s 
with a mix of rain, sleet, and snow (little to no accums yet). 
Over the Appalachians, bands of moderate to heavy snow had 
developed dropping visibility to less than half a mile; temps 
over the higher terrain in these areas were in the 20s. Freezing
levels were continuing to drop per recent ACARS as well as 
dual-pol data from KLWX. KPBZ/KFCX radars shows moderate to 
heavy snow banding pivoting E/SE toward eastern WV/western MD.

Colder temps/bands of heavier precip are expected to press E/SE
through the day, eventually reaching the metros by 2-3PM.

[WVclimo]

3 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

FWIW that run of the HRRR had my yard reaching freezing after 3:00 p.m.  it hit 32 here a few minutes ago

[Eskimo Joe]

10 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Flipped to snow/white rain about 10:50 am here in Monkton. Took an hour to move from drizzle/rain to snow. Now to see when it gets cold enough to accumulate. 

We down to 35 degrees and it's starting to get a slush coating on cars and grass. 

[WxMan1]

36/33 with rain and some mangled snowflakes mixed in. I know we were given the Canadian runs some crap (including the high res), But it had the right idea with rain or a mix for a while to start here in the immediate DC metro. My bar is 2". If we can get that, terrific. Wouldn't be surprised for 1-1.5" though. 

[EB89]

Cul-de-sac caving

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said:

new sterling AFD:
 

As of 16Z/11AM EST, precipitation continued to expand across 
the Mid-Atlantic. A tight gradient in air temps had developed
from roughly Norrisville MD southwest to Wintergreen VA. NW of
this line, temps were roughly 31-33F with mainly snow (light
accums observed); SE of this line was in the mid to upper 30s 
with a mix of rain, sleet, and snow (little to no accums yet). 
Over the Appalachians, bands of moderate to heavy snow had 
developed dropping visibility to less than half a mile; temps 
over the higher terrain in these areas were in the 20s. Freezing
levels were continuing to drop per recent ACARS as well as 
dual-pol data from KLWX. KPBZ/KFCX radars shows moderate to 
heavy snow banding pivoting E/SE toward eastern WV/western MD.

Colder temps/bands of heavier precip are expected to press E/SE
through the day, eventually reaching the metros by 2-3PM.

Where did you get this? Last afd was 9:21 am per the usual link

[dailylurker]

Big dry slot incoming?

[Chris78]

Temp dropped to 32 with moderate to occasionally S+.

Starting to stick to everything except pavement.

The temps the last 2 days definitely hurt in regards to quick accumulations.

[DarkSharkWX]

Just now, Terpeast said:

Where did you get this? Last afd was 9:21 am per the usual link

https://x.com/iembot_lwx/status/1881012605625553237

[das]

20 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said:

you didnt get all snow earlier? im 5-10 miles south of you and i was all snow for a bit, although its very light drizzle now flakes come back immediately once theres some precip heading in

Nope.  Working here at the house (PTT for the loss?  Win?) with windows on three sides.  Not one flake.

[TSSN+]

Parking lot caving, 32 with heavy snow. Grass covered. 

[Ravens94]

Dumping snow in bel air

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Parking lot caving, 32 with heavy snow. Grass covered. 

Yep. Once we get a drop of another degree or 2, it'll really start to pile up.

[Solution Man]

11 minutes ago, Warm Nose said:

Thanks goodness it's not wasted ...

Ha

[jayyy]

Looking at guidance when the storm is developing in front of us? I’m good. I’ll give my left testy if it only snows one inch here in union bridge and in the lower Hudson valley like that shows.

[Warm Nose]

With surface temps still above 32, if the rates lessen up it's all melting. Pavement was caving and then rates slacked up and the pavement won. Same for other surfaces as well.

Any accums will be rate-dependent today.

[mappy]

4 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Temp dropped to 32 with moderate to occasionally S+.

Starting to stick to everything except pavement.

The temps the last 2 days definitely hurt in regards to quick accumulations.

Sticking to everything but pavement here too

[jayyy]

33 moderate snow, nice sized flakes
surfaces caving (not roads yet)

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, jayyy said:

33 moderate snow, nice sized flakes
All surfaces caving

Reassuring. Probably means we're about an hour off for the closer in NW suburbs.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Temp dropping, down to 35.  Haven’t wasted a lotta QPF. Let’s see what we can do. 

[ThePhotoGuy]

36.1 Degrees

Light rain/snow mix. 

[nw baltimore wx]

The roads may be a problem later. Rain and snow melt washing away salt and then a quick drop to below freezing could make for an icy mess around sunset.

[North Balti Zen]

Yep, there's some really nice rates. That's snow.

[Eskimo Joe]

If the SPC mesoanalysis is to be believed, there was a piece of warm air advection around 925 mb that seemed to have kept the boundary layer just above freezing. That appears to be shunting east to Delmarva now and there's even a bit of frontogenesis starting up now. Hopefully that will help mix this bit of warm air at the surface out and we can start seeing some real snow falling shortly. 

[paxpatriot]

10 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

FWIW that run of the HRRR had my yard reaching freezing after 3:00 p.m.  it hit 32 here a few minutes ago

I can confirm that the HRRR doesn’t have a clue on temps. Same up here as well. 

[Mrs.J]

29 minutes ago, EB89 said:

Sidewalks are getting that slushy look. At the 15/26 interchange in Frederick. 

I am just off the traffic circle on Ballanger Creek Pike and Elmer Derr Rd. Snow has really tapered off. Just wet surfaces here. Getting slight up ticks in my rain gauge showing .08 up from .06. Sitting at 33.