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1/19 - The Roulette Wheel 29 Black Storm - OBS


DDweatherman
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5 minutes ago, mikeg0305 said:


I’m just up the road in Parkton, near the dam, and it’s been snowing here since it started an hour or so ago. Not sticking yet but nice fatties coming down. Elevation is 770ft, fwiw.

Yeah, just drove over to graul’s in Hereford to hit the pharmacy by there and it is 35 and more snow than rain. That’s about four miles west of me - so I guess I need to few more degrees to drop off at my place and at least can start the white rain process.

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I just took a trip to the store from Western Loudoun up and over Blue Ridge mountain to Berryville and then back about 30 minutes later.

Surface temps here were around 36 when I left with very light drizzle/mangled snow. At the top of Clarke's Gap at 31 deg the mangled frizzle turned into actual SN. Back down on the other side the surface is sitting just above 32 with more light SnowTV/White rain but nothing is sticking anywhere.

It was that way until I got back to the top of the mountain where it was 31 and I started to see some stickage. Back down on the Eastern foothills of the BR it's 34 and the rate has increased somewhat to where I'm getting minor accumulation on concrete and grass. It's all SN here at this point though I am at 800' and right on the edge it seems.

Bottom line - this batch is pretty to look at but not going to really do anything for accums so don't expect much at this stage. If temps dip a few degrees and rates pick up then it could be another story.

 

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3 minutes ago, 87storms said:

Think ppl will be happy with this storm in a couple hrs. Radar looks outstanding. Cold incoming, not retreating. Too bad it’s such a quick hitter.

I’m still at 37 but see lots of 34s just to the NW of me

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All those worried about rising temps should know this happens all the time here.

"A "temperature spike" just before a cold front occurs because the warm air mass ahead of the front is pushed upwards and compressed slightly as the colder air mass approaches, causing a temporary rise in temperature, often referred to as a "thermal ridge" by meteorologists; essentially, the air warms slightly due to compression as the cold front moves in."

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2 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

All those worried about rising temps should know this happens all the time here.

"A "temperature spike" just before a cold front occurs because the warm air mass ahead of the front is pushed upwards and compressed slightly as the colder air mass approaches, causing a temporary rise in temperature, often referred to as a "thermal ridge" by meteorologists; essentially, the air warms slightly due to compression as the cold front moves in."

 

These are a lot of big fancy words when all you needed to say was "shit be warm, it ain't snowing, RGEM was right"

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1 minute ago, dailylurker said:

Thankfully heavy rates have moved in. Heavier rain and up another degree to 40 lol. We do need the rain. It's looking super dry after this storm.

Don't worry, it's all going to plan.  All along, it was modeled that we'd waste half of the .3" qpf we get out of this storm on rain and white rain.

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The NWS forecast has called for rain / snow mix prior to going all snow in the afternoon for days now in the lowlands because that’s exactly what most models showed going in. Nothing has really changed at this juncture except maybe for 50/66 south. The fact that it’s 10am and many places to the west are changing over or all snow is a good sign. Radar looks exactly like we’d expect - maybe a tad ahead of schedule with precip blossoming. Not sure why there’s so much freaking out going on.

Anyway…

33F mod snow, fatty flakes as the transition occurs

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