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1/19 - The Roulette Wheel 29 Black Storm - OBS


DDweatherman
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Just now, rjvanals said:

Snowquester we were under a warning and hadn’t had a warning level event in a while. This time we’re in a advisory w multiple snow events the past few weeks 

No yeah this time it's we've had a good winter.
But marginal temps... relying on heavy rates....
Kinda seem familiar?

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Wait until heavy precip arrives to panic. If in a couple Hours it’s pouring rain and still 36 degrees then it’s time to panic. 

This. My window for heavy snow is 1-4 pm. If its 36 and raining at 1 pm, I’m calling bust on my own forecast

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2 minutes ago, rjvanals said:

Snowquester we were under a warning and hadn’t had a warning level event in a while. This time we’re in a advisory w multiple snow events the past few weeks 

Also snowquester heavy rates were missing. Rates are coming. Just got to get the temp to drop a bit.

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Well, temps aside, the radar looks semi decent right now for what is expected. Final forecast does have some revisions down based on thermals

NW of I-95: 2.5-5” max of 6” further north

Along & SE of I-95: 1-3” 

South of I-66 Latitude: 0.5-2” 

Northern Neck Eastern Shore: 1-3” 

Sterling did a good job handling this one. The thermals ended up being RGEM like pre-storm despite it being incorrect on the SLP evolution. Hopefully I’m wrong, but this isn’t trending towards a good result unless we get absolutely blasted this afternoon. HRRR has been keeping this low key for several runs now which looks like it may end up being right. Globals were too cold at onset and skewed everything too snowy. 
 

Mouth still in minor pain. Just going to sit back and watch football and hopefully a good 2-3 hr snow period later in the lowlands. Good luck everyone. 

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3 minutes ago, bncho said:

No yeah this time it's we've had a good winter.
But marginal temps... relying on heavy rates....
Kinda seem familiar?

Yeah was trying to warn people yesterday about the cold air getting delayed little by little each model run but everyone wanted to look at the pretty snow maps 

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1 hour ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Thinking I'll go on a hike near the catocotins late morning today to try to ensure no matter what happens in the low lands I'm able to have a nice winters day. 

Do it!  Some years ago in a similar set-up, I drove just 33 miles from Germantown to South Mountain park and went from a slushy coating to 5 inches on the ground with cottonball sized flakes.  Even Frederick just 10-ish miles away only had an inch or so

Currently light rain and 38

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Briefly had some white rain in Reston as a batch of yellows came through even with the temp at 37. Bodes well for when rates improve later today but I’m heading out to the catoctins now. 

You’re gonna love that decision. Coating already on the grass near the base of the Watershed.
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