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1/19 - The Roulette Wheel 29 Black Storm - OBS


DDweatherman
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18 hours ago, rjvanals said:

NAMs still aren't overly enthused with the storm and have delayed the cold with DCA not getting to freezing until noon tomorrow

Thank god the NAMs were wrong and DCA won’t get below freezing until 4pm today.

Checking traffic cams South Mtn Wash/Frederick County line at ~1000 ft still looks to be rain so we have a ways to go toward the metro areas 

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Just now, rjvanals said:

Snowquester we were under a warning and hadn’t had a warning level event in a while. This time we’re in a advisory w multiple snow events the past few weeks 

No yeah this time it's we've had a good winter.
But marginal temps... relying on heavy rates....
Kinda seem familiar?

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2 minutes ago, rjvanals said:

Snowquester we were under a warning and hadn’t had a warning level event in a while. This time we’re in a advisory w multiple snow events the past few weeks 

Also snowquester heavy rates were missing. Rates are coming. Just got to get the temp to drop a bit.

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Well, temps aside, the radar looks semi decent right now for what is expected. Final forecast does have some revisions down based on thermals

NW of I-95: 2.5-5” max of 6” further north

Along & SE of I-95: 1-3” 

South of I-66 Latitude: 0.5-2” 

Northern Neck Eastern Shore: 1-3” 

Sterling did a good job handling this one. The thermals ended up being RGEM like pre-storm despite it being incorrect on the SLP evolution. Hopefully I’m wrong, but this isn’t trending towards a good result unless we get absolutely blasted this afternoon. HRRR has been keeping this low key for several runs now which looks like it may end up being right. Globals were too cold at onset and skewed everything too snowy. 
 

Mouth still in minor pain. Just going to sit back and watch football and hopefully a good 2-3 hr snow period later in the lowlands. Good luck everyone. 

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