rjvanals Posted Sunday at 11:53 AM Share Posted Sunday at 11:53 AM As I was pointing out yesterday but others dismissed temps will be an issue as the models started showing the Arctic front slowing down and we’re now hoping the cold can chase the precip Model trends early this morning show Arctic front has slowed down considerably since yesterday and is not fcst to clear the northern half of the fcst area until after 18Z. Meanwhile, models trends and microwave imagery through the snowfall rate product show precip arriving sooner than previously expected. Microwave passes since 0220Z showed that snow has been falling in the mountains since that time and a more recent pass from 0800Z showed that snow, at least aloft, has made it to areas just west of I-81. Further east, gridded NUCAPS data showed that 925 and 850 mb 0C isotherms are further north than model guidance suggest and given current temps in the upper 30s and slower trend on the passage of the Arctic front indicate that areas along and south of Interstate 66 and US-50 will see more rain or mixing with rain at the beginning of the precip event. Still, a 3-hr period of intense precip rates is expected this afternoon, mainly between 18-21Z, when Arctic air will be advancing southward. The low pressure system will be out of the picture by 00Z Monday with most of the snow gone, except in far northeast Maryland and in the mountains where snow will continue all night. New snow totals maps were changed slightly, basically to cut down on snow accumulations some, particulary along and south of Interstate 66 and US-50 and precip start time was adjusted to bring precip sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted Sunday at 11:54 AM Share Posted Sunday at 11:54 AM 36.9 and light rain near Reston. Can really see the radar beginning to pop, just need the temps to crash… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted Sunday at 12:02 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:02 PM I've been minimally invested with this one was enjoying some of the decent model runs but never really bought into anything more than 3" I'm going with 1-3" for my yard leaning more torwards the 1" and no im not being pessimistic i just know my area and how these type storms work out here. Temp up to 35.1. Good luck all hope I'm wrong for my house Edit: 36 now and climbing fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted Sunday at 12:02 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:02 PM Not the temps I thought I’d wake up to… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted Sunday at 12:04 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:04 PM 10 minutes ago, rjvanals said: As I was pointing out yesterday but others dismissed temps will be an issue as the models started showing the Arctic front slowing down and we’re now hoping the cold can chase the precip Model trends early this morning show Arctic front has slowed down considerably since yesterday and is not fcst to clear the northern half of the fcst area until after 18Z. Meanwhile, models trends and microwave imagery through the snowfall rate product show precip arriving sooner than previously expected. Microwave passes since 0220Z showed that snow has been falling in the mountains since that time and a more recent pass from 0800Z showed that snow, at least aloft, has made it to areas just west of I-81. Further east, gridded NUCAPS data showed that 925 and 850 mb 0C isotherms are further north than model guidance suggest and given current temps in the upper 30s and slower trend on the passage of the Arctic front indicate that areas along and south of Interstate 66 and US-50 will see more rain or mixing with rain at the beginning of the precip event. Still, a 3-hr period of intense precip rates is expected this afternoon, mainly between 18-21Z, when Arctic air will be advancing southward. The low pressure system will be out of the picture by 00Z Monday with most of the snow gone, except in far northeast Maryland and in the mountains where snow will continue all night. New snow totals maps were changed slightly, basically to cut down on snow accumulations some, particulary along and south of Interstate 66 and US-50 and precip start time was adjusted to bring precip sooner. Here’s a good spot to track the temp drop up on Camp David at~1800ft https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=KRSP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted Sunday at 12:04 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:04 PM My gut says lowlands win this one today. Columbia to Annopoils will get a heavy wet band that surprises everyone lol. I think the gfs has the idea. LFG 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ifindppl Posted Sunday at 12:05 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:05 PM Seems a little toasty for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
diatae Posted Sunday at 12:06 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:06 PM Good morning. It's hot af. 38/37 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
300 square feet Posted Sunday at 12:12 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:12 PM Up to 38/34 in Reston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Sunday at 12:16 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:16 PM 57 minutes ago, CAPE said: 6z Euro. Looks reasonable. PSU snow map. 6z Eps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted Sunday at 12:17 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:17 PM Somebody show the 6z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ifindppl Posted Sunday at 12:18 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:18 PM Getting some drizzle in Olney. Staying true to scientific empiricism, it does “feel” like snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted Sunday at 12:18 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:18 PM Started looking like this yesterday and probably even more true with morning temps warmer than expected. For most of us outside far N/W zones, most of the snow is going to fall in a 4-5 hour period this afternoon and evening. That band this afternoon should really rip as it comes through. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Sunday at 12:20 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:20 PM 15 minutes ago, dailylurker said: My gut says lowlands win this one today. Columbia to Annopoils will get a heavy wet band that surprises everyone lol. I think the gfs has the idea. LFG 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted Sunday at 12:21 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:21 PM Just now, WxUSAF said: Started looking like this yesterday and probably even more true with morning temps warmer than expected. For most of us outside far N/W zones, most of the snow is going to fall in a 4-5 hour period this afternoon and evening. That band this afternoon should really rip as it comes through. My thoughts as well. Everyone is going to freak when nothing happens until like 2. But when it hits it's going to be fun. Temps crashing, snow ripping, wind picking up. Should be fun. It will probably sit around 40 degrees until start time. Probably rain a bit this morning. 2-3 is my feeling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted Sunday at 12:23 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:23 PM 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Yup! Book it. Rain until 2 then we rip for a few hours while nw sees brighter sky to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted Sunday at 12:26 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:26 PM It would be hilarious if the RGEM had the right original idea 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted Sunday at 12:30 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:30 PM WB 6Z 3K NAM.... it never liked this storm.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted Sunday at 12:30 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:30 PM We knew last night we were in trouble ... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted Sunday at 12:32 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:32 PM 4 minutes ago, Terpeast said: It would be hilarious if the RGEM had the right original idea Loudoun county got cocky for alot of years but we're basically northern Prince William county now. Enjoy your 1" today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted Sunday at 12:35 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:35 PM 2 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: Loudoun county got cocky for alot of years but we're basically northern Prince William county now. Enjoy your 1" today I still think we have a shot at 3” or a little more when the arctic front passes with heavy banding along that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted Sunday at 12:36 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:36 PM Latest RAP 11Z: lucky if most of us see 2 inches. Image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted Sunday at 12:37 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:37 PM I said this from the beginning. Models always brings in the cold air faster than how it actually happens. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted Sunday at 12:39 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:39 PM I smell a bust. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Sunday at 12:40 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:40 PM Is it just the cold air that's slower, or is everything including the development of the storm? Because if it's everything, it wouldn't hurt totals as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Sunday at 12:41 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:41 PM There hasn't been any real change over the last 4 model cycles wrt temps at onset of precip here per the GFS and EURO. 36-37, and 37 is the forecast high. NAM seems too cold. An initial period of rain/mix has always been in the cards esp for I-95 and SE. My biggest concern was lack of precip, but that seems less of an issue on recent runs. 34 currently 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted Sunday at 12:41 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:41 PM Waking up to a busted forecast is a right of passage around here ... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted Sunday at 12:41 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:41 PM Just now, mitchnick said: Is it just the cold air that's slower, or is everything including the development of the storm? Because if it's everything, it wouldn't hurt totals as much. Cold air is slower, precip about the same. LWX says precip is faster, but I don’t see that yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Sunday at 12:42 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:42 PM 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: I smell a bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Sunday at 12:42 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:42 PM Oh jeez Panic thread still open? 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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