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1/19 - The Roulette Wheel 29 Black Storm - OBS


DDweatherman
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8 minutes ago, RDM said:

From the looks of radar, and the lack of returns, it's hard to imagine we're on the eve of a decent event (decent for around here given the past few years of nada).

It's not supposed to look like much for another few hours at least...don't spook the usual suspects...we don't need those posts already

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18 minutes ago, MountainGeek said:

This low level inversion is legit -- still hanging at 35/32 at 810ft, half a mile away 500' lower on the river is 32. On up the top ridge it's 38 at 1600ft. 

36 here, 33F about 3 blocks away (and ~150' lower)

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3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

AI 6z run cut back a bit on qpf consistent with other modeling. 

Latest runs also cut back quite a bit on QPF here in the highlands. I also canceled my LES chase this morning as it looks like the bands' forecast continue to inch northward. Not worth the chance of getting skunked for the kind of money airbnb charges. Good news it's still going to snow and the Commanders game was a thrill. 

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Not a promising sign for south of i-66/rt 50. North of that should still be on track. Gonna be an interesting afternoon

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Model trends early this morning show Arctic front has slowed
down considerably since yesterday and is not fcst to clear the
northern half of the fcst area until after 18Z. Meanwhile,
models trends and microwave imagery through the snowfall rate
product show precip arriving sooner than previously expected.
Microwave passes since 0220Z showed that snow has been falling
in the mountains since that time and a more recent pass from
0800Z showed that snow, at least aloft, has made it to areas
just west of I-81. Further east, gridded NUCAPS data showed that
925 and 850 mb 0C isotherms are further north than model
guidance suggest and given current temps in the upper 30s and
slower trend on the passage of the Arctic front indicate that
areas along and south of Interstate 66 and US-50 will see more
rain or mixing with rain at the beginning of the precip event.
Still, a 3-hr period of intense precip rates is expected this
afternoon, mainly between 18-21Z, when Arctic air will be
advancing southward. The low pressure system will be out of the
picture by 00Z Monday with most of the snow gone, except in far
northeast Maryland and in the mountains where snow will continue
all night. New snow totals maps were changed slightly,
basically to cut down on snow accumulations some, particulary
along and south of Interstate 66 and US-50 and precip start time
was adjusted to bring precip sooner.

 

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28 minutes ago, katabatic said:

Latest runs also cut back quite a bit on QPF here in the highlands. I also canceled my LES chase this morning as it looks like the bands' forecast continue to inch northward. Not worth the chance of getting skunked for the kind of money airbnb charges. Good news it's still going to snow and the Commanders game was a thrill. 

I just can't believe the Commanders. Wow wow wow! 

If they should manage to win this next game..........

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As I was pointing out yesterday but others dismissed temps will be an issue as the models started showing the Arctic front slowing down and we’re now hoping the cold can chase the precip 

 

Model trends early this morning show Arctic front has slowed
down considerably since yesterday and is not fcst to clear the
northern half of the fcst area until after 18Z. Meanwhile,
models trends and microwave imagery through the snowfall rate
product show precip arriving sooner than previously expected.
Microwave passes since 0220Z showed that snow has been falling
in the mountains since that time and a more recent pass from
0800Z showed that snow, at least aloft, has made it to areas
just west of I-81. Further east, gridded NUCAPS data showed that
925 and 850 mb 0C isotherms are further north than model
guidance suggest and given current temps in the upper 30s and
slower trend on the passage of the Arctic front indicate that
areas along and south of Interstate 66 and US-50 will see more
rain or mixing with rain at the beginning of the precip event.
Still, a 3-hr period of intense precip rates is expected this
afternoon, mainly between 18-21Z, when Arctic air will be
advancing southward. The low pressure system will be out of the
picture by 00Z Monday with most of the snow gone, except in far
northeast Maryland and in the mountains where snow will continue
all night. New snow totals maps were changed slightly,
basically to cut down on snow accumulations some, particulary
along and south of Interstate 66 and US-50 and precip start time
was adjusted to bring precip sooner.
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I've been minimally invested with this one was enjoying some of the decent model runs but never really bought into anything more than 3" I'm going with 1-3" for my yard leaning more torwards the 1" and no im not being pessimistic i just know my area and how these type storms work out here. Temp up to 35.1. Good luck all hope I'm wrong for my house

 

Edit: 36 now and climbing fast

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10 minutes ago, rjvanals said:

As I was pointing out yesterday but others dismissed temps will be an issue as the models started showing the Arctic front slowing down and we’re now hoping the cold can chase the precip 

 

Model trends early this morning show Arctic front has slowed
down considerably since yesterday and is not fcst to clear the
northern half of the fcst area until after 18Z. Meanwhile,
models trends and microwave imagery through the snowfall rate
product show precip arriving sooner than previously expected.
Microwave passes since 0220Z showed that snow has been falling
in the mountains since that time and a more recent pass from
0800Z showed that snow, at least aloft, has made it to areas
just west of I-81. Further east, gridded NUCAPS data showed that
925 and 850 mb 0C isotherms are further north than model
guidance suggest and given current temps in the upper 30s and
slower trend on the passage of the Arctic front indicate that
areas along and south of Interstate 66 and US-50 will see more
rain or mixing with rain at the beginning of the precip event.
Still, a 3-hr period of intense precip rates is expected this
afternoon, mainly between 18-21Z, when Arctic air will be
advancing southward. The low pressure system will be out of the
picture by 00Z Monday with most of the snow gone, except in far
northeast Maryland and in the mountains where snow will continue
all night. New snow totals maps were changed slightly,
basically to cut down on snow accumulations some, particulary
along and south of Interstate 66 and US-50 and precip start time
was adjusted to bring precip sooner.

Here’s a good spot to track the temp drop up on Camp David at~1800ft 

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=KRSP

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