psuhoffman Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 8 minutes ago, RDM said: From the looks of radar, and the lack of returns, it's hard to imagine we're on the eve of a decent event (decent for around here given the past few years of nada). It's not supposed to look like much for another few hours at least...don't spook the usual suspects...we don't need those posts already 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 0z Euro pretty much aligns with my thoughts perfectly. 18z AIFS nailed my thinking though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 before we start the radar hallucinations... 1am Sim radar 4am sim radar 7am sim radar 10am sim radar 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 32/30 Stafford, VA GO COMMANDERS! Hoping we get at least 2-3” here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 This low level inversion is legit -- still hanging at 35/32 at 810ft, half a mile away 500' lower on the river is 32. On up the top ridge it's 38 at 1600ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 18 minutes ago, MountainGeek said: This low level inversion is legit -- still hanging at 35/32 at 810ft, half a mile away 500' lower on the river is 32. On up the top ridge it's 38 at 1600ft. 36 here, 33F about 3 blocks away (and ~150' lower) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
300 square feet Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 36/34 in Reston. Temp has been slowly notching up since midnight. Not liking the trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
katabatic Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: AI 6z run cut back a bit on qpf consistent with other modeling. Latest runs also cut back quite a bit on QPF here in the highlands. I also canceled my LES chase this morning as it looks like the bands' forecast continue to inch northward. Not worth the chance of getting skunked for the kind of money airbnb charges. Good news it's still going to snow and the Commanders game was a thrill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Not a promising sign for south of i-66/rt 50. North of that should still be on track. Gonna be an interesting afternoon .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Model trends early this morning show Arctic front has slowed down considerably since yesterday and is not fcst to clear the northern half of the fcst area until after 18Z. Meanwhile, models trends and microwave imagery through the snowfall rate product show precip arriving sooner than previously expected. Microwave passes since 0220Z showed that snow has been falling in the mountains since that time and a more recent pass from 0800Z showed that snow, at least aloft, has made it to areas just west of I-81. Further east, gridded NUCAPS data showed that 925 and 850 mb 0C isotherms are further north than model guidance suggest and given current temps in the upper 30s and slower trend on the passage of the Arctic front indicate that areas along and south of Interstate 66 and US-50 will see more rain or mixing with rain at the beginning of the precip event. Still, a 3-hr period of intense precip rates is expected this afternoon, mainly between 18-21Z, when Arctic air will be advancing southward. The low pressure system will be out of the picture by 00Z Monday with most of the snow gone, except in far northeast Maryland and in the mountains where snow will continue all night. New snow totals maps were changed slightly, basically to cut down on snow accumulations some, particulary along and south of Interstate 66 and US-50 and precip start time was adjusted to bring precip sooner. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 6z GFS Nice run but not buying the 5 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 35 at 6am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 34.5 and patiently waiting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 6z Euro. Looks reasonable. PSU snow map. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Temp up to 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 28 minutes ago, katabatic said: Latest runs also cut back quite a bit on QPF here in the highlands. I also canceled my LES chase this morning as it looks like the bands' forecast continue to inch northward. Not worth the chance of getting skunked for the kind of money airbnb charges. Good news it's still going to snow and the Commanders game was a thrill. I just can't believe the Commanders. Wow wow wow! If they should manage to win this next game.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lucketts Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 38/35 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stradivarious Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Ravens vs Commanders Super Bowl? Maybe… 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 As I was pointing out yesterday but others dismissed temps will be an issue as the models started showing the Arctic front slowing down and we’re now hoping the cold can chase the precip Model trends early this morning show Arctic front has slowed down considerably since yesterday and is not fcst to clear the northern half of the fcst area until after 18Z. Meanwhile, models trends and microwave imagery through the snowfall rate product show precip arriving sooner than previously expected. Microwave passes since 0220Z showed that snow has been falling in the mountains since that time and a more recent pass from 0800Z showed that snow, at least aloft, has made it to areas just west of I-81. Further east, gridded NUCAPS data showed that 925 and 850 mb 0C isotherms are further north than model guidance suggest and given current temps in the upper 30s and slower trend on the passage of the Arctic front indicate that areas along and south of Interstate 66 and US-50 will see more rain or mixing with rain at the beginning of the precip event. Still, a 3-hr period of intense precip rates is expected this afternoon, mainly between 18-21Z, when Arctic air will be advancing southward. The low pressure system will be out of the picture by 00Z Monday with most of the snow gone, except in far northeast Maryland and in the mountains where snow will continue all night. New snow totals maps were changed slightly, basically to cut down on snow accumulations some, particulary along and south of Interstate 66 and US-50 and precip start time was adjusted to bring precip sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 36.9 and light rain near Reston. Can really see the radar beginning to pop, just need the temps to crash… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 I've been minimally invested with this one was enjoying some of the decent model runs but never really bought into anything more than 3" I'm going with 1-3" for my yard leaning more torwards the 1" and no im not being pessimistic i just know my area and how these type storms work out here. Temp up to 35.1. Good luck all hope I'm wrong for my house Edit: 36 now and climbing fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Not the temps I thought I’d wake up to… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 10 minutes ago, rjvanals said: As I was pointing out yesterday but others dismissed temps will be an issue as the models started showing the Arctic front slowing down and we’re now hoping the cold can chase the precip Model trends early this morning show Arctic front has slowed down considerably since yesterday and is not fcst to clear the northern half of the fcst area until after 18Z. Meanwhile, models trends and microwave imagery through the snowfall rate product show precip arriving sooner than previously expected. Microwave passes since 0220Z showed that snow has been falling in the mountains since that time and a more recent pass from 0800Z showed that snow, at least aloft, has made it to areas just west of I-81. Further east, gridded NUCAPS data showed that 925 and 850 mb 0C isotherms are further north than model guidance suggest and given current temps in the upper 30s and slower trend on the passage of the Arctic front indicate that areas along and south of Interstate 66 and US-50 will see more rain or mixing with rain at the beginning of the precip event. Still, a 3-hr period of intense precip rates is expected this afternoon, mainly between 18-21Z, when Arctic air will be advancing southward. The low pressure system will be out of the picture by 00Z Monday with most of the snow gone, except in far northeast Maryland and in the mountains where snow will continue all night. New snow totals maps were changed slightly, basically to cut down on snow accumulations some, particulary along and south of Interstate 66 and US-50 and precip start time was adjusted to bring precip sooner. Here’s a good spot to track the temp drop up on Camp David at~1800ft https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=KRSP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 My gut says lowlands win this one today. Columbia to Annopoils will get a heavy wet band that surprises everyone lol. I think the gfs has the idea. LFG 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ifindppl Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Seems a little toasty for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
diatae Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Good morning. It's hot af. 38/37 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
300 square feet Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Up to 38/34 in Reston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 57 minutes ago, CAPE said: 6z Euro. Looks reasonable. PSU snow map. 6z Eps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Somebody show the 6z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ifindppl Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Getting some drizzle in Olney. Staying true to scientific empiricism, it does “feel” like snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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