Warm Nose Posted Sunday at 04:37 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:37 AM 3 minutes ago, jayyy said: Certainly odd that you’re 5 degrees warmer than lowland Howard county. Weather is weird Yeah seems to be an elevation thing. I'm at 800ft and am decently warmer (+5 deg) than folks down at 550. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted Sunday at 04:38 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:38 AM Now... if Sterling would just expand the WSW a bit to the SE, at least to the fall line... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted Sunday at 04:38 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:38 AM Just NE of Germantown I've gone from 33 a couple hours ago to 36 (elev. around 550) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWC Split Posted Sunday at 04:38 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:38 AM 42F at 1k’ in Haymarket on Bull Run “mountain” and 33F at 445 feet in the lowlands of Haymarket. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted Sunday at 04:38 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:38 AM hey yall, i've not been looking recently. how we looking for the storm and more specifically NW moco? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted Sunday at 04:40 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:40 AM Herpderps Obviously still anyone’s guess where these bands ultimately setup and our area’s climo comes into play.. but it’s certainly interesting to see 3-4 models tonight with a similar output (having the max near 95) Wonder if they’re onto something. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted Sunday at 04:41 AM Author Share Posted Sunday at 04:41 AM 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: My team won and the models trending the right way. I'm fucking pumped If you over perform on this tomorrow im going to be mandatory thread starter or get 12 hours moderator privileges I had your boys winning tonight too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted Sunday at 04:41 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:41 AM Temps always go up just before a frontal passage. The fact that they are going up now is probably good. It might mean the front is close. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Sunday at 04:42 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:42 AM 30 here 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted Sunday at 04:42 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:42 AM hey yall, i've not been looking recently. how we looking for the storm and more specifically NW moco?3-6” is a reasonable forecast I’d say 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted Sunday at 04:43 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:43 AM 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Herpderps Phew, purples. Panic over. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted Sunday at 04:43 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:43 AM SW Frederick contribution sitting at 32. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted Sunday at 04:45 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:45 AM Temp got down to 32, now up to 34. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted Sunday at 04:46 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:46 AM Just now, BlizzardNole said: This is looking real nice for N&W That map is several hours old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lucketts Posted Sunday at 04:47 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:47 AM 35/34 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted Sunday at 04:48 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:48 AM Up to 33 at my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted Sunday at 04:49 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:49 AM 16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Herpderps The Canadian models were a lot of our least favorites for days with their super amped solutions that brought mainly rain to most of us, but now at the 11th hour they have Baltimore points north in the bullseye. I have no idea whether to believe them but I will say there’s no better time than now to be in the bullseye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted Sunday at 04:49 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:49 AM 3 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: That map is several hours old. Oops you're right -- deleted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted Sunday at 04:51 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:51 AM 1 minute ago, BlizzardNole said: Oops you're right -- deleted It's still the most recent, just been a while since an update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted Sunday at 04:51 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:51 AM 26 minutes ago, ravensrule said: Wow, that’s great. Hook me up. There’s no better time than now to be in the bullseye. I’m ready for it to snow! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Sunday at 04:53 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:53 AM 2 minutes ago, Fozz said: The Canadian models were a lot of our least favorites for days with their super amped solutions that brought mainly rain to most of us, but now at the 11th hour they have Baltimore points north in the bullseye. I have no idea whether to believe them but I will say there’s no better time than now to be in the bullseye. They suck and make adjustments towards the preponderance of guidance at the 11th hour. No credit given. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted Sunday at 04:53 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:53 AM My team won and the models trending the right way. I'm fucking pumpedAmazing night.Who is this town ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Sunday at 04:57 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:57 AM 3 minutes ago, Ji said: Amazing night. Who is this town ? I don't even know who we are right now dude 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted Sunday at 05:00 AM Share Posted Sunday at 05:00 AM 5 minutes ago, Ji said: Amazing night. Who is this town ? Championship snow town 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted Sunday at 05:00 AM Share Posted Sunday at 05:00 AM Image 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Sunday at 05:02 AM Share Posted Sunday at 05:02 AM This is really late, last 24 hours I've been on the road a lot. But this would have been pretty much the same map I would have put out last night if I was able too. Nothing has really changed. The high or low end of these ranges will depend on banding which will be a nowcast thing. The little bit of a gap between the 4-8" zones accounts for the little bit of a "jump" that will happen between the initial SW induced boundary wave and the coastal. 4-6" will be way more common in the 4-8" zone but I do think some isolated 8" totals will pop up somewhere in those 2 areas. As the deform band with the coastal gets going it will cut off the moisture transport to the west and the precip with the initial wave will die. This does create a bit of a gap, but I don't think it will be nearly as bad as some of the high resolution models were showing. It's nice that the first threat of both high probability "windows" hit, makes it easier to track if the next few waves miss. I don't think we are done yet though...as the pattern relaxes I bet we get another wave similar to this to hit. And it still possible one of the waves this week trends north. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Sunday at 05:04 AM Share Posted Sunday at 05:04 AM 25 minutes ago, RDM said: Now... if Sterling would just expand the WSW a bit to the SE, at least to the fall line... NOOOOO you want them to be conservative and then catch up as you are measuring 6" and saying WOW its ripping fatties 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted Sunday at 05:05 AM Share Posted Sunday at 05:05 AM 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: This is really late, last 24 hours I've been on the road a lot. But this would have been pretty much the same map I would have put out last night if I was able too. Nothing has really changed. The high or low end of these ranges will depend on banding which will be a nowcast thing. The little bit of a gap between the 4-8" zones accounts for the little bit of a "jump" that will happen between the initial SW induced boundary wave and the coastal. 4-6" will be way more common in the 4-8" zone but I do think some isolated 8" totals will pop up somewhere in those 2 areas. As the deform band with the coastal gets going it will cut off the moisture transport to the west and the precip with the initial wave will die. This does create a bit of a gap, but I don't think it will be nearly as bad as some of the high resolution models were showing. It's nice that the first threat of both high probability "windows" hit, makes it easier to track if the next few waves miss. I don't think we are done yet though...as the pattern relaxes I bet we get another wave similar to this to hit. And it still possible one of the waves this week trends north. That’s a great map. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted Sunday at 05:06 AM Share Posted Sunday at 05:06 AM 6 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Image Guessing upslope lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Sunday at 05:07 AM Share Posted Sunday at 05:07 AM 30 minutes ago, CAPE said: Euro+GFS+3km NAM > Canadians Anyway still about 80% snow cover here. Hoping for a few inches to freshen up the snow and fill in the bare spots before the Arctic onslaught. The HERPDERPS was never as crazy out to lunch NW as the RGEM and GGEM. ALso the canadiens were the first to see there was a storm coming at all...then yes they were way over amplified compared to all the others...but no more so than the others were under amplified until about 24 hours out. So.... I dunno none of the guidance did amazing with this, but thats also par for these types of setups where its a relatively minor feature in the longwave flow creating the storm...basically just a little bit of spin in the flow traversing an arctic boundary creating cross boundary flow and it doesn't take much to squeeze out a 3-5" snow when you have this kind of arctic boundary hangin around...but models wont see this well at any range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now