wawarriors4 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Temp got down to 32, now up to 34. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Just now, BlizzardNole said: This is looking real nice for N&W That map is several hours old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lucketts Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 35/34 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Up to 33 at my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Herpderps The Canadian models were a lot of our least favorites for days with their super amped solutions that brought mainly rain to most of us, but now at the 11th hour they have Baltimore points north in the bullseye. I have no idea whether to believe them but I will say there’s no better time than now to be in the bullseye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 3 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: That map is several hours old. Oops you're right -- deleted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 1 minute ago, BlizzardNole said: Oops you're right -- deleted It's still the most recent, just been a while since an update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 26 minutes ago, ravensrule said: Wow, that’s great. Hook me up. There’s no better time than now to be in the bullseye. I’m ready for it to snow! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 2 minutes ago, Fozz said: The Canadian models were a lot of our least favorites for days with their super amped solutions that brought mainly rain to most of us, but now at the 11th hour they have Baltimore points north in the bullseye. I have no idea whether to believe them but I will say there’s no better time than now to be in the bullseye. They suck and make adjustments towards the preponderance of guidance at the 11th hour. No credit given. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 My team won and the models trending the right way. I'm fucking pumpedAmazing night.Who is this town ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 3 minutes ago, Ji said: Amazing night. Who is this town ? I don't even know who we are right now dude 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 5 minutes ago, Ji said: Amazing night. Who is this town ? Championship snow town 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Image 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 This is really late, last 24 hours I've been on the road a lot. But this would have been pretty much the same map I would have put out last night if I was able too. Nothing has really changed. The high or low end of these ranges will depend on banding which will be a nowcast thing. The little bit of a gap between the 4-8" zones accounts for the little bit of a "jump" that will happen between the initial SW induced boundary wave and the coastal. 4-6" will be way more common in the 4-8" zone but I do think some isolated 8" totals will pop up somewhere in those 2 areas. As the deform band with the coastal gets going it will cut off the moisture transport to the west and the precip with the initial wave will die. This does create a bit of a gap, but I don't think it will be nearly as bad as some of the high resolution models were showing. It's nice that the first threat of both high probability "windows" hit, makes it easier to track if the next few waves miss. I don't think we are done yet though...as the pattern relaxes I bet we get another wave similar to this to hit. And it still possible one of the waves this week trends north. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 25 minutes ago, RDM said: Now... if Sterling would just expand the WSW a bit to the SE, at least to the fall line... NOOOOO you want them to be conservative and then catch up as you are measuring 6" and saying WOW its ripping fatties 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: This is really late, last 24 hours I've been on the road a lot. But this would have been pretty much the same map I would have put out last night if I was able too. Nothing has really changed. The high or low end of these ranges will depend on banding which will be a nowcast thing. The little bit of a gap between the 4-8" zones accounts for the little bit of a "jump" that will happen between the initial SW induced boundary wave and the coastal. 4-6" will be way more common in the 4-8" zone but I do think some isolated 8" totals will pop up somewhere in those 2 areas. As the deform band with the coastal gets going it will cut off the moisture transport to the west and the precip with the initial wave will die. This does create a bit of a gap, but I don't think it will be nearly as bad as some of the high resolution models were showing. It's nice that the first threat of both high probability "windows" hit, makes it easier to track if the next few waves miss. I don't think we are done yet though...as the pattern relaxes I bet we get another wave similar to this to hit. And it still possible one of the waves this week trends north. That’s a great map. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 6 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Image Guessing upslope lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 30 minutes ago, CAPE said: Euro+GFS+3km NAM > Canadians Anyway still about 80% snow cover here. Hoping for a few inches to freshen up the snow and fill in the bare spots before the Arctic onslaught. The HERPDERPS was never as crazy out to lunch NW as the RGEM and GGEM. ALso the canadiens were the first to see there was a storm coming at all...then yes they were way over amplified compared to all the others...but no more so than the others were under amplified until about 24 hours out. So.... I dunno none of the guidance did amazing with this, but thats also par for these types of setups where its a relatively minor feature in the longwave flow creating the storm...basically just a little bit of spin in the flow traversing an arctic boundary creating cross boundary flow and it doesn't take much to squeeze out a 3-5" snow when you have this kind of arctic boundary hangin around...but models wont see this well at any range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 NOOOOO you want them to be conservative and then catch up as you are measuring 6" and saying WOW its ripping fattiesYou took the words right out of my mouth. I feel like when we’re under a WSW, we either bust low or barely hit the lower range. When they go conservative, we get a pleasant surprise. Maybe those occurrences are just the ones that stick out in my mind but I’m still going with it!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 so excited to get a daytime snowstorm tomorrow. my sleep schedule has gotten so cooked by the late-night storms that peak at like 4 am. nice to see a snowstorm peaking at like 4 pm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 8 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Image well its a rap 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Steadier march down in temps now. I sat between 32 and 31.8 for about 2-3 hours. In the last 30 minutes, have dropped down to 30.5, and dropping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 wtf i didn't realize soundings looked like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: This is really late, last 24 hours I've been on the road a lot. But this would have been pretty much the same map I would have put out last night if I was able too. Nothing has really changed. The high or low end of these ranges will depend on banding which will be a nowcast thing. The little bit of a gap between the 4-8" zones accounts for the little bit of a "jump" that will happen between the initial SW induced boundary wave and the coastal. 4-6" will be way more common in the 4-8" zone but I do think some isolated 8" totals will pop up somewhere in those 2 areas. As the deform band with the coastal gets going it will cut off the moisture transport to the west and the precip with the initial wave will die. This does create a bit of a gap, but I don't think it will be nearly as bad as some of the high resolution models were showing. It's nice that the first threat of both high probability "windows" hit, makes it easier to track if the next few waves miss. I don't think we are done yet though...as the pattern relaxes I bet we get another wave similar to this to hit. And it still possible one of the waves this week trends north. I could bust low along 95, I do think banding sets up there, but looking at soundings the snow ratios might be really low. There is a mid level layer that gets a little warm during the heaviest snow, not mix warm but warm enough to inhibit ratios a lot. Also the VVs don't necessarily align with the DGZ until pretty late along 95. But...if the ratios end up closer to 10-1 there they could get 4-5" right along 95 easily. I almost upped that area into the 3-5 but decided to be conservative. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 3 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said: wtf i didn't realize soundings looked like this They don't all look that friendly though.... But if the 3k soundings are correct I will bust low along 95, and I won't be shocked if I do. I went low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 9 minutes ago, jayyy said: You took the words right out of my mouth. I feel like when we’re under a WSW, we either bust low or barely hit the lower range. When they go conservative, we get a pleasant surprise. Maybe those occurrences are just the ones that stick out in my mind but I’m still going with it!! Over the years I might have verified warning snowfall more times when I wasn't under a warning then when I was... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 The others said it earlier: we're starting as rain in the lowlands and then finishing up with a strong backside once the cold air comes in. I don't see any other way for us to get the totals the models are spitting out. The air is already warming. 2-4 seems likely, if it overperforms then up to 6 isn't off the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 WB 0Z EURO 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 From the looks of radar, and the lack of returns, it's hard to imagine we're on the eve of a decent event (decent for around here given the past few years of nada). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 10 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 0Z EURO I'm suing ECMWF for stealing my snow map 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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