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1/19 - The Roulette Wheel 29 Black Storm - OBS


DDweatherman
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1 minute ago, jayyy said:


Already down to freezing in the Ellicott city area per obs. Thinking you’re right. And if the euro / rgem has the right idea of a near 95 qpf max, places like Columbia, EC, owings mills could see 

Huh...now how does Ellicott city have lower elevation yet is cooler than where I am? (No panic just curious about the nuances of elevation in this state)

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1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Please save this GIF for any future references if somebody ever worries about the RGEM again, lol

It is always wrong it seems but it sure does crank that coastal band over 95.

 

Just now, DarkSharkWX said:

igu
1737374400-ZGoq5mTKrKc.png

That looks more like climo distribution of snow than the other models.  

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Euro and RGEM with the 95 band via the coastal. Gfs about 15-20 miles further west with the goods but still gives 95 corridor borderline warning snowfall

*May*have to raise that 2-4” forecast for areas just west of 95 if this keeps up

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4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Huh...now how does Ellicott city have lower elevation yet is cooler than where I am? (No panic just curious about the nuances of elevation in this state)

Elevation is not the sole determining factor of microclimate temp variations. Consider that Baltimore, MD is closer to the Chesapeake Bay which will always have some impact. Urban density also matters. 

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6 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

definitely some differences here even with minor changes in elevation.  32-33F down towards Mass Ave (Spring Valley).  37-39F up closer to Tenleytown / Ft Reno (highest point in DC).

 

6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Huh...now how does Ellicott city have lower elevation yet is cooler than where I am? (No panic just curious about the nuances of elevation in this state)

 

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Why is that, I wonder? You'd think it'd be the opposite.

This is likely due to a low level temperature inversion. You can see this on the mesonet website. There is a significant difference between Westminster and Clarksville.

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1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Why is that, I wonder? You'd think it'd be the opposite.

Tons of factors for temp variations. Of course we can broad brush temperature "zones" but so many factors can impact temps even down to a street-to-street level. 
Existing snowpack might be more plentiful at one location versus another, proximity to water matters, urban density matters, wind direction (even if light), heck...even the exact site of a thermometer matters (if the placement is "to code") 

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