T. August Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 36.2° after a high of 38.7° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Dropping fast under clear skies and no wind 40.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 High of 44, current 42. Remaining snowcover took a big hit today, but hopefully we can a least a couple tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 42 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Dropping fast under clear skies and no wind 40.3Yes! And it’s only 5:09 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 lol 18z Herpderp now the weeniest model for the area 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Greetings from a hill(?) in Nelson County. At about 1000ft. We'll see... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Just now, WxUSAF said: lol 18z Herpderp now the weeniest model for the area It was never as bad as the rgem with the NW over amped thing too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: lol 18z Herpderp now the weeniest model for the area Please post the Herpes, we’ve posted everything else 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 My remaining snow heading into tomorrow my silly snowstick ornament still around 1" 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Down to 34/33 with drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Hit 49 here today. Currently 44/33 We will see how quickly the cold air actually makes it in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 OMFG regarding the gfs qpf panic. 1. stop letting that damn blue/purple color change on the map influence your impression of the run. Yes green to blue is this dramatic change but if the actual qpf went from .53 to .47 that’s noise. It’s a .05 qpf difference. And that’s what it was for most places on the gfs. 2. the kuchera snowfall map took an additional hit because it looks like it reduced the ratios a little bit NW of 95. Maybe it has a warm layer it didn’t have. Maybe the VVs in the DGz are less aligned. I haven’t looked and probably won’t because going from a prediction of 7” from .46 qpf to 5.8” from .40 (Westminster) is Fucking NOISE!!! Both are within the same predicted range and neither would be a bust and if you think that level of change run to run is a big deal you’re in the wrong game. 8 4 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 36.5/34.7 after a high of 39 here 21057 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 I'm always prepared for a bust. Just looked at IMBY going back to 04-05, I have 28 events between 2-4". 4.25" and 1.75" dont count I'd say 50% met range expectations 20% overperformer 30% underperformer I dont know what this means. But I like numbers Numbers are fun, but the confusion matrix in ML has taught me just how misleading they can be. To me, a 2-4/3-6 event is a success if the grass is covered. Small branches on the ground can stick up, but I only accept it on small quantities. And that’s my version of not knowing what that means. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: OMFG regarding the gfs qpf panic. 1. stop letting that damn blue/purple color change on the map influence your impression of the run. Yes green to blue is this dramatic change but if the actual qpf went from .53 to .47 that’s noise. It’s a .05 qpf difference. And that’s what it was for most places on the gfs. 2. the kuchera snowfall map took an additional hit because it looks like it reduced the ratios a little bit NW of 95. Maybe it has a warm layer it didn’t have. Maybe the VVs in the DGz are less aligned. I haven’t looked and probably won’t because going from a prediction of 7” from .46 qpf to 5.8” from .40 is Fucking NOISE!!! Both are working the same predicted range and neither would be a bust and if you think that level of change run to run is a big deal you’re in the wrong game. Agreed. It is a 3-5 storm. And has always been a 3-5 storm. Moving way to fast for it to be any more than that. Outside of a lolly or slant stick somewhere. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Just now, clskinsfan said: Agreed. It is a 3-5 storm. And has always been a 3-5 storm. Moving way to fast for it to be any more than that. Outside of a lolly somewhere. Pretty much always been that way for you guys and 2-4 for us. People really need to manage their expectations. Cities ain't getting 6" from this. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: Agreed. It is a 3-5 storm. And has always been a 3-5 storm. Moving way to fast for it to be any more than that. Outside of a lolly somewhere. I think this is right but I think there is a small band that could get 8” in places but very localized and hard to pin that down. In general 3-5 probably will characterize the larger Max band well. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 7 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Pretty much always been that way for you guys and 2-4 for us. People really need to manage their expectations. Cities ain't getting 6" from this. Yup...not all that long ago this looked like a decent minor or so level event, probably no more than 3-5" anywhere, with a blast of cold on its heels. Still a lot of fun! Then we had a few model runs that gave DC and other areas 6"+ and all too many people raised their expectations to that level. So tearing of hair and gnashing of teeth at every single blip. I get the concern we've had about temperatures in the metro areas, that's certainly legitimate, but this belief that we're all going to score a warning-level snow (or else it's a failure) is a bit much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 46 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Don’t panic at the gfs being dry as ass then Who said I'm panicking about anything, tho? There's a difference between panic and expressing a general annoyance at your geography, lol Nah I'm just gonna enjoy the snow day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 21 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: lol 18z Herpderp now the weeniest model for the area Then it must be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 The clouds parted today to allow the torch, and now that the sun is down they return to keep me warm tonight. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: Interesting fact: some people go to church on Saturday. All religions aren't the same. You're welcome. Not to clog the thread, but some of the more devout go multiple times a week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 32 minutes ago, goodwidp said: Forecast map from CWG: https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2025/01/18/dc-snow-cold-forecast/ That's what you get when all you have is a ruler to make a map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Down to 38.8 already. Dews 32.5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 2 hours ago, MillvilleWx said: Be on the lookout for falling iguanas after your rain The RGEM still has the falling iguana line too far north and west. But it ticked a bit more south last run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: That's what you get when all you have is a ruler to make a map. Actually a bit surprised they're not going somewhat higher for the N MD counties. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 3 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: Actually a bit surprised they're not going somewhat higher for the N MD counties. Their forecasts/maps leave a lot to be desired. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 42/33 at IAD and I'm noticing it getting REALLY dark outside. 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 5 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Down to 38.8 already. Dews 32.5 Pretty amazing difference on the other side of the Blue Ridge. Warm here. Concerning me a little bit to be honest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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