psuhoffman Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 30 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Complete cave by the RGEM it appears This run yes. But to be fair it (along with parent ggem) was the first to see this storm at all and while at the end it did cave to where the euro and gfs are now if you go back 72 hours they trended toward it like 80% of the way before it came the final 20%. Remember the gfs and euro were weak OTS waves when the ggem had the storm. I’m not telling anyone how to grade and what to weight when doing it but I don’t only look at the final 24 hours in my analysis. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 6 minutes ago, mappy said: The legend not being in order based on time is annoying the piss outta me on this graphic. Took me a second to realize it, but as a geography major, that is stupid 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 My point and click has added sleet to my total. Not surprised. I’ve def lucked out before where I’ve stayed cold enough at the mid levels to stay all snow, but have also definitely lost qpf to sleet while the column cooled. Every bit of elevation helps in that regard, which is why places to my NW, like New Freedom, Manchester, etc. will do 2” or so better than me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 2 minutes ago, mappy said: My point and click has added sleet to my total. Not surprised. I’ve def lucked out before where I’ve stayed cold enough at the mid levels to stay all snow, but have also definitely lost qpf to sleet while the column cooled. Every bit of elevation helps in that regard, which is why places to my NW, like New Freedom, Manchester, etc. will do 2” or so better than me. I only think that’s for the very first hour or so. If you look at the hourly it has one hour period of slight chance sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 18 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Love how far south that 2-4 zone goes. Lotta wiggle room. It’s an analog based model at very low resolution that smooths the edges so be careful using it to define things like that. It’s a great look. Just saying. 10 minutes ago, mappy said: I’ve been down both sides before. It’s much better in the band than just outside lol We are in the game for the NW band for sure. We’re not in danger of being in the rain screw zone our only possible disappointment is if we end to between the band that likely hits just NW if the rain snow boundary and the band further NW that’s often where the best moisture convergence hits where the mid levels are conducive for good snow growth and banding. I think we get into that one but that kind of thing is a nowcast thing. 7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Darn it I'm closer to Towson, lol Is there something geographic that makes it hard for bands to set up over the city? Or is it literally random? If you’re near Towson Mt Washington is south of you. Chill. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It’s an analog based model at very low resolution that smooths the edges so be careful using it to define things like that. It’s a great look. Just saying. We are in the game for the NW band for sure. We’re not in danger of being in the rain screw zone our only possible disappointment is if we end to between the band that likely hits just NW if the rain snow boundary and the band further NW that’s often where the best moisture convergence hits where the mid levels are conducive for good snow growth and banding. I think we get into that one but that kind of thing is a nowcast thing. If you’re near Towson Mt Washington is south of you. Chill. I'm just south of Towson closer to Morgan State--guess I shoulda been more accurate about that. Mt. Washington is west of me. Btw not panicking at all man. Just wondering, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 18 Author Share Posted January 18 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I'm just south of Towson closer to Morgan State--guess I shoulda been more accurate about that. Mt. Washington is west of me. Btw not panicking at all man. Just wondering, lol Don’t panic at the gfs being dry as ass then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Gfs coming in much drier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Just now, TSSN+ said: Gfs coming in much drier Is it? I need to investigate. I was talking more for keeping us snow down here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 GFS holds btwSmh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: Gfs coming in much drier Pretty much noise around the metros qpf wise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, Ji said: Smh Don't cry. Might only be 0.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, Ji said: Smh Eastern Loudoun downgraded to a special weather statement 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Lost good amount of aerial qpf. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Gfs coming in much drier Terrible post. Let Randy handle it 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 18 Author Share Posted January 18 2 minutes ago, Ji said: Smh That was directed at Randy’s pbp wasn’t it? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Looks like a hold down this way. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 GFS looks just slightly less amped and farther SE accordingly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Just now, DDweatherman said: That was directed at Randy’s pbp wasn’t it? Lol He was loud and wrong 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 hour ago, DarkSharkWX said: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 It's fine. Right in line with Euro's qpf. No worries here! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 18 Author Share Posted January 18 Just now, HighStakes said: It's fine. Right in line with Euro's qpf. No worries here! I think my bar is 5” but maybe 4 or 4.5” 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 That was directed at Randy’s pbp wasn’t it? Lol Yeah, because somebody else said it was much drier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Just now, Ji said: Yeah, because somebody else said it was much drier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Just now, Ji said: Yeah, because somebody else said it was much drier For most it is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: I think my bar is 5” but maybe 4 or 4.5” 4 or 5 would be acceptable but it's time for an overperformer here. Time for a solid 7 or slightly more. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 18 Author Share Posted January 18 Just now, Ji said: Yeah, because somebody else said it was much drier It’s an IMBY sport, you know that better than anyone. Why people pretend they care wtf happens at CAPE’s house when they’re 100 miles west or NW in a completely different climo is funny to me. It’s nice when we all win but it’s tough. It’s hard to get snow these days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 4 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: For most it is. Just coming back down to earth, coming into consensus with everything. I don’t think 6+ for the majority of Maryland was ever going to happen. Still a great run for pretty much all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goodwidp Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Forecast map from CWG: https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2025/01/18/dc-snow-cold-forecast/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 hour ago, Terpeast said: Mby station is reporting 47.5 as the high, now 47. Under sunny skies. Full two degrees warmer than other obs, so probably 45 is the real temperature. May need to calibrate my station temp… After posting this, I’m down to 42 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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