stormtracker Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: why is it having so many issues now that are above and beyond it’s just typical suckage. Just curious. Convective feedback suck issues. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: High was forecast at 47 (lol), made it to 39 41 up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: High was forecast at 47 (lol), made it to 39 I know a lot of the time it doesn’t end up mattering, but it’s nice to see temps a good 4-5° cooler than the forecast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 5 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: 41 up here I spoke too soon. Went up to 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I know the 12k NAM is having convective feedback issues. 7 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Convective feedback suck issues. For anyone familiar with Pitch Meeting (Ryan George)... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmk Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Sun came out recently and were up to 43 after hovering in the high 30s most of the day. Forecast was 44. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 247pm afternoon AFD from LWX re the thing tomorrow SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Have upgraded the remaining Winter Storm Watch to Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories. Regardless of headline type, a band of heavy snow is expected to move from west to east across the CWA Sunday afternoon. Model soundings are impressive with this frontogenesis band showing plentiful lift and moisture through the DGZ. WPC snowband probability tool shows objects from the HREF of 0.05-0.10" per hour. At a 10:1 ratio, this would equate to about an inch an hour. Given higher ratios in the band as the colder air rushes in, would not be surprised with reports of 2" an hour in this band. Thankfully this band will be rather transient and move eastward quickly as colder Arctic Air rushes in from the NW. Synoptically, an UL trough will move eastward into the Ohio Valley tonight. A piece of energy will move ahead of this feature being one of the parts of this storm. The region will reside in the left exit/diffluent region of a ~100 kt H5 jet. This is favorable for upward motion, as indicated by several methods including the long Q- vectors. Good agreement in FGEN bands forming along the Arctic boundary as well. These bands will yield the higher rates. Snow will quickly end Sunday evening as the drier Arctic air moves in. Upslope snow showers will persist through Sunday night into Monday morning across the Alleghenies. High ratio fluff is expected, with the Winter Storm Warning continuing through daybreak. Given wind gusts of 35-45 mph Sunday night in the mountains, significant blowing and drifting of snow is likely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Cold ground and remnant snow cover likely keeping temps on the cool side. Mesonet data shows ground temps haven't budged which is good. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Forecast high of 45 only made it to 41. It’s currently 40/35 and cloudy. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wtkidz Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 I mentioned this in the Banter thread, but this event kind of reminds me of Feb. 14, 2015. Not exactly but similar in some ways. We got a burst of snow squalls near evening for about an hour or so (got 2" where I'm at, though I know it was somewhat localized), which was followed by the Arctic blast on strong winds. It actually turned quite brutal out that evening, and remained extremely cold the next week. That's the last time I recall getting the level of cold that's projected for next week, on the heels of tomorrow's event. And the system tomorrow looks to be better than the one in 2015 (more general snow overall). I suspect we'll have a similar scenario with rapidly falling temperatures as the really cold air blasts in. (ETA: That 2015 blast also kicked off an amazing 4 week period of winter!). 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 36/35 after an earlier high of 38. 1st time above freezing here in over 2 weeks. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 42.3/36 Palm trees swaying gently, tiki torches lit and the smell of citronella wafting across the lanai. Ah, the tropics in winter 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Just now, H2O said: 42.3/36 Palm trees swaying gently, tiki torches lit and the smell of citronella wafting across the lanai. Ah, the tropics in winter Be on the lookout for falling iguanas after your rain 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Currently in Winchester. Car temp reads a balmy 51° with sunny skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Pretty sunny in Aldie now temp is up to 44 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 NAMs still aren't overly enthused with the storm and have delayed the cold with DCA not getting to freezing until noon tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 3km NAM is still lovely for my yard. 18z even better. Wish it could be real lol. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 This whole lead up to the storm has been odd...despite what any model shows it just feels like a 2-3" event. Hoping for some upside but it just has that feel to me thinking the globals have thrown us the old okie doak on qpf. I'm never mad about a fresh blanket of snow though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 WB 18Z 3K NAM 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 8 minutes ago, H2O said: 42.3/36 Palm trees swaying gently, tiki torches lit and the smell of citronella wafting across the lanai. Ah, the tropics in winter Honestly ready for some swaying palm trees...after putting up with this white concrete shit for a week plus here in the (typically) winter pampas of SoFfxCo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z 3K NAM Can you at least wait for the run to finish? lol damn. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Forget the 2 Nam delinquents and go with the 15z Rap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Can you at least wait for the run to finish? lol damn. It's virtually over by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Nothing wrong with the placement of the qpf but it’s missing 40% of it. WTF. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Well, the first prerequisite for a winter storm here has been met: the day-before torch. 50F here, blazing sun, and not a flake of snow left except piles and in some well-shaded areas. Never fails. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Looking at the soundings product on Pivotal for the 3k, and it basically shows most start around 8-9:1 (10:1 in favored spots in N MD, 15:1 here in the mountains). Soundings increase from there with 95 around 10:1, NW around 12-13:1, favored climo 15:1 and mountains around 20:1. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 28 minutes ago, yoda said: 247pm afternoon AFD from LWX re the thing tomorrow SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Have upgraded the remaining Winter Storm Watch to Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories. Regardless of headline type, a band of heavy snow is expected to move from west to east across the CWA Sunday afternoon. Model soundings are impressive with this frontogenesis band showing plentiful lift and moisture through the DGZ. WPC snowband probability tool shows objects from the HREF of 0.05-0.10" per hour. At a 10:1 ratio, this would equate to about an inch an hour. Given higher ratios in the band as the colder air rushes in, would not be surprised with reports of 2" an hour in this band. Thankfully this band will be rather transient and move eastward quickly as colder Arctic Air rushes in from the NW. Synoptically, an UL trough will move eastward into the Ohio Valley tonight. A piece of energy will move ahead of this feature being one of the parts of this storm. The region will reside in the left exit/diffluent region of a ~100 kt H5 jet. This is favorable for upward motion, as indicated by several methods including the long Q- vectors. Good agreement in FGEN bands forming along the Arctic boundary as well. These bands will yield the higher rates. Snow will quickly end Sunday evening as the drier Arctic air moves in. Upslope snow showers will persist through Sunday night into Monday morning across the Alleghenies. High ratio fluff is expected, with the Winter Storm Warning continuing through daybreak. Given wind gusts of 35-45 mph Sunday night in the mountains, significant blowing and drifting of snow is likely. Lost me at "thankfully" 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 18 minutes ago, mitchnick said: It's virtually over by then. Yeah my bad I was looking at the 6 hour p-type map. Sorry @Weather Will 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Lost me at "thankfully" Yeah wtf was that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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