1/19 - The Roulette Wheel 29 Black Storm - OBS

[DDweatherman]

Will the final spin be a good one? Will Ji be upset with his 3”? Will the ball land on zero and deliver an RGEM solution from yesterday? Will there be football banter also mentioned? Am I here bringing good luck from the great Keystone state? Will Randy have to skip mimosas this week?

[TSSN+]

3 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Will the final spin be a good one? Will Ji be upset with his 3”? Will the ball land on zero and deliver an RGEM solution from yesterday? Will there be football banter also mentioned? Am I here bringing good luck from the great Keystone state? Will Randy have to skip mimosas this week?

Ready over here in the dump. Trash bag measuring system in place. 

[vastateofmind]

1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

Will the final spin be a good one? Will Ji be upset with his 3”? Will the ball land on zero and deliver an RGEM solution from yesterday? Will there be football banter also mentioned? Am I here bringing good luck from the great Keystone state? Will Randy have to skip mimosas this week?

Regardless...we can't bitch that we didn't have a few weeks of deep effing winter in 2024-25. I'll enjoy a fresh coating of white tomorrow...which will be locked in as concrete for most of the coming week. Hate that part of it, but I know plenty here enjoy it. Currently, 41/31.

[T. August]

37/32 

[Curlyq]

That Eagles game tomorrow should be fun.

[WxUSAF]

Channeling @Deck Pic

39/35, light rain. Excited for my snow!

[mitchnick]

AI looks very similar. May be a tad lighter on qpf vs 6z, but not much at all if it is.

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

I  want to say the 12z aifs is better than 0z in qpf at least. 

[Interstate]

38.1/35.2

[Interstate]

Just now, mitchnick said:

AI looks very similar. May be a tad lighter on qpf, but not much at all if it is.

Does it take into consideration todays rain?

[Curlyq]

You can hear Bing Crosby and Rosemary Clooney singing...

Snow, snow, snow, snow, snow
It won't be long before we'll all be there with snow
Snow, snow, I want to wash my hands, my face and hair with snow
Snow, I long to clear a path and lift a spade of snow
Snow, oh, to see a great big man entirely made of snow, snow

Where it's snowing, all winter through
That's where I want to be
Snowball throwing, that's what I'll do
How I'm longing to ski, through the snow

Those glistening houses that seem to be built of snow
Snow, oh, to see a mountain covered with a quilt of snow
What is Christmas with no snow
No white Christmas with no snow, snow

I'll soon be there with snow, I'll wash my hair with snow
And with a spade of snow, I'll build a man that's made of snow
I'd love to stay up with you but I recommend a little shuteye
Go to sleep and dream of snow, snow, snow, snow

[mappy]

38/34

point and click forecast is 3-7”

[mitchnick]

Just now, Interstate said:

Does it take into consideration todays rain?

No. I'm just looking at 6 hour panels beginning with the snow.

[diatae]

39. If it rained today, it was so light I couldn't see it from indoors. Blue skies popping out. Ready for my lowland 2" snow followed by deep winter. Let's get glaciered! The only question is whiskey or red wine?

[Warm Nose]

Sunny

41

[psuhoffman]

3 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Maybe its just me having grown up in Vienna only a few miles out of the beltway, but feeling a little nervous being close to the fall line even in Ashburn

I lived next to frying pan park just south of Herndon from 1994-2006. I noticed in marginal temp storms there would often end up being two sharp gradients. The first was often the true fall line near McLean. Many times there was a big difference in snowfall west v east of there. Then there was another just NW of me somewhere near sterling where snow would increase again. The NW side of Dulles would do better than me a lot. If both those lines failed in marginal setups the next was along the blue ridge west of Leesburg where elevations go up near Pirceville. Round hill often did good. 
 

you’re west of the first 2 so you better be ok because if not that means everyone east of the blue ridge is screwed lol. 

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, mappy said:

38/34

point and click forecast is 3-7”

I think 5” is a reasonable over under for you. 

[CAPE]

39 here currently. Was 41 around noon. Forecast high of 45.

[psuhoffman]

It was snowing nicely and 31 when I left state college an hour ago.  

[Terpeast]

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I lived next to frying pan park just south of Herndon from 1994-2006. I noticed in marginal temp storms there would often end up being two sharp gradients. The first was often the true fall line near McLean. Many times there was a big difference in snowfall west v east of there. Then there was another just NW of me somewhere near sterling where snow would increase again. The NW side of Dulles would do better than me a lot. If both those lines failed in marginal setups the next was along the blue ridge west of Leesburg where elevations go up near Pirceville. Round hill often did good. 
 

you’re west of the first 2 so you better be ok because if not that means everyone east of the blue ridge is screwed lol. 

I’ll try and hold the line for all of our sakes! 

[stormtracker]

15 minutes ago, mappy said:

38/34

point and click forecast is 3-7”

I hope you get 2!

more than I do

[psuhoffman]

I know the 12k NAM is having convective feedback issues. But other than “it sucks” anyone have a theory why it is having so main trouble with this specific storm v others?  It doesn’t do this with every wave.  Yea it sucks in general but why is it having so many issues now that are above and beyond it’s just typical suckage.  Just curious.  

[SnowtoRain]

10 minutes ago, CAPE said:

39 here currently. Was 41 around noon. Forecast high of 45.

You must have a forested wetland micro climate, all the Mesonet stations near you are 43. 42.8 in Easton. 

[SnowenOutThere]

14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I lived next to frying pan park just south of Herndon from 1994-2006.

Seems like I live in nearly the exact same spot you used to, will say what you said about the two snowfall "jumps" still holds up. Despite being right next to Dulles distance wise they always seem to do significantly better in these setups than my backyard. Though I do wonder if that second jump in snowfall will continue to move further northwest over time...

[pazzo83]

Just now, SnowtoRain said:

You must have a forested wetland micro climate, all the Mesonet stations near you are 43. 42.8 in Easton. 

does seem it's gonna be a couple degrees colder than progged - 40.5F here (forecast was for mid 40s).

[pazzo83]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

Seems like I live in nearly the exact same spot you used to, will say what you said about the two snowfall "jumps" still holds up. Despite being right next to Dulles distance wise they always seem to do significantly better in these setups than my backyard. Though I do wonder if that second jump in snowfall will continue to move further northwest over time...

around Tysons and across the river into upper NW DC is when you hit around 400+ feet in elevation (from Tenleytown we have a clear view of the Tysons "skyline" and can see Reston pretty well), so I'd imagine that is where that first jump is.

[Dendritious]

22 minutes ago, diatae said:

39. If it rained today, it was so light I couldn't see it from indoors. Blue skies popping out. Ready for my lowland 2" snow followed by deep winter. Let's get glaciered! The only question is whiskey or red wine?

Why choose?

[CAPE]

Just now, SnowtoRain said:

You must have a forested wetland micro climate, all the Mesonet stations near you are 43. 42.8 in Easton. 

I am in the woods with snow cover. My station usually runs a degree warm compared to nearby obs. 

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z HRRR

[stormtracker]

8 minutes ago, CAPE said:

39 here currently. Was 41 around noon. Forecast high of 45.

High was forecast at 47 (lol), made it to 39