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1/22-1/22 Winter Storm Threat


Brick Tamland
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1 minute ago, WXNewton said:

Looks like the Canadian. I am going to go back and look at last week's storm and see how the NAM played out from what it was showing 84 hrs out. Seems like it definitely nailed the warm nose and lack of precip.

NAM crushed our dreams last week here with showing all the sleet we got instead of snow. 

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Just now, Brick Tamland said:

NAM crushed our dreams last week here with showing all the sleet we got instead of snow. 

Yeah it was never good for my area either, but in reality it played out very similar to what it showed. They snow lover in me didn't want to believe it, but in reality I should have put way more stock into it. 

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Need to watch the interaction between our shortwave and the cutoff off the pacific coast as well. GFS is the most aggressive causing the weaker, kind of 2 part system, but most guidance ticked towards it at 6z. Not sure how that factors in with other changes, but something to watch nonetheless.

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7 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

RGEM is actually south from previous runs but at the end of its time-frame 

This means the 12Z CMC should come in a little south of its 0Z with slightly lower thicknesses and a little further S snow line. Also, 12Z RGEM well south of NAM.

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3 minutes ago, Tony Sisk said:

That is very far in the gulf

The 12Z 84 RGEM is ~150 miles further S with the Gulf low vs the 0Z CMC 96 and precip shield is significantly further south along with it. Thus, I’m expecting the 12Z CMC to come in significantly south of the 0Z CMC with the precip/snow line/540 line, etc.

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7 minutes ago, GaWx said:

The 12Z 84 RGEM is ~150 miles further S with the Gulf low vs the 0Z CMC 96 and precip shield is significantly further south along with it. Thus, I’m expecting the 12Z CMC to come in significantly south of the 0Z CMC with the precip/snow line/540 line, etc.

Afternoon showers for Fort Myers to Jax if this trend keeps up!  Ugh!

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