1/22-1/22 Winter Storm Threat

[Uncle Nasty]

7 hours ago, Cheeznado said:

SREF probabilities shifted significantly south. I think I might be lucky to see any snow at all.

A small surprise  can happen. At this point, give me 1" of snow to make the roads white and icy, and I'll be happy.  I don't want automobile  accidents,  of course,  just a mini version of Atlanta  Snowmageddon.  I hope you score a decent event. Still time to ignore models and let Mother Nature do her thing!

[neatlburbwthrguy]

Are there any reliable models that still show any snow in ATL?   If not I will drive south to Macon or may need to go further south to Tifton or Albany?  

[suzook]

6 minutes ago, neatlburbwthrguy said:

Are there any reliable models that still show any snow in ATL?   If not I will drive south to Macon or may need to go further south to Tifton or Albany?  

Chances are dwindling. Maybe 40 or 50 miles south of ATL could pick up an inch.

[SnowGoose69]

6 minutes ago, neatlburbwthrguy said:

Are there any reliable models that still show any snow in ATL?   If not I will drive south to Macon or may need to go further south to Tifton or Albany?  

The Euro has consistently shown the warm advection band reaching them.  Otherwise just the high res GFS did today.  RGEM was close but just south

[PackGrad05]

Both euro and eps shifted NW. I’m surprised folks here have given up unless I’m the only one in southeast wake or east of that.
Still going to be some pretty snow falling and might surprise some folks.


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[bankdawg]

12 minutes ago, neatlburbwthrguy said:

Are there any reliable models that still show any snow in ATL?   If not I will drive south to Macon or may need to go further south to Tifton or Albany?  

im hoping for an inch in Cordele

[USCG RS]

3 hours ago, PackGrad05 said:

Both euro and eps shifted NW. I’m surprised folks here have given up unless I’m the only one in southeast wake or east of that.
Still going to be some pretty snow falling and might surprise some folks.


.

Whatever does fall will stick, at least on grassy areas. If at night, then it sticks everywhere. The sun does here is quite something. Last week is was 28/29 with ZR and the blacktop was still wet. 

[StantonParkHoya]

If it was a situation where we were on the rain/snow line and if it shifted 50 miles west we’d be screwed, I promise we’d be effed. But of course it won’t work when we need it.

[fig]

12 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

Both euro and eps shifted NW. I’m surprised folks here have given up unless I’m the only one in southeast wake or east of that.
Still going to be some pretty snow falling and might surprise some folks.


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Still holding out hope for a few inches down in Wilmington. Rarely do we not have temp issues. 

[Leesville Wx Hawk]

Both euro and eps shifted NW. I’m surprised folks here have given up unless I’m the only one in southeast wake or east of that.
Still going to be some pretty snow falling and might surprise some folks.


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Yall deserve something because that is the screw zone for sure. I’m 4 miles NE of airport therefore I’m in trouble this time.


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[neatlburbwthrguy]

19 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The Euro has consistently shown the warm advection band reaching them.  Otherwise just the high res GFS did today.  RGEM was close but just south

when does the next hrrr come out?  I need that to have ATL in play

[NorthHillsWx]

18 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

Both euro and eps shifted NW. I’m surprised folks here have given up unless I’m the only one in southeast wake or east of that.
Still going to be some pretty snow falling and might surprise some folks.


.

Can you post 

[neatlburbwthrguy]

18 minutes ago, bankdawg said:

im hoping for an inch in Cordele

I think that you are in a great spot.  Cordele I could see getting 2-3 inches possibly.

[NorthHillsWx]

The other thing that’s annoying about this is it isn’t even crazy cold anymore. Mid 20s and lower teens been replaced with 30s and mid to upper teens. As in almost the same as our last cold blast. Like if you’re going to suppress our storm to Florida at least give us something interesting 

[GaWx]

18Z Euro: still going for at least a once in a generation storm in much of deep SE/Gulf coast! Looks to be a pretty quick mover. I’m fading these amounts as of now in deference to some of the drier other models.

Kuchera snow:

Sleet:

 

ZR:

 

qpf:

[gamecockinupstateSC]

26 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Can you post 

 

[Prismshine Productions]

Just now, gamecockinupstateSC said:

 

never doubt the NW trend... watch it come back into warnings for central SC

[bankdawg]

10 minutes ago, GaWx said:

18Z Euro: still going for at least a once in a generation storm in much of deep SE/Gulf coast! Looks to be a pretty quick mover. I’m fading these amounts as of now in deference to some of the drier other models.

Kuchera snow:

Sleet:

 

ZR:

 

qpf:

4" in Albany would have to be a record.

[StantonParkHoya]

Jacksonville NC is my call

[AJF0602]

12 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Jacksonville NC is my call

I like this call I'm located in Jacksonville haha

[Brick Tamland]

35 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

The other thing that’s annoying about this is it isn’t even crazy cold anymore. Mid 20s and lower teens been replaced with 30s and mid to upper teens. As in almost the same as our last cold blast. Like if you’re going to suppress our storm to Florida at least give us something interesting 

I thought the extreme cold was the reason it would be so suppressed, too. So why is it still being so suppressed if we aren't even going to get the extreme cold?

[Prismshine Productions]

1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said:

I thought the extreme cold was the reason it would be so suppressed, too. So why is it still being so suppressed if we aren't even going to get the extreme cold?

thickness of the HP... reason it isnt as cold is because of the fact Hudson Bay is not completely iced over so it had a chance to moderate a bit but the thickness is still there

[PackGrad05]

The suppression is not the only reason.
The storm is less amped and stayed too positive tilt to really ramp up and move north. The path is there if it strengthens


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[Silver Meteor]

Seems a decent Low but the track isn't useful for us:

 

[NorthHillsWx]

5 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

thickness of the HP... reason it isnt as cold is because of the fact Hudson Bay is not completely iced over so it had a chance to moderate a bit but the thickness is still there

That and it’s not just suppression. It’s just a flat wave. It has no chance to go up the coast 

[suzook]

Going down to 16 tonight, 18 tomorrow night and 13 Tuesday night. I don't know what people are talking about it not being cold. Maybe the coast is gonna be warmer than modeled?

[franklin NCwx]

9 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

I thought the extreme cold was the reason it would be so suppressed, too. So why is it still being so suppressed if we aren't even going to get the extreme cold?

Lol...

[NorthHillsWx]

5 minutes ago, suzook said:

Going down to 16 tonight, 18 tomorrow night and 13 Tuesday night. I don't know what people are talking about it not being cold. Maybe the coast is gonna be warmer than modeled?

It’s very cold but not extreme. Tuesday has moved from a high of 26 to 32 here and lowest temp is 16 which is about 1 degree colder than lowest we got last cold snap Friday morning 

[franklin NCwx]

10 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

The suppression is not the only reason.
The storm is less amped and stayed too positive tilt to really ramp up and move north. The path is there if it strengthens


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Not in the upper levels.  Stop looking at the surface maps!

[franklin NCwx]

18 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

I thought the extreme cold was the reason it would be so suppressed, too. So why is it still being so suppressed if we aren't even going to get the extreme cold?

Wrong!