1/21 - 1/22 Winter Storm Threat

[dsaur]

temp 22.7  rh 46.3 dpt 5.2  wb 19.4  at 7:00.  The radar shows me just about getting into the heavier virga.

[NorthHillsWx]

Ummm yea, about those models. WWA for us. Seems likely to keep expanding NW

[donsutherland1]

A potentially historic Gulf Coast snowstorm is getting underway. Light snow is now falling in New Orleans and a blizzard warning is in effect for parts of Louisiana. Below is a measurable snowfall contingency table for select cities.

[Joe Clark]

17 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

I'm a bit concerned about the evening commute in the triad wouldn't take much moisture to cause problems. Wouldn't be surprised to see WWAs issued up to Guilford county sometime this morning. News 2 is not really buying into any snow for Guilford county, guess we'll see!

Agreed. One of the other local Mets out of W-S said this morning to expect a dusting in the triad.

[senc30]

Welp, woke up this morning to no 85 and no hurricane but the amounts did change avain. Now showing 5-8 inches in Jacksonville. What a roller coaster ride this has been. 

[PackGrad05]

If I'm local mets, I wouldn't change my forecast much.  I'm still going 0-1" for I-85 to Wake, 1-2" for Johnston County east, perhaps 2-3" near the coast

[wncsnow]

Anyone have the 06Z euro?

[wxmoose]

9 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Anyone have the 06Z euro?

 

[olafminesaw]

[neatlburbwthrguy]

6 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

It is not hitting the ground, at least not where I am.  I did see FFC changed the advisory for Metro ATL up to 2 inches of snow, and the WSW just south of ATL now says up to 5 inches.

[SnowGoose69]

3 minutes ago, neatlburbwthrguy said:

It is not hitting the ground, at least not where I am.  I did see FFC changed the advisory for Metro ATL up to 2 inches of snow, and the WSW just south of ATL now says up to 5 inches.

Downstream of Atlanta I didn’t really see anyone reporting precip til cloud decks reached 5,000 or so but sometimes once precip reaches areas that are much colder it can reach the ground from higher cloud bases so those reports might be accurate under areas where the echoes on radar are more intense 

[neatlburbwthrguy]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Downstream of Atlanta I didn’t really see anyone reporting precip til cloud decks reached 5,000 or so but sometimes once precip reaches areas that are much colder it can reach the ground from higher cloud bases so those reports might be accurate under areas where the echoes on radar are more intense 

Nice, yeah I am hoping these early returns help moisten up atmosphere.  Are you still thinking ATL area may get an inch possibly?

[suzook]

15 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

It's Virga. I just drove through that.

[DeltaPilot]

Son in LaGrange says light snow started about 20 minutes ago, 750ish am.

[NorthHillsWx]

The NAM drops .2-.3” QPF in the central piedmont of NC tonight. It was 0.05-0.10” last night. This will be a much bigger deal in a hurry if we get .2” QPF in these temps. I would not write off an over performer (2”) for piedmont areas given latest and continued NW trends

[dsaur]

3 minutes ago, DeltaPilot said:

Son in LaGrange says light snow started about 20 minutes ago, 750ish am.

That patch is closing in on me next. I get my tornadoes from down there, so surely snow comes from there too, lol.

[GaWx]

HOUSTON BUSH LGT SNOW 28 23 81 N17 30.55S VSB 1 WCI 16   6HR MIN TEMP: 28; 6HR MAX TEMP: 31; 6HR PCP: 0.10;  
 

  HOUSTON HOBBY LGT SNOW 28 25 88 N16G25 30.52S FOG WCI 16   6HR MIN TEMP: 28; 6HR MAX TEMP: 32; 6HR PCP: 0.01;

    *HOUSTON SW AP LGT SNOW 29 26 90 NE9G22 30.56R WCI 20   6HR MIN TEMP: 29; 6HR MAX TEMP: 32; 6HR PCP: 0.09

 So, 6 hour precip 1AM-7AM EST Houston area measured max of 0.10”. That’s lighter than these 6Z runs have fwiw:

6Z GFS: ~0.20”

6Z Euro: ~0.20”


6Z NAM 3 km ~0.20”

 

Is the lighter than modeled amount having fallen in Houston area 1-7AM EST significant? Anyone have an opinion?

[BooneWX]

Enjoy the nowcasting folks. Fingers crossed for an overperformer. 

[Prismshine Productions]

12z HRRRR

[DeltaPilot]

Prob should move to OBS thread for those of us about to be in it.

[Maggie Valley Steve]

12 minutes ago, GaWx said:

HOUSTON BUSH LGT SNOW 28 23 81 N17 30.55S VSB 1 WCI 16   6HR MIN TEMP: 28; 6HR MAX TEMP: 31; 6HR PCP: 0.10;  
 

  HOUSTON HOBBY LGT SNOW 28 25 88 N16G25 30.52S FOG WCI 16   6HR MIN TEMP: 28; 6HR MAX TEMP: 32; 6HR PCP: 0.01;

    *HOUSTON SW AP LGT SNOW 29 26 90 NE9G22 30.56R WCI 20   6HR MIN TEMP: 29; 6HR MAX TEMP: 32; 6HR PCP: 0.09

 So, 6 hour precip 1AM-7AM EST Houston area measured max of 0.10”. That’s lighter than these 6Z runs have fwiw:

6Z GFS: ~0.20”

6Z Euro: ~0.20”


6Z NAM 3 km ~0.20”

 

Is the lighter than modeled amount having fallen in Houston area 1-7AM EST significant? Anyone have an opinion?

Reports I'm seeing suggests accumulations are increasing and virtually all of the freeway systems are snow covered. Snow is covering Seawall Blvd in Galveston at this time. A friend in Beaumont is reporting 3 inches and moderate snow. Jefferson County is under it's first Blizzard Warning since records have been kept back to the late 1800's,

[Brick Tamland]

HRRR has the snow here around 8 PM and the RAP looks like it is a little earlier around 6 PM.

[bankdawg]

5 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

12z HRRRR

is this accurate?

[blueheels2]

Hate to ask but what’s the start time in Lillington/Fayettevile area?  Don’t want to get stuck in a traffic disaster 

[GaWx]

Baton Rouge modeled amounts 1-7AM EST 6Z runs:

Euro 0.17”

GFS 0.25”

Actual 0.04”

BATON ROUGE LGT SNOW 27 22 81 NE8 30.55R WCI 19   6HR MIN TEMP: 27; 6HR MAX TEMP: 37; 6HR PCP: 0.04;

Is this significant?

[wake4est]

3 minutes ago, blueheels2 said:

Hate to ask but what’s the start time in Lillington/Fayettevile area?  Don’t want to get stuck in a traffic disaster 

 

[metalicwx367]

20 minutes ago, GaWx said:

HOUSTON BUSH LGT SNOW 28 23 81 N17 30.55S VSB 1 WCI 16   6HR MIN TEMP: 28; 6HR MAX TEMP: 31; 6HR PCP: 0.10;  
 

  HOUSTON HOBBY LGT SNOW 28 25 88 N16G25 30.52S FOG WCI 16   6HR MIN TEMP: 28; 6HR MAX TEMP: 32; 6HR PCP: 0.01;

    *HOUSTON SW AP LGT SNOW 29 26 90 NE9G22 30.56R WCI 20   6HR MIN TEMP: 29; 6HR MAX TEMP: 32; 6HR PCP: 0.09

 So, 6 hour precip 1AM-7AM EST Houston area measured max of 0.10”. That’s lighter than these 6Z runs have fwiw:

6Z GFS: ~0.20”

6Z Euro: ~0.20”


6Z NAM 3 km ~0.20”

 

Is the lighter than modeled amount having fallen in Houston area 1-7AM EST significant? Anyone have an opinion?

How did the HRRR do? That 12Z run is trying to give us nearly 10 inches of snow. Most likely overdone but it also has no freezing rain. Just straight to sleet and then all moderate to heavy snow. Euro also has barely any freezing rain. It just has half the QPF that the high-res models are showing. 

 

Our winter storm warning amount has increased from 1 inch of snow to 2 inches with 0.10 of ice on top of that.

[Brick Tamland]

Latest from the RAP.

[The Ole Bucket]

Got family in north Florida. No way that Kuchera map verifies for Duval/St Johns county.. right?!

[wake4est]

I am ready and waiting for the NAM to do some nasty things for us. Bring it.