1/22-1/22 Winter Storm Threat

[GaWx]

8 minutes ago, metalicwx367 said:

33 and sleet rn lol. Started a good 18 hours early. 

 

 

The sleet is consistent with the modeled 850s of +1 as of now at AYS.

[wncsnow]

Closer 

[GaWx]

0Z Euro NW shift vs 18Z

[Thrasher Fan]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

0Z Euro NW shift vs 18Z

And more overall moisture

[GaWx]

Just now, Thrasher Fan said:

And more overall moisture

Indeed, here’s 0Z Euro qpf:

 

Here’s Kuchera:

 

[GaWx]

0Z Euro sleet

 

0Z ZR:

 

[dsaur]

7 minutes ago, GaWx said:

0Z Euro sleet

 

0Z ZR:

 

Right on our doorstep and such a disparity of model results still. General trends start to agree, but extents not so much.

[gallopinggertie]

Looks like Jacksonville will be on the edge of the wintry precip. I would issue a WSW if I were the NWS just to be safe, after all Gainesville is under one…

[negative-nao]

Would it be 15:1 ratios or 10:1 ratios in the Charleston area for snowfall

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, metalicwx367 said:

33 and sleet rn lol. Started a good 18 hours early. 

 

 

We just got some snow pellets over the last 5 minutes since ~12:50AM! This came from the streak of wintry that gave you sleet earlier. First frozen precip here in 7 years. Here they were shaped like sleet but were softer and white. They made sleet like noises when landing. Temp 35.4F. Our modeled 850s are a bit colder, near -1C. Interesting that that light precip made it to the ground. Our dewpoint isn’t overly low, low to mid 20s.
 I’m easily excited!

[negative-nao]

Can someone post snow totals using the The GRAF weather model  for South Carolina

[gallopinggertie]

8 minutes ago, GaWx said:

We just got some snow pellets over the last 5 minutes since ~12:50AM! First frozen precip here in 7 years. These were shaped like sleet but were softer and white. Temp 35.4F. Our modeled 850s are a bit colder, near -1C. I’m easily excited!

Sounds like snow pellets or graupel, aka sleet that was coated with rime crystals. 

Congrats on the frozen precip! You’ve now outdone both Seattle and Portland for the winter. (Very sad achievement for the Pacific Northwest, one of only two or three truly snowless winters I have experienced here). 

[Jmoon]

9 minutes ago, GaWx said:

We just got some snow pellets over the last 5 minutes since ~12:50AM! First frozen precip here in 7 years. These were shaped like sleet but were softer and white. Temp 35.4F. Our modeled 850s are a bit colder, near -1C. I’m easily excited!

That's awesome my friend. Happy for you. Enjoy it!

[Tullioz]

The HRRR has shown a significant NW trend since the 18z run.

 

[Tullioz]

The NW trend continues on the NAM as well.

[gamecockinupstateSC]

[gamecockinupstateSC]

[Shenanagins1091]

Sleet in Gulf Shores. Can't believe this is going to happen still lol

[lilj4425]

18 minutes ago, gamecockinupstateSC said:

 

I will be shocked if I get an inch of snow here in Greenville but the models are definitely trending wetter/more northwest and this is in the NAM’s wheelhouse. 

[GaWx]

34 minutes ago, gamecockinupstateSC said:

 

That must be the 12km NAM. Here’s the 3km NAM, which has ~no snow in ATL vs 3.2” on the 12km:

 

Check out the reason: N end of qpf on 3km NAM is quite a bit south on 12km NAM:

6Z NAM 3km qpf: ATL none

 

6Z NAM 12km qpf: ATL gets 0.35! Why? Isn’t the 3km more accurate?

[Regan]

4am et

[CentralNC]

Raleigh folks must be asleep.  Y'all gonna get sticking snow later this evening.  Check out the NAM

[ST21]

Seeing a blizzard warning on the gulf coast is blowing my mind

[suzook]

Coastal peeps need to be worried about too much of a NW trend. Remember what happened last week? Threading a needle between snow or slop.

[Regan]

34 minutes ago, CentralNC said:

Raleigh folks must be asleep.  Y'all gonna get sticking snow later this evening.  Check out the NAM

Interesting seeing forecasts calling for virtually nothing in Raleigh to a flurry even after the trends, to .5, to 2in or more. All over the place. 

[suzook]

4 minutes ago, Regan said:

Interesting seeing forecasts calling for virtually nothing in Raleigh to a flurry even after the trends, to .5, to 2in or more. All over the place. 

Everyone sticking to their original forecast at the moment. I do think that changes in a few hours.

[suzook]

A raging virga storm over the ATL area. None of this is hitting the ground. And where is everyone???? Possible historic event, and everyone is sleeping?? Wake up!!!

[mclean02]

28 minutes ago, ST21 said:

Seeing a blizzard warning on the gulf coast is blowing my mind

Wow I saw that today incredible. And apparently Charlotte is expecting snow i had already thrown my towel in Sunday morning lol!

[WXNewton]

WWA now up to Mecklenburg County and the Lake Norman area, I expect them to be extended even more after 12z guidance. 

[olafminesaw]

I'm a bit concerned about the evening commute in the triad wouldn't take much moisture to cause problems. Wouldn't be surprised to see WWAs issued up to Guilford county sometime this morning. News 2 is not really buying into any snow for Guilford county, guess we'll see!